Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › 3. liga - CFL B › Čáslav v Jablonec II

Back
Czech Republic flag

Čáslav v Jablonec II

Čáslav
2–3Full time
Jablonec II

3. liga - CFL B · SUN 18 OCT · Stadion Pod Hradkem

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17
Čáslav 2–3 Jablonec II ČÁSLAV WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Čáslav win41%
The market said30%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.646
The market’s Brier score0.459

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Čáslav win at 41%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Čáslav was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–24–35
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Čáslav v Jablonec II
  4. 3′Jablonec II score on 3′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 20–20–60
  5. 3′We said Čáslav at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–20–60
  6. 3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Čáslav 0–1 Jablonec II
  7. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Čáslav win: 41% at kick-off, 20% now
  8. 3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Jablonec II win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Čáslav win 20%)
  9. 9′We said Čáslav at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–20–60
  10. 19′Jablonec II find the net on 19′. 0–2. 0–2 · 6–11–83
  11. 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Čáslav 0–2 Jablonec II
  12. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Čáslav win: 41% at kick-off, 6% now
  13. 20′We said Čáslav at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 0–2 · 6–11–83
  14. 21′GOAL DISALLOWED · 21' Jablonec II
  15. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Čáslav win: 41% at kick-off, 17% now
  16. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 15–22–63
  17. 33′Jablonec II find the net on 32′. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–10–86
  18. 33′We said Čáslav at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–86
  19. 33′SUBSTITUTION · 24' Jablonec II · On: D. Melka · Off: N. Innocenti
  20. 33′⚽ GOAL · 32' Čáslav 0–2 Jablonec II
  21. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Čáslav win: 41% at kick-off, 4% now
  22. 34′A goal for Čáslav on 34′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 14–22–64
  23. 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Čáslav 1–2 Jablonec II
  24. 35′We said Čáslav at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–22–64
  25. 35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Jablonec II
  26. 45′HALF-TIME Čáslav 1–2 Jablonec II
  27. 46′SECOND HALF Čáslav 1–2 Jablonec II
  28. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Čáslav · On: F. Skokan · Off: P. Fuhrer
  29. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Čáslav · On: J. Nikodem · Off: M. Smutny
  30. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Čáslav · On: M. Kvacek · Off: J. Slavik
  31. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Jablonec II
  32. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Čáslav · On: S. Machu · Off: S. Chocholaty
  33. 70′Jablonec II score on 70′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–3–96
  34. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Čáslav 1–3 Jablonec II
  35. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Čáslav win: 41% at kick-off, under 1% now
  36. 71′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–3–96
  37. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Čáslav
  38. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Jablonec II
  39. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Jablonec II
  40. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Jablonec II · On: F. Hanc · Off: D. Pandula
  41. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Čáslav · On: M. Jarkovsky · Off: V. Simon
  42. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Jablonec II
  43. 89′Čáslav find the net on 89′. 2–3. 2–3 · 0–6–94
  44. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Čáslav 2–3 Jablonec II
  45. 90′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–5–95
  46. FTFULL TIME Čáslav 2–3 Jablonec II
  47. FTČáslav 2–3 Jablonec II · Čáslav win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Čáslav are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Čáslav 41%, draw 24%, Jablonec II 35%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Čáslav v Jablonec IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Čáslav win41%
Draw24%
Jablonec II win35%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundGroup B · matchday 11

VenueStadion Pod Hradkem

Line-ups

Čáslav

Jablonec II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Čáslav

Jablonec II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. liga - CFL B

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. liga - CFL B

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Jablonec II10+1521
8Čáslav9−514

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Čáslav

Formation not confirmed

3 P. Fuhrer

7 V. Simon

10 S. Chocholaty

13 P. Batka

14 D. Machacek

15 M. Smutny

20 T. Svoboda

21 M. Spevak

27 F. Vesely

29 D. Vyhnanek

30 J. Slavik

Coach · –

Substitutes

5 · S. Machu

9 · M. Kvacek

11 · J. Nikodem

17 · F. Skokan

18 · M. Jarkovsky

87 · R. Zacharias

6 · J. Mahr

Jablonec II

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Mihelak

5 S. Tubic

7 A. Taveira

19 A. Maly

11 D. Breda

13 D. Pandula

17 E. Maly

20 F. Vecheta

21 D. Nykrin

22 N. Innocenti

24 A. Kubat

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · D. Melka

4 · L. Vrabec

14 · S. Ptacek

16 · F. Hanc

18 · A. Hubka

23 · T. Ogbadibo

35 · V. Reiner

Our number · čáslav winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
41% The market30%
Us41%
Market30%

We make Čáslav a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Čáslav v Jablonec II1.62 – 1.49
Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL B this season · since 6 SeptW4 D1 L1 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 14 v 218 v 3
The market · Čáslav win30% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40%45% 12 OCT 04:0118 OCT 13:43
Our probability · Čáslav win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Čáslav win41%30%+11
Draw24%26%−2
Jablonec II win35%45%−10
Over 2.5 goals60%62%−2
Both teams to score62%64%−2
Over 1.5 goals81%82%−1
Over 3.5 goals38%42%−4
Čáslav or draw65%55%+10
Čáslav clean sheet23%––
Jablonec II clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%
0123450 5.1 6.5 5.0 2.5 1 7.0 11.0 7.8 3.9 2 5.9 8.5 6.3 3.1 3 3.2 4.6 3.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Čáslav down, Jablonec II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL B this season · since 6 Sept

ČÁSLAV

LDWWWW0–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–2

JABLONEC II

WDWLWW2–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Sokol Zápy11+1324
2Mladá Boleslav II11+1723
3Jablonec II10+1521
4Benátky nad Jizerou10+919
5Pardubice II10+1117
6Baník Souš11+716
7Varnsdorf10015
8Čáslav9−514
9Teplice II11−313
10Chrudim11−513
11Neratovice-Byškovice10−712
12Hradec Králové II11−310
13Horní Ředice9−99
14Sokol Brozany11−88
15Slovan Liberec II10−128
16Velké Hamry11−207

Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.