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Slovan Liberec II v Chrudim

Slovan Liberec II

1–3Full time

Chrudim

3. liga - CFL B · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 12:18

Slovan Liberec II 1–3 Chrudim SLOVAN LIBEREC II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Slovan Liberec II win~~53%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.858

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.568

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Slovan Liberec II win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Slovan Liberec II 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–20–27
1′KICK-OFF Slovan Liberec II v Chrudim
2′⚽ GOAL · 3' Slovan Liberec II 0–0 Chrudim
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Slovan Liberec II 0–1 Chrudim
11′3′ and it is 0–1: Chrudim have scored. 0–1 · 31–21–48
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Slovan Liberec II win: 53% at kick-off, 31% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Chrudim win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Slovan Liberec II win 31%)
22′We said Slovan Liberec II at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–1 · 27–22–50
22′⚽ GOAL · 24' Slovan Liberec II 0–1 Chrudim
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Slovan Liberec II 0–2 Chrudim
45′HALF-TIME Slovan Liberec II 0–2 Chrudim
45′SECOND HALF Slovan Liberec II 0–2 Chrudim
55′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Slovan Liberec II
59′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Chrudim
67′⚽ GOAL · 69' Slovan Liberec II 0–2 Chrudim
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Slovan Liberec II 0–3 Chrudim · S. Langr
70′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Chrudim
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Slovan Liberec II 0–3 Chrudim
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Slovan Liberec II 1–3 Chrudim · S. Langr
FTFULL TIME Slovan Liberec II 1–3 Chrudim
FTSlovan Liberec II 1–3 Chrudim · Slovan Liberec II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Slovan Liberec II win53%

Draw20%

Chrudim win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 09:15

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Slovan Liberec II

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Musil

7 K. Michal

10 M. Strnad

11 M. Filipek

19 J. Prinda

20 M. Kurc

22 J. Pozler

26 S. Jager

28 A. Dobes

29 V. Sychra

37 M. Kulha

Coach · –

Substitutes

6 · L. Zitnan

16 · V. Kaspar

18 · S. Brtinsky

21 · S. Cistecky

23 · K. Ogboi

25 · K. Dusak

34 · M. Horacek

Chrudim

Formation not confirmed

5 M. Tichy

8 S. Langr

9 T. Tlusty

10 D. Balog

11 M. Zvolanek

12 A. Kavalek

13 L. Hromek

14 V. Reznicek

16 O. Kucera

19 D. Bazout

30 D. Panin

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · S. Poriz

7 · P. Skohoutil

15 · J. Latal

17 · V. Cvancar

18 · S. Bakes

20 · N. Chichak

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Slovan Liberec II

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Musil

7 K. Michal

10 M. Strnad

11 M. Filipek

19 J. Prinda

20 M. Kurc

22 J. Pozler

26 S. Jager

28 A. Dobes

29 V. Sychra

37 M. Kulha

Coach · –

Substitutes

6 · L. Zitnan

16 · V. Kaspar

18 · S. Brtinsky

21 · S. Cistecky

23 · K. Ogboi

25 · K. Dusak

34 · M. Horacek

Chrudim

Formation not confirmed

5 M. Tichy

8 S. Langr

9 T. Tlusty

10 D. Balog

11 M. Zvolanek

12 A. Kavalek

13 L. Hromek

14 V. Reznicek

16 O. Kucera

19 D. Bazout

30 D. Panin

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · S. Poriz

7 · P. Skohoutil

15 · J. Latal

17 · V. Cvancar

18 · S. Bakes

20 · N. Chichak

Our number · slovan liberec ii winPublished 10 Oct 09:05

53% The market37%

Us53%

~~Market~~37%

We make Slovan Liberec II a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · slovan liberec ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Slovan Liberec II win	53%	37%	+16
Draw	20%	24%	−4
Chrudim win	27%	39%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	76%	64%	+11
Both teams to score	73%	67%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	91%	84%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	57%	44%	+13
Slovan Liberec II or draw	73%	61%	+12
Slovan Liberec II clean sheet	20%	–	–
Chrudim clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.1%

0123450 2.2 2.9 2.5 1 4.1 7.3 5.8 3.2 2 5.1 8.1 6.6 3.7 3 4.0 6.4 5.2 2.9 4 2.4 3.8 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Slovan Liberec II down, Chrudim across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,332 3. liga - CFL B matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. liga - CFL B matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Slovan Liberec II at home: 3.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Chrudim away: 1.20 scored, 2.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

2.36 goals for Slovan Liberec II, 1.65 for Chrudim. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL B

SLOVAN LIBEREC II

LDLLLD0–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 1–1

CHRUDIM

LDDLLD1–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sokol Zápy	9	+13	21
2	Jablonec II	9	+13	18
3	Mladá Boleslav II	9	+14	17
4	Benátky nad Jizerou	8	+7	15
5	Pardubice II	8	+8	14
6	Teplice II	9	0	13
7	Baník Souš	8	+7	12
8	Varnsdorf	8	0	12
9	Čáslav	8	−6	11
10	Hradec Králové II	9	−1	10
11	Horní Ředice	7	−6	9
12	Neratovice-Byškovice	9	−10	9
13	Sokol Brozany	9	−4	8
14	Chrudim	9	−8	7
15	Slovan Liberec II	8	−11	5
16	Velké Hamry	9	−16	4