Sparta Praha II v Dukla Praha II prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 12:11

Sparta Praha II 2–1 Dukla Praha II SPARTA PRAHA II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sparta Praha II win~~58%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.266

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.100

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sparta Praha II win at 58%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sparta Praha II was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–21–20
1′KICK-OFF Sparta Praha II v Dukla Praha II
3′Much as we predicted: Sparta Praha II was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–21–21
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Sparta Praha II 1–0 Dukla Praha II
45′HALF-TIME Sparta Praha II 1–0 Dukla Praha II
46′SECOND HALF Sparta Praha II 1–0 Dukla Praha II
46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Sparta Praha II
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Sparta Praha II 1–1 Dukla Praha II
48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Sparta Praha II 1–1 Dukla Praha II · V. Babka
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Sparta Praha II 2–1 Dukla Praha II
74′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Sparta Praha II · On: C. Bolorbold · Off: V. Kotisek
74′⚽ GOAL · 71' Sparta Praha II 2–1 Dukla Praha II
75′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Dukla Praha II · On: M. Kroupa · Off: J. Gomez
75′⚽ GOAL · 71' Sparta Praha II 2–1 Dukla Praha II
FTFULL TIME Sparta Praha II 2–1 Dukla Praha II
FTSparta Praha II 2–1 Dukla Praha II · Sparta Praha II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sparta Praha II win58%

Draw22%

Dukla Praha II win20%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 09:15

VenueTCM Strahov

Line-ups

Sparta Praha II

Dukla Praha II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sparta Praha II

Dukla Praha II

22Days since last match7

0Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Sparta Praha II	7	+10	12
14	Dukla Praha II	9	−6	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sparta Praha II

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Franc

4 J. Martinec

7 A. Vitarigov

8 J. Feit

12 S. Vodolan

15 O. Pavlik

16 V. Kotisek

20 L. Azaka

25 V. Novak

27 F. Panak

29 D. Kastanek

Coach · Lubos Loucka

Substitutes

2 · M. Kotisek

9 · I. Negouai

14 · S. Tesar

17 · S. Pavlo

18 · M. Divis

22 · P. Vilimek

23 · C. Bolorbold

Dukla Praha II

Formation not confirmed

2 M. Folprecht

4 F. Skalnik

5 J. Regal

7 F. Breburda

9 L. Kostka

10 V. Babka

11 M. Bezstarosti

13 P. Gaszczyk

18 J. Gomez

21 M. Pokorny

31 A. Jagrik

Coach · –

Substitutes

6 · S. Faye

8 · D. Ungerman

12 · P. Bednar

15 · M. Kroupa

16 · L. Jelinek

20 · M. Koci

44 · J. Vesely

Our number · sparta praha ii winPublished 11 Oct 09:04

58% The market74%

Us58%

~~Market~~74%

We make Sparta Praha II a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sparta praha ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sparta Praha II win	58%	74%	−16
Draw	22%	16%	+6
Dukla Praha II win	20%	10%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	62%	69%	−7
Both teams to score	60%	55%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	83%	86%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	40%	50%	−9
Sparta Praha II or draw	80%	90%	−11
Sparta Praha II clean sheet	32%	–	–
Dukla Praha II clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.7 4.2 2.7 1 7.9 9.9 5.4 2.1 2 8.5 9.5 5.5 2.1 3 5.9 6.6 3.8 4 3.1 3.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sparta Praha II down, Dukla Praha II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,294 3. liga - CFL A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. liga - CFL A matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.8% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Sparta Praha II at home: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Dukla Praha II away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.08 goals for Sparta Praha II, 1.15 for Dukla Praha II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL A

SPARTA PRAHA II

LWDDWW0–1 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 4–0

DUKLA PRAHA II

DLDDDL2–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	České Budějovice	10	+20	22
2	Králův Dvůr	9	+12	22
3	Jiskra Domažlice	10	+10	21
4	Motorlet Praha	10	+8	19
5	Viktoria Plzeň II	9	+5	17
6	Loko Vltavín	10	−2	15
7	Slavia III	10	+3	14
8	Sparta Praha II	7	+10	12
9	Písek	10	−3	11
10	Admira Praha	10	−4	11
11	Příbram II	10	−3	10
12	Bohemians 1905 II	10	−9	10
13	Aritma Praha	10	−14	8
14	Dukla Praha II	9	−6	7
15	Benešov	10	−9	7
16	Povltava FA	10	−18	2