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Loko Vltavín v Slavia III

Loko Vltavín

2–1Full time

Slavia III

3. liga - CFL A · SAT 10 OCT · Stadion U Pruhonu

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 12:18

Loko Vltavín 2–1 Slavia III SLAVIA III WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Slavia III win~~38%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.639

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.572

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Slavia III win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Slavia III 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 35–26–38
1′KICK-OFF Loko Vltavín v Slavia III
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Loko Vltavín 0–1 Slavia III
45′HALF-TIME Loko Vltavín 0–1 Slavia III
46′SECOND HALF Loko Vltavín 0–1 Slavia III
46′SUBSTITUTION · 34' Slavia III · On: J. Kratochvil · Off: I. El Nagaawy
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Slavia III · On: A. Ilincic · Off: O. Masek
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Loko Vltavín 1–1 Slavia III
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Loko Vltavín 2–1 Slavia III
69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Loko Vltavín 2–1 Slavia III
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Slavia III
FTFULL TIME Loko Vltavín 2–1 Slavia III
FTLoko Vltavín 2–1 Slavia III · Slavia III win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Loko Vltavín win35%

Draw27%

Slavia III win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 09:15

Venue · Stadion U Pruhonu

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Loko Vltavín

Formation not confirmed

30 D. Kerl

23 P. Tvaroh

4 A. T. Sivok

2 B. Rudavskyi

5 V. Plachy

20 N. Demmer

19 J. Jakab

8 V. Holinka

11 M. Lehocky

16 F. Kaczmarek

12 D. Lasek

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · P. Storc

7 · J. Havrlik

6 · T. Vancura

21 · M. Candela

18 · A. Gruntorad

14 · D. Bohac

17 · T. Vankat

Slavia III

Formation not confirmed

1 O. Suchy

18 I. El Nagaawy

6 F. Kocvara

24 D. Broukal

4 S. Beran

15 V. Skokan

12 J. Drasnar

14 J. Kopacek

16 O. Masek

9 D. Kohout

19 A. Prochazka

Coach · –

Substitutes

29 · J. Lazek

11 · A. Ilincic

10 · J. Smiga

21 · A. Pawlik

13 · J. Kratochvil

20 · J. Fuksa

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Loko Vltavín

Formation not confirmed

30 D. Kerl

23 P. Tvaroh

4 A. T. Sivok

2 B. Rudavskyi

5 V. Plachy

20 N. Demmer

19 J. Jakab

8 V. Holinka

11 M. Lehocky

16 F. Kaczmarek

12 D. Lasek

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · P. Storc

7 · J. Havrlik

6 · T. Vancura

21 · M. Candela

18 · A. Gruntorad

14 · D. Bohac

17 · T. Vankat

Slavia III

Formation not confirmed

1 O. Suchy

18 I. El Nagaawy

6 F. Kocvara

24 D. Broukal

4 S. Beran

15 V. Skokan

12 J. Drasnar

14 J. Kopacek

16 O. Masek

9 D. Kohout

19 A. Prochazka

Coach · –

Substitutes

29 · J. Lazek

11 · A. Ilincic

10 · J. Smiga

21 · A. Pawlik

13 · J. Kratochvil

20 · J. Fuksa

Our number · slavia iii winPublished 10 Oct 09:05

38% The market37%

Us38%

~~Market~~37%

We make Slavia III a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · slavia iii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Loko Vltavín win	35%	39%	−4
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Slavia III win	38%	37%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	50%	63%	−13
Both teams to score	54%	65%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	75%	83%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	28%	42%	−14
Loko Vltavín or draw	62%	63%	−1
Loko Vltavín clean sheet	26%	–	–
Slavia III clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.8 8.9 6.5 3.0 1 8.5 12.7 8.2 3.8 2 5.9 7.9 5.3 2.5 3 2.6 3.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Loko Vltavín down, Slavia III across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,288 3. liga - CFL A matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. liga - CFL A matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.2% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Loko Vltavín at home: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Slavia III away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Loko Vltavín, 1.37 for Slavia III. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SLA 1–2 LOK · LOK 2–1 SLA

Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL A

LOKO VLTAVÍN

WDWLLL2–0 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 0–3

SLAVIA III

LDWLWW1–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Jiskra Domažlice	9	+10	20
2	České Budějovice	9	+18	19
3	Motorlet Praha	9	+11	19
4	Králův Dvůr	8	+9	19
5	Viktoria Plzeň II	9	+5	17
6	Slavia III	9	+4	14
7	Sparta Praha II	7	+10	12
8	Loko Vltavín	9	−3	12
9	Písek	10	−3	11
10	Příbram II	9	−3	9
11	Bohemians 1905 II	9	−9	9
12	Admira Praha	9	−7	8
13	Benešov	9	−6	7
14	Dukla Praha II	9	−6	7
15	Aritma Praha	9	−14	7
16	Povltava FA	9	−16	2