Sokol Brozany v Mladá Boleslav II prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Sokol Brozany 1–3 Mladá Boleslav II MLADÁ BOLESLAV II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mladá Boleslav II win~~40%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.537

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.407

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mladá Boleslav II win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Mladá Boleslav II 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 33–26–40
1′KICK-OFF Sokol Brozany v Mladá Boleslav II
28′A goal for Mladá Boleslav II on 27′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–20–69
28′We said Mladá Boleslav II at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 0–1 · 11–20–69
28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Sokol Brozany 0–1 Mladá Boleslav II
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Mladá Boleslav II win: 40% at kick-off, 69% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 11–20–69
33′We said Mladá Boleslav II at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Mladá Boleslav II win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
37′A goal for Mladá Boleslav II on 27′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–20–70
37′We said Mladá Boleslav II at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–20–70
38′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 9–20–70
45′HALF-TIME Sokol Brozany 0–1 Mladá Boleslav II
46′F. Lehky scores for Mladá Boleslav II on 28′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–20–72
46′SECOND HALF Sokol Brozany 0–1 Mladá Boleslav II
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Mladá Boleslav II
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Mladá Boleslav II
55′We said Mladá Boleslav II at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
57′Sokol Brozany score on 57′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 25–47–29
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Sokol Brozany 1–1 Mladá Boleslav II
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Mladá Boleslav II win: 40% at kick-off, 29% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Mladá Boleslav II win 29%)
58′We said Mladá Boleslav II at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 24–47–28
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Mladá Boleslav II win: 40% at kick-off, 28% now
60′Mladá Boleslav II find the net on 59′. 1–2. 1–2 · 5–19–76
60′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 5–19–76
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Sokol Brozany 1–2 Mladá Boleslav II
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Mladá Boleslav II win: 40% at kick-off, 76% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Mladá Boleslav II win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
68′We said Mladá Boleslav II at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Mladá Boleslav II win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
70′A goal for Mladá Boleslav II on 69′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–97
70′We said Mladá Boleslav II at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 1–3 · 0–2–97
70′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–2–97
70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Sokol Brozany 1–3 Mladá Boleslav II
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Mladá Boleslav II win: 40% at kick-off, 97% now
83′We said Mladá Boleslav II at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Mladá Boleslav II win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
FTFULL TIME Sokol Brozany 1–3 Mladá Boleslav II
FTSokol Brozany 1–3 Mladá Boleslav II · Mladá Boleslav II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mladá Boleslav II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sokol Brozany 33%, draw 26%, Mladá Boleslav II 40%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Sokol Brozany v Mladá Boleslav IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sokol Brozany win33%

Draw26%

Mladá Boleslav II win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundGroup B · matchday 11

VenueHlavni stadion SK Sokol Brozany

Line-ups

Sokol Brozany

Mladá Boleslav II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sokol Brozany

Mladá Boleslav II

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. liga - CFL B

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. liga - CFL B

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Mladá Boleslav II	10	+15	20
14	Sokol Brozany	10	−6	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sokol Brozany

Formation not confirmed

29 L. Gothard

2 P. Kolar

3 T. Kolsky

4 D. Sustr

5 F. Ulman

7 E. Houessou

11 A. Stauber

13 K. Majid

15 M. Dieng

16 H. Hubl

19 J. Spirek

Coach · –

Substitutes

9 · A. Krahula

12 · V. Monyc

18 · L. Nunez

20 · T. Kotrba

21 · T. Stajnc

23 · F. Rott

1 · M. Maxa

Mladá Boleslav II

Formation not confirmed

99 M. Skrdla

4 G. Abel

7 M. Kuhnel

8 Y. Jaji

11 J. Peterka

13 F. Kolar

16 D. Pech

18 F. Lehky

20 D. Hanzelka

21 K. Doloh

25 P. Dohalsky

Coach · Pavel Malura

Substitutes

9 · M. Kalabus

12 · K. Winter

15 · A. Vancata

17 · J. Knobloch

23 · M. Kodera

59 · M. Obdrzalek

Our number · mladá boleslav ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market48%

Us40%

~~Market~~48%

We make Mladá Boleslav II a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sokol Brozany v Mladá Boleslav II~~1.29 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL B this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 20~~14 v 3

~~The market · Mladá Boleslav II win~~48% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mladá Boleslav II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sokol Brozany win	33%	27%	+6
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Mladá Boleslav II win	40%	48%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	51%	57%	−6
Both teams to score	55%	60%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	76%	79%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	37%	−8
Sokol Brozany or draw	60%	52%	+8
Sokol Brozany clean sheet	24%	–	–
Mladá Boleslav II clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.2 9.1 6.8 3.3 1 8.1 12.3 8.4 4.1 2 5.5 7.6 5.4 2.6 3 2.4 3.3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sokol Brozany down, Mladá Boleslav II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,341 3. liga - CFL B matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - CFL B matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sokol Brozany at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Mladá Boleslav II away: 2.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Sokol Brozany, 1.44 for Mladá Boleslav II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MLA 1–1 SOK · SOK 0–2 MLA · SOK 1–3 MLA · MLA 2–3 SOK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL B this season · since 5 Sept

SOKOL BROZANY

WLDLDL3–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 1–3

MLADÁ BOLESLAV II

LDWWDW2–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jablonec II	10	+15	21
2	Sokol Zápy	10	+12	21
3	Mladá Boleslav II	10	+15	20
4	Benátky nad Jizerou	10	+9	19
5	Varnsdorf	9	+1	15
6	Pardubice II	9	+5	14
7	Čáslav	9	−5	14
8	Baník Souš	10	+6	13
9	Teplice II	10	−2	13
10	Chrudim	11	−5	13
11	Neratovice-Byškovice	10	−7	12
12	Hradec Králové II	10	−2	10
13	Horní Ředice	9	−9	9
14	Sokol Brozany	10	−6	8
15	Velké Hamry	10	−14	7
16	Slovan Liberec II	9	−13	5