Pardubice II v Velké Hamry prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 12:06

Pardubice II 6–0 Velké Hamry PARDUBICE II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pardubice II win~~65%

~~The market said~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.187

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.136

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pardubice II win at 65%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Pardubice II 65% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–19–17
1′KICK-OFF Pardubice II v Velké Hamry
8′Pardubice II score on 8′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 83–11–6
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Pardubice II 1–0 Velké Hamry
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Pardubice II win: 65% at kick-off, 83% now
8′GOAL DISALLOWED · 8' Pardubice II
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Pardubice II win: 65% at kick-off, 63% now
9′We said Pardubice II at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–11–6
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Pardubice II 1–0 Velké Hamry
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Pardubice II win: 65% at kick-off, 83% now
14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Velké Hamry
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Velké Hamry
25′SUBSTITUTION · 19' Pardubice II · On: J. Svatos · Off: J. Flaska
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 82–12–5
35′Pardubice II find the net on 34′. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
35′We said Pardubice II at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Pardubice II 2–0 Velké Hamry
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Pardubice II win: 65% at kick-off, 95% now
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Velké Hamry
45′HALF-TIME Pardubice II 2–0 Velké Hamry
46′SECOND HALF Pardubice II 2–0 Velké Hamry
54′A goal for Pardubice II on 54′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Pardubice II 3–0 Velké Hamry
55′We said Pardubice II at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Pardubice II · On: M. Beranek · Off: M. Reil
66′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Pardubice II · On: A. Ouattara · Off: J. Svatos
70′Pardubice II score on 70′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Pardubice II 4–0 Velké Hamry
71′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Velké Hamry · On: G. Erewa · Off: T. Bulir
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Velké Hamry · On: O. Zawanowski · Off: P. Balaz
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Velké Hamry · On: S. Munzar · Off: S. Novotny
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Pardubice II · On: P. Topolsky · Off: T. Urban
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Pardubice II · On: M. Fajt · Off: D. Skala
80′Pardubice II find the net on 79′. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
80′5 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Pardubice II 5–0 Velké Hamry
81′A goal for Pardubice II on 81′ — 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Pardubice II 6–0 Velké Hamry
82′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 6–0 · 100–0–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Velké Hamry · On: S. Fofana · Off: M. Kubin
FTFULL TIME Pardubice II 6–0 Velké Hamry
FTPardubice II 6–0 Velké Hamry · Pardubice II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pardubice II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pardubice II 65%, draw 19%, Velké Hamry 17%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Pardubice II v Velké HamryBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Pardubice II win65%

Draw19%

Velké Hamry win17%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 09:15

RoundGroup B · matchday 11

VenueStadion Pod Vinici

Line-ups

Pardubice II

Velké Hamry

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pardubice II

Velké Hamry

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. liga - CFL B

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Pardubice II	9	+5	14
15	Velké Hamry	10	−14	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Pardubice II

Formation not confirmed

3 T. Prazak

9 D. Smekal

10 R. Saarma

11 J. Zima

14 D. Skala

18 J. Flaska

19 M. Reil

21 T. Urban

22 J. Serak

24 J. Tredl

25 M. Traore

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · J. Hudak

7 · P. Topolsky

8 · M. Fajt

12 · M. Beranek

15 · J. Svatos

16 · A. Ouattara

17 · A. Busek

Velké Hamry

Formation not confirmed

5 J. .. Sidlo

6 P. Balaz

18 D. Mecir

22 S. Novotny

46 J. Jindrisek

48 O. Stepanek

77 K. Knejzlik

88 P. Krejcik

93 O. Etemike

96 T. Bulir

97 M. Kubin

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · L. Dedek

4 · W. Masternak

7 · S. Munzar

9 · O. Valenta

10 · S. Fofana

11 · G. Erewa

75 · O. Zawanowski

Our number · pardubice ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

65% The market70%

Us65%

~~Market~~70%

We make Pardubice II a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pardubice II v Velké Hamry~~2.41 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL B this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 7~~7 v 15

~~The market · Pardubice II win~~70% · ours 65%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pardubice II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pardubice II win	65%	70%	−5
Draw	19%	16%	+3
Velké Hamry win	17%	14%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	68%	73%	−5
Both teams to score	61%	62%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	86%	87%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	47%	55%	−8
Pardubice II or draw	83%	86%	−3
Pardubice II clean sheet	33%	–	–
Velké Hamry clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.4 3.2 1 6.9 8.2 4.5 2 8.3 9.2 5.2 2.0 3 6.6 7.3 4.1 4 4.0 4.4 2.5 5 2.0 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Pardubice II down, Velké Hamry across0–5 goals a side shown (95.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,344 3. liga - CFL B matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - CFL B matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.5% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pardubice II at home: 3.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Velké Hamry away: 0.50 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.41 goals for Pardubice II, 1.13 for Velké Hamry. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PAR 4–1 VEL · VEL 4–1 PAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL B this season · since 6 Sept

PARDUBICE II

DDWLWL1–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 0–3

VELKÉ HAMRY

LDLWLW1–3 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 4–2 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mladá Boleslav II	11	+17	23
2	Jablonec II	10	+15	21
3	Sokol Zápy	10	+12	21
4	Benátky nad Jizerou	10	+9	19
5	Baník Souš	11	+7	16
6	Varnsdorf	10	0	15
7	Pardubice II	9	+5	14
8	Čáslav	9	−5	14
9	Teplice II	10	−2	13
10	Chrudim	11	−5	13
11	Neratovice-Byškovice	10	−7	12
12	Hradec Králové II	10	−2	10
13	Horní Ředice	9	−9	9
14	Sokol Brozany	11	−8	8
15	Velké Hamry	10	−14	7
16	Slovan Liberec II	9	−13	5