Sokol Zápy v Pardubice II prediction · 3. liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sokol ZápyDrawPardubice II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Sokol Zápy 60%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sokol Zápy are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sokol Zápy 60%, draw 20%, Pardubice II 20%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Sokol Zápy v Pardubice IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sokol Zápy win60%

Draw20%

Pardubice II win20%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGroup B · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sokol Zápy

Pardubice II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. liga - CFL B

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Sokol Zápy	11	+13	24
5	Pardubice II	10	+11	17

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sokol zápy winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

60% The market47%

Us60%

~~Market~~47%

We make Sokol Zápy a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sokol Zápy v Pardubice II~~2.29 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL B this season · since 11 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 24 v 17~~3 v 5

~~The market · Sokol Zápy win~~47% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sokol Zápy win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sokol Zápy win	60%	47%	+13
Draw	20%	24%	−4
Pardubice II win	20%	29%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	68%	65%	+3
Both teams to score	63%	66%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	87%	83%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	47%	44%	+3
Sokol Zápy or draw	80%	71%	+9
Sokol Zápy clean sheet	29%	–	–
Pardubice II clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.5 3.5 2.3 1 6.5 8.6 5.1 2.2 2 7.6 9.2 5.7 2.4 3 5.8 7.0 4.3 4 3.3 4.0 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sokol Zápy down, Pardubice II across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,349 3. liga - CFL B matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - CFL B matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.8% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sokol Zápy at home: 3.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Pardubice II away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.29 goals for Sokol Zápy, 1.25 for Pardubice II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SOK 4–0 PAR · PAR 1–2 SOK · PAR 0–1 SOK · SOK 2–0 PAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL B this season · since 11 Sept

SOKOL ZÁPY

WWWDLW2–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 2–1

PARDUBICE II

DWLWLW2–2 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 6–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mladá Boleslav II	12	+21	26
2	Jablonec II	11	+16	24
3	Sokol Zápy	11	+13	24
4	Benátky nad Jizerou	12	+9	21
5	Pardubice II	10	+11	17
6	Baník Souš	11	+7	16
7	Neratovice-Byškovice	12	−2	16
8	Varnsdorf	10	0	15
9	Čáslav	11	−10	14
10	Teplice II	11	−3	13
11	Chrudim	12	−10	13
12	Slovan Liberec II	11	−8	11
13	Hradec Králové II	11	−3	10
14	Horní Ředice	10	−13	9
15	Sokol Brozany	11	−8	8
16	Velké Hamry	12	−20	8