Viktoria Plzeň II v Aritma Praha prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 12:06

Viktoria Plzeň II 3–0 Aritma Praha VIKTORIA PLZEŇ II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Viktoria Plzeň II win~~65%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.179

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.146

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Viktoria Plzeň II win at 65%.
1′Much as we predicted: Viktoria Plzeň II was 65% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–19–16
1′KICK-OFF Viktoria Plzeň II v Aritma Praha
8′A goal for Viktoria Plzeň II on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–10–6
8′We published Viktoria Plzeň II at 65%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–10–6
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Viktoria Plzeň II 1–0 Aritma Praha
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Viktoria Plzeň II win: 65% at kick-off, 83% now
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Aritma Praha
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 1–0 · 83–12–5
44′Viktoria Plzeň II score on 43′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
44′We published Viktoria Plzeň II at 65%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Viktoria Plzeň II 2–0 Aritma Praha
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Viktoria Plzeň II win: 65% at kick-off, 96% now
45′44′: J. Kopic on the scoresheet for Viktoria Plzeň II, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
45′HALF-TIME Viktoria Plzeň II 2–0 Aritma Praha
46′SECOND HALF Viktoria Plzeň II 2–0 Aritma Praha
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Aritma Praha · On: N. Wacker · Off: D. Hodik
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Aritma Praha · On: S. Dostal · Off: V. Severa
54′Viktoria Plzeň II find the net on 53′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–0–0
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Viktoria Plzeň II 3–0 Aritma Praha
56′We published Viktoria Plzeň II at 65%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Aritma Praha
57′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Aritma Praha · On: C. Maione · Off: T. Solc
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Viktoria Plzeň II
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Aritma Praha
79′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Viktoria Plzeň II · On: J. Paluska · Off: A. Sneberger
79′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Viktoria Plzeň II · On: M. Borolic · Off: J. Abrham
79′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Viktoria Plzeň II · On: M. Kubrycht · Off: P. Adu
79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Aritma Praha · On: V. Patka · Off: E. Biegon
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Viktoria Plzeň II · On: O. Ruzicka · Off: P. Hasek
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Aritma Praha · On: V. Janovsky · Off: M. Brany
FTFULL TIME Viktoria Plzeň II 3–0 Aritma Praha
FTViktoria Plzeň II 3–0 Aritma Praha · Viktoria Plzeň II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Viktoria Plzeň II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Viktoria Plzeň II 65%, draw 18%, Aritma Praha 16%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Viktoria Plzeň II v Aritma PrahaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Viktoria Plzeň II win65%

Draw18%

Aritma Praha win16%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 09:30

RoundGroup A · matchday 11

VenueStadion Lucni

Line-ups

Viktoria Plzeň II

Aritma Praha

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Viktoria Plzeň II

Aritma Praha

9Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · 3. liga - CFL A

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. liga - CFL A

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Viktoria Plzeň II	9	+5	17
13	Aritma Praha	10	−14	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Viktoria Plzeň II

Formation not confirmed

1 V. Baier

6 D. Toman

7 F. Visna

8 J. Abrham

9 P. Adu

10 J. Kopic

11 P. Hasek

12 A. Sneberger

17 L. Linhart

19 B. Vacek

21 Z. Paidar

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · J. Paluska

3 · R. Buchner

5 · M. Borolic

14 · O. Ruzicka

18 · M. Kubrycht

20 · A. Novak

32 · M. Hacaperka

Aritma Praha

Formation not confirmed

2 M. Bedrna

5 M. Brany

6 D. Klusak

7 T. Solc

8 A. Kokes

9 L. Hrabak

12 J. Mares

14 E. Biegon

15 V. Severa

16 D. Hodik

30 F. Vacha

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · V. Patka

4 · V. Janovsky

10 · N. Wacker

11 · C. Maione

13 · T. Ielitro

17 · S. Dostal

31 · M. Marandici

Our number · viktoria plzeň ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 03:59 · locked at kick-off

65% The market69%

Us65%

~~Market~~69%

We make Viktoria Plzeň II a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Viktoria Plzeň II v Aritma Praha~~2.51 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL A this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 8~~5 v 13

~~The market · Viktoria Plzeň II win~~69% · ours 65%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Viktoria Plzeň II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 66%, 65% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Viktoria Plzeň II win	65%	69%	−4
Draw	18%	18%	0
Aritma Praha win	16%	13%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	71%	66%	+5
Both teams to score	63%	56%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	88%	84%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	50%	45%	+5
Viktoria Plzeň II or draw	84%	87%	−3
Viktoria Plzeň II clean sheet	31%	–	–
Aritma Praha clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.1 2.7 1 6.0 7.8 4.4 2 7.8 9.0 5.3 2.1 3 6.5 7.5 4.4 4 4.1 4.7 2.8 5 2.1 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Viktoria Plzeň II down, Aritma Praha across0–5 goals a side shown (95.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,298 3. liga - CFL A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - CFL A matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.1% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Viktoria Plzeň II at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Aritma Praha away: 0.83 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.51 goals for Viktoria Plzeň II, 1.18 for Aritma Praha. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VIK 2–2 ARI · ARI 3–4 VIK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL A this season · since 30 Aug

VIKTORIA PLZEŇ II

LWWLWD2–4 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 2–2

ARITMA PRAHA

LLLWDD0–4 · 1–3 · 0–7 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	České Budějovice	11	+21	25
2	Králův Dvůr	10	+13	25
3	Jiskra Domažlice	10	+10	21
4	Motorlet Praha	11	+8	20
5	Viktoria Plzeň II	9	+5	17
6	Sparta Praha II	9	+11	16
7	Loko Vltavín	11	−3	15
8	Slavia III	11	+2	14
9	Písek	10	−3	11
10	Admira Praha	10	−4	11
11	Příbram II	10	−3	10
12	Bohemians 1905 II	10	−9	10
13	Aritma Praha	10	−14	8
14	Dukla Praha II	10	−7	7
15	Benešov	10	−9	7
16	Povltava FA	10	−18	2