Home › Football › 3. liga - CFL B › Mladá Boleslav II v Baník Souš

Mladá Boleslav II v Baník Souš

Mladá Boleslav II

1–0Full time

Baník Souš

3. liga - CFL B · SAT 10 OCT · Lokotrans Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 12:18

Mladá Boleslav II 1–0 Baník Souš MLADÁ BOLESLAV II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mladá Boleslav II win~~37%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.601

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.549

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mladá Boleslav II win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Mladá Boleslav II was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–26–37
1′KICK-OFF Mladá Boleslav II v Baník Souš
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Mladá Boleslav II 1–0 Baník Souš
11′Mladá Boleslav II ahead on 5′ through M. Kratky. 1–0. 1–0 · 64–21–15
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Mladá Boleslav II win: 37% at kick-off, 64% now
22′We published Mladá Boleslav II at 37%. Our model now makes it 66%. 1–0 · 66–21–13
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Baník Souš
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Mladá Boleslav II
45′HALF-TIME Mladá Boleslav II 1–0 Baník Souš
46′SECOND HALF Mladá Boleslav II 1–0 Baník Souš
73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Mladá Boleslav II · On: O. Rittenauer · Off: P. Dohalsky
73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Mladá Boleslav II · On: M. Cepela · Off: J. Jinoch
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Baník Souš · On: A. Musa · Off: M. Kytka
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Mladá Boleslav II
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' K. Doloh · Mladá Boleslav II
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Baník Souš
FTFULL TIME Mladá Boleslav II 1–0 Baník Souš
FTMladá Boleslav II 1–0 Baník Souš · Mladá Boleslav II win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Mladá Boleslav II win37%

Draw27%

Baník Souš win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 09:15

Venue · Lokotrans Arena

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Mladá Boleslav II

Formation not confirmed

4 G. Abel

7 M. Kuhnel

8 Y. Jaji

13 F. Kolar

15 A. Vancata

17 J. Knobloch

20 D. Hanzelka

21 K. Doloh

24 J. Jinoch

25 P. Dohalsky

59 M. Obdrzalek

Coach · Pavel Malura

Substitutes

6 · M. Otta

10 · M. Cepela

12 · K. Winter

19 · O. Rittenauer

99 · M. Skrdla

Baník Souš

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Vitasek

8 M. Kratky

9 M. Kubes

10 J. Kopriva

13 M. Kytka

14 O. Novicky

16 J. Tomsik

17 M. Rjaska

21 P. Horvath

22 A. Radba

24 M. Leibl

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · A. Musa

4 · P. Zaruba

5 · A. Standera

7 · O. Podzimek

15 · P. Vlcek

19 · J. Cihak

30 · V. Smrkovsky

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Mladá Boleslav II

Formation not confirmed

4 G. Abel

7 M. Kuhnel

8 Y. Jaji

13 F. Kolar

15 A. Vancata

17 J. Knobloch

20 D. Hanzelka

21 K. Doloh

24 J. Jinoch

25 P. Dohalsky

59 M. Obdrzalek

Coach · Pavel Malura

Substitutes

6 · M. Otta

10 · M. Cepela

12 · K. Winter

19 · O. Rittenauer

99 · M. Skrdla

Baník Souš

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Vitasek

8 M. Kratky

9 M. Kubes

10 J. Kopriva

13 M. Kytka

14 O. Novicky

16 J. Tomsik

17 M. Rjaska

21 P. Horvath

22 A. Radba

24 M. Leibl

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · A. Musa

4 · P. Zaruba

5 · A. Standera

7 · O. Podzimek

15 · P. Vlcek

19 · J. Cihak

30 · V. Smrkovsky

Our number · mladá boleslav ii winPublished 10 Oct 09:05

37% The market40%

Us37%

~~Market~~40%

We make Mladá Boleslav II a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · mladá boleslav ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mladá Boleslav II win	37%	40%	−3
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Baník Souš win	36%	34%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	50%	57%	−7
Both teams to score	54%	61%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	75%	78%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	28%	36%	−8
Mladá Boleslav II or draw	64%	66%	−2
Mladá Boleslav II clean sheet	27%	–	–
Baník Souš clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.6 8.8 6.1 2.8 1 8.9 12.5 8.0 3.6 2 6.2 8.0 5.3 2.4 3 2.8 3.7 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mladá Boleslav II down, Baník Souš across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,332 3. liga - CFL B matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. liga - CFL B matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.62 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mladá Boleslav II at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Baník Souš away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Mladá Boleslav II, 1.33 for Baník Souš. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BAN 1–1 MLA · MLA 3–1 BAN · BAN 2–2 MLA · MLA 1–0 BAN

Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL B

MLADÁ BOLESLAV II

WLDWWD3–0 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

BANÍK SOUŠ

WLWWLL2–1 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sokol Zápy	9	+13	21
2	Jablonec II	9	+13	18
3	Mladá Boleslav II	9	+14	17
4	Benátky nad Jizerou	8	+7	15
5	Pardubice II	8	+8	14
6	Teplice II	9	0	13
7	Baník Souš	8	+7	12
8	Varnsdorf	8	0	12
9	Čáslav	8	−6	11
10	Hradec Králové II	9	−1	10
11	Horní Ředice	7	−6	9
12	Neratovice-Byškovice	9	−10	9
13	Sokol Brozany	9	−4	8
14	Chrudim	9	−8	7
15	Slovan Liberec II	8	−11	5
16	Velké Hamry	9	−16	4