Jablonec II v Sokol Brozany prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 12:11

Jablonec II 3–1 Sokol Brozany JABLONEC II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Jablonec II win~~51%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.355

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.247

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Jablonec II win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Jablonec II was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–24
6′Much as we predicted: Jablonec II was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–24
21′N. Innocenti scores for Jablonec II on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Jablonec II win: 51% at kick-off, 51% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Jablonec II win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Jablonec II win: 51% at kick-off, 51% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Jablonec II win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Jablonec II win: 51% at kick-off, 51% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Jablonec II win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Jablonec II win: 51% at kick-off, 51% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Jablonec II win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Jablonec II win: 51% at kick-off, 51% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Jablonec II win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Jablonec II win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Jablonec II win: 51% at kick-off, 51% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Jablonec II win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Jablonec II win: 51% at kick-off, 51% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Jablonec II win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Jablonec II
45′HALF-TIME Jablonec II 1–0 Sokol Brozany
45′SECOND HALF Jablonec II 1–0 Sokol Brozany
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sokol Brozany · On: V. Monyc · Off: V. Vokoun Corrected
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Sokol Brozany
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Jablonec II 2–0 Sokol Brozany · N. Innocenti
55′⚽ GOAL · 56' Jablonec II 2–0 Sokol Brozany
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Jablonec II 2–1 Sokol Brozany · N. Innocenti
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Jablonec II 2–1 Sokol Brozany
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Jablonec II 3–1 Sokol Brozany · H. Ahl
62′⚽ GOAL · 63' Jablonec II 3–1 Sokol Brozany
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sokol Brozany · On: H. Hubl · Off: A. Stauber
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sokol Brozany · On: P. Kolar · Off: F. Rott
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Jablonec II · On: S. Ptacek · Off: D. Pandula
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Jablonec II · On: F. Hrna · Off: D. Nykrin
76′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Jablonec II
80′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Sokol Brozany
83′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Jablonec II
90′🟨 YELLOW · 84' F. Hrna · Jablonec II
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Sokol Brozany · On: V. Monyc · Off: M. Dieng
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Jablonec II · On: T. Ogbadibo · Off: H. Ahl
FTFULL TIME Jablonec II 3–1 Sokol Brozany
FTJablonec II 3–1 Sokol Brozany · Jablonec II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Jablonec II win51%

Draw24%

Sokol Brozany win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 09:15

VenueFotbalovy stadion Brizky

Line-ups

Jablonec II

Sokol Brozany

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Jablonec II

Sokol Brozany

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Jablonec II	9	+13	18
14	Sokol Brozany	9	−4	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Jablonec II

Formation not confirmed

1 V. Reiner

5 H. Ahl

7 A. Taveira

8 R. Horak

11 D. Breda

13 D. Pandula

16 F. Hanc

17 E. Maly

21 D. Nykrin

22 N. Innocenti

24 A. Kubat

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · D. Melka

4 · L. Vrabec

14 · S. Ptacek

18 · A. Hubka

19 · F. Hrna

23 · T. Ogbadibo

35 · D. Liebezeit

Sokol Brozany

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Gothard

3 T. Kolsky

4 D. Sustr

5 F. Ulman

7 E. Houessou

11 A. Stauber

13 K. Majid

15 M. Dieng

19 J. Spirek

22 V. Vokoun

23 F. Rott

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · P. Kolar

9 · A. Krahula

12 · V. Monyc

16 · H. Hubl

18 · L. Nunez

21 · T. Stajnc

29 · M. Maxa

Our number · jablonec ii winPublished 11 Oct 09:04

51% The market59%

Us51%

~~Market~~59%

We make Jablonec II a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · jablonec ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jablonec II win	51%	59%	−8
Draw	24%	22%	+3
Sokol Brozany win	25%	19%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	55%	63%	−8
Both teams to score	55%	59%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	78%	81%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	33%	42%	−9
Jablonec II or draw	75%	81%	−6
Jablonec II clean sheet	33%	–	–
Sokol Brozany clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.2 6.1 3.7 1 9.5 11.2 6.2 2.4 2 8.5 9.4 5.3 2.0 3 5.0 5.5 3.1 4 2.3 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jablonec II down, Sokol Brozany across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,337 3. liga - CFL B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. liga - CFL B matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.70 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jablonec II at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sokol Brozany away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Jablonec II, 1.13 for Sokol Brozany. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SOK 1–0 JAB · JAB 1–7 SOK · JAB 2–2 SOK · SOK 2–2 JAB

Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL B

JABLONEC II

DWDWLW1–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 3–1

SOKOL BROZANY

DWLDLD1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–4 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sokol Zápy	9	+13	21
2	Mladá Boleslav II	10	+15	20
3	Jablonec II	9	+13	18
4	Benátky nad Jizerou	9	+9	18
5	Pardubice II	9	+5	14
6	Teplice II	10	−2	13
7	Baník Souš	9	+6	12
8	Varnsdorf	8	0	12
9	Neratovice-Byškovice	10	−7	12
10	Čáslav	8	−6	11
11	Hradec Králové II	9	−1	10
12	Chrudim	10	−6	10
13	Horní Ředice	8	−8	9
14	Sokol Brozany	9	−4	8
15	Velké Hamry	10	−14	7
16	Slovan Liberec II	9	−13	5