Baník Souš v Varnsdorf prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Baník Souš 1–0 Varnsdorf BANÍK SOUŠ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Baník Souš win~~56%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.285

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.410

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Baník Souš win at 56%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Baník Souš 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–23–21
1′KICK-OFF Baník Souš v Varnsdorf
30′Baník Souš score on 30′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 80–15–6
30′We said Baník Souš at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–6
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 80–15–6
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Baník Souš 1–0 Varnsdorf
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Baník Souš win: 56% at kick-off, 80% now
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Varnsdorf
45′HALF-TIME Baník Souš 1–0 Varnsdorf
46′SECOND HALF Baník Souš 1–0 Varnsdorf
49′30′: J. Tomsik on the scoresheet for Baník Souš, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 81–15–4
50′We said Baník Souš at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–15–4
67′We said Baník Souš at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Baník Souš win: 56% at kick-off, 86% now
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Varnsdorf
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Baník Souš
78′We said Baník Souš at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Baník Souš
85′We said Baník Souš at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Baník Souš win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Baník Souš 1–0 Varnsdorf
FTBaník Souš 1–0 Varnsdorf · Baník Souš win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Baník Souš are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Baník Souš 56%, draw 23%, Varnsdorf 20%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Baník Souš v VarnsdorfBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Baník Souš win56%

Draw23%

Varnsdorf win20%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup B · matchday 11

VenueStadion Josefa Masopusta

Line-ups

Baník Souš

Varnsdorf

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Baník Souš

Varnsdorf

3Days since last match6

Last match: 14 Oct · 3. liga - CFL B

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. liga - CFL B

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Varnsdorf	9	+1	15
8	Baník Souš	10	+6	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Baník Souš

Formation not confirmed

30 V. Smrkovsky

7 O. Podzimek

13 M. Kytka

10 J. Kopriva

14 O. Novicky

16 J. Tomsik

17 M. Rjaska

19 J. Cihak

21 P. Horvath

22 A. Radba

24 M. Leibl

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · D. Vitasek

3 · A. Musa

8 · M. Kratky

9 · M. Kubes

12 · R. Zorna

15 · P. Vlcek

23 · M. Hadinec

Varnsdorf

Formation not confirmed

1 V. Roze

2 J. Sokol

3 J. Hora

4 I. Tymoshenko

6 L. Jandac

12 J. Emmer

13 J. Hudak

15 S. Boryshpolets

16 T. Ahile

17 N. Gavrylyuk

20 A. Kovbasa

Coach · Pavlo Rudnytskyy

Substitutes

5 · Y. Pinchuk

9 · D. Berezka

11 · O. Sirenko

18 · D. Grafek

22 · N. Pechenyi

24 · M. Lopez

33 · D. Shnurko

Our number · baník souš winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:43 · locked at kick-off

56% The market48%

Us56%

~~Market~~48%

We make Baník Souš a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Baník Souš v Varnsdorf~~1.88 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL B this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 15~~8 v 5

~~The market · Baník Souš win~~48% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Baník Souš win The market, margin stripped

Published at 57%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Baník Souš win	56%	48%	+8
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Varnsdorf win	20%	28%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	55%	58%	−3
Both teams to score	54%	60%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	34%	37%	−3
Baník Souš or draw	80%	72%	+8
Baník Souš clean sheet	36%	–	–
Varnsdorf clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 6.1 5.4 3.0 1 9.9 10.7 5.4 2 9.5 9.6 5.0 3 6.0 6.0 3.1 4 2.9 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Baník Souš down, Varnsdorf across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,341 3. liga - CFL B matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - CFL B matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Baník Souš at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Varnsdorf away: 2.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for Baník Souš, 1.04 for Varnsdorf. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BAN 4–0 VAR · VAR 0–3 BAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL B this season · since 6 Sept

BANÍK SOUŠ

WWLLLD4–0 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–1

VARNSDORF

WDLDDW3–1 · 4–4 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jablonec II	10	+15	21
2	Sokol Zápy	10	+12	21
3	Mladá Boleslav II	10	+15	20
4	Benátky nad Jizerou	10	+9	19
5	Varnsdorf	9	+1	15
6	Pardubice II	9	+5	14
7	Čáslav	9	−5	14
8	Baník Souš	10	+6	13
9	Teplice II	10	−2	13
10	Chrudim	11	−5	13
11	Neratovice-Byškovice	10	−7	12
12	Hradec Králové II	10	−2	10
13	Horní Ředice	9	−9	9
14	Sokol Brozany	10	−6	8
15	Velké Hamry	10	−14	7
16	Slovan Liberec II	9	−13	5