Mladá Boleslav II v Čáslav prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 12:08

Mladá Boleslav II 4–0 Čáslav MLADÁ BOLESLAV II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mladá Boleslav II win~~56%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.292

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.187

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mladá Boleslav II win at 56%.
1′KICK-OFF Mladá Boleslav II v Čáslav
2′Much as we predicted: Mladá Boleslav II was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–23–22
35′A goal for Mladá Boleslav II on 34′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–15–6
35′We published Mladá Boleslav II at 56%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–15–6
35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Mladá Boleslav II 1–0 Čáslav
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Mladá Boleslav II win: 56% at kick-off, 78% now
36′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 78–15–6
45′HALF-TIME Mladá Boleslav II 1–0 Čáslav
46′SECOND HALF Mladá Boleslav II 1–0 Čáslav
50′We published Mladá Boleslav II at 56%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–5
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Čáslav
55′Mladá Boleslav II score on 55′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Mladá Boleslav II 2–0 Čáslav
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Mladá Boleslav II win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
56′We published Mladá Boleslav II at 56%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
59′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Čáslav · On: J. Slavik · Off: V. Simon
59′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Čáslav · On: M. Smutny · Off: M. Kvacek
76′Mladá Boleslav II find the net on 75′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
76′We published Mladá Boleslav II at 56%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Mladá Boleslav II 3–0 Čáslav
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Mladá Boleslav II · On: K. Winter · Off: J. Jinoch Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Mladá Boleslav II · On: O. Rittenauer · Off: P. Dohalsky
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Mladá Boleslav II · On: J. Peterka · Off: M. Kuhnel
81′A goal for Mladá Boleslav II on 81′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Mladá Boleslav II · On: M. Kodera · Off: J. Jinoch
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Mladá Boleslav II 4–0 Čáslav
82′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
84′J. Peterka scores for Mladá Boleslav II on 80′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Mladá Boleslav II · On: A. Vancata · Off: J. Knobloch
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Mladá Boleslav II
92′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Čáslav · On: S. Chocholaty · Off: S. Machu
FTFULL TIME Mladá Boleslav II 4–0 Čáslav
FTMladá Boleslav II 4–0 Čáslav · Mladá Boleslav II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mladá Boleslav II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mladá Boleslav II 56%, draw 22%, Čáslav 22%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Mladá Boleslav II v ČáslavBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Mladá Boleslav II win56%

Draw22%

Čáslav win22%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 09:15

RoundGroup B · matchday 12

VenueLokotrans Arena

Line-ups

Mladá Boleslav II

Čáslav

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mladá Boleslav II

Čáslav

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. liga - CFL B

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. liga - CFL B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Mladá Boleslav II	11	+17	23
8	Čáslav	10	−6	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Mladá Boleslav II

Formation not confirmed

4 G. Abel

7 M. Kuhnel

8 Y. Jaji

13 F. Kolar

17 J. Knobloch

18 F. Lehky

20 D. Hanzelka

21 K. Doloh

24 J. Jinoch

25 P. Dohalsky

59 M. Obdrzalek

Coach · Pavel Malura

Substitutes

6 · M. Otta

11 · J. Peterka

12 · K. Winter

15 · A. Vancata

19 · O. Rittenauer

23 · M. Kodera

99 · M. Skrdla

Čáslav

Formation not confirmed

5 S. Machu

7 V. Simon

9 M. Kvacek

11 J. Nikodem

14 D. Machacek

17 F. Skokan

18 M. Jarkovsky

20 T. Svoboda

21 M. Spevak

27 F. Vesely

87 R. Zacharias

Coach · –

Substitutes

6 · J. Mahr

10 · S. Chocholaty

13 · P. Batka

15 · M. Smutny

19 · V. Junek

29 · D. Vyhnanek

30 · J. Slavik

Our number · mladá boleslav ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

56% The market65%

Us56%

~~Market~~65%

We make Mladá Boleslav II a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mladá Boleslav II v Čáslav~~1.99 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL B this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 23 v 14~~3 v 8

~~The market · Mladá Boleslav II win~~65% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mladá Boleslav II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mladá Boleslav II win	56%	65%	−9
Draw	22%	20%	+2
Čáslav win	22%	15%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	61%	66%	−5
Both teams to score	59%	59%	0
Over 1.5 goals	82%	84%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	39%	46%	−7
Mladá Boleslav II or draw	78%	85%	−7
Mladá Boleslav II clean sheet	32%	–	–
Čáslav clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.9 4.7 3.0 1 8.2 10.2 5.7 2.2 2 8.4 9.6 5.5 2.2 3 5.6 6.3 3.7 4 2.8 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mladá Boleslav II down, Čáslav across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,349 3. liga - CFL B matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - CFL B matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.8% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Mladá Boleslav II at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Čáslav away: 1.40 scored, 2.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.99 goals for Mladá Boleslav II, 1.16 for Čáslav. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL B this season · since 12 Sept

MLADÁ BOLESLAV II

DWWDWW2–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–1

ČÁSLAV

DWWWWL2–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jablonec II	11	+16	24
2	Sokol Zápy	11	+13	24
3	Mladá Boleslav II	11	+17	23
4	Benátky nad Jizerou	11	+9	20
5	Pardubice II	10	+11	17
6	Baník Souš	11	+7	16
7	Varnsdorf	10	0	15
8	Čáslav	10	−6	14
9	Teplice II	11	−3	13
10	Chrudim	11	−5	13
11	Neratovice-Byškovice	11	−7	13
12	Hradec Králové II	11	−3	10
13	Horní Ředice	9	−9	9
14	Sokol Brozany	11	−8	8
15	Slovan Liberec II	10	−12	8
16	Velké Hamry	11	−20	7