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Loko Vltavín v Admira Praha

Loko Vltavín
2–1Full time
Admira Praha

3. liga - CFL A · SAT 24 OCT · Stadion U Pruhonu

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 12:08
Loko Vltavín 2–1 Admira Praha LOKO VLTAVÍN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Loko Vltavín win43%
The market said38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.487
The market’s Brier score0.577

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Loko Vltavín win at 43%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Loko Vltavín 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–26–31
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Loko Vltavín v Admira Praha
  4. 42′Loko Vltavín score on 42′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 73–19–8
  5. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Loko Vltavín 1–0 Admira Praha
  6. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Loko Vltavín win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
  7. 43′We said Loko Vltavín at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–19–8
  8. 44′Admira Praha find the net on 43′. 1–1. 1–1 · 35–38–27
  9. 44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Loko Vltavín 1–1 Admira Praha
  10. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Loko Vltavín win: 43% at kick-off, 35% now
  11. 44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Admira Praha
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Loko Vltavín 1–1 Admira Praha
  13. 46′SECOND HALF Loko Vltavín 1–1 Admira Praha
  14. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Loko Vltavín win 73%)
  15. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Loko Vltavín win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
  16. 52′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–1 · 32–42–25
  17. 55′We said Loko Vltavín at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 31–44–24
  18. 59′We said Loko Vltavín at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–48–23
  19. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Admira Praha
  20. 64′PENALTY MISSED · 63' Loko Vltavín
  21. 68′We said Loko Vltavín at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–57–19
  22. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Loko Vltavín win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
  23. 75′We said Loko Vltavín at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–66–15
  24. 75′A goal for Loko Vltavín on 75′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 85–14–2
  25. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Admira Praha · On: N. Dobias · Off: M. Cacha
  26. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Loko Vltavín 2–1 Admira Praha
  27. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Loko Vltavín win: 43% at kick-off, 85% now
  28. 75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Loko Vltavín win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 66%)
  29. 76′We said Loko Vltavín at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 2–1 · 86–13–1
  30. 77′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 86–12–1
  31. 81′We said Loko Vltavín at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
  32. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Admira Praha
  33. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Loko Vltavín win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
  34. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Admira Praha · On: A. Shatkovskyi · Off: D. Ademuwagun
  35. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Admira Praha · On: V. Zaruba · Off: V. Burysek
  36. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Loko Vltavín · On: V. Holinka · Off: F. Kaczmarek
  37. 88′We said Loko Vltavín at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  38. FTFULL TIME Loko Vltavín 2–1 Admira Praha
  39. FTLoko Vltavín 2–1 Admira Praha · Loko Vltavín win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Loko Vltavín are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Loko Vltavín 43%, draw 26%, Admira Praha 31%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Loko Vltavín v Admira PrahaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Loko Vltavín win43%
Draw26%
Admira Praha win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 09:15

RoundGroup A · matchday 12

VenueStadion U Pruhonu

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Loko Vltavín

Admira Praha

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. liga - CFL A

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. liga - CFL A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Loko Vltavín11−315
9Admira Praha11−314

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · loko vltavín winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
43% The market38%
Us43%
Market38%

We make Loko Vltavín a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Loko Vltavín v Admira Praha1.54 – 1.27
Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL A this season · since 12 SeptW2 D0 L4 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 15 v 147 v 9
The market · Loko Vltavín win38% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 08:38
Our probability · Loko Vltavín win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Loko Vltavín win43%38%+5
Draw26%25%+1
Admira Praha win31%37%−6
Over 2.5 goals53%62%−9
Both teams to score56%64%−8
Over 1.5 goals77%82%−5
Over 3.5 goals31%41%−10
Loko Vltavín or draw69%63%+6
Loko Vltavín clean sheet29%––
Admira Praha clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%
0123450 6.9 7.1 4.9 2.1 1 8.8 12.2 7.3 3.1 2 7.2 8.8 5.6 2.4 3 3.7 4.6 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Loko Vltavín down, Admira Praha across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.80
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsADM 1–0 LOK · LOK 1–3 ADM · LOK 0–2 ADM · ADM 1–1 LOK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL A this season · since 12 Sept

LOKO VLTAVÍN

WLLLWL4–2 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–2

ADMIRA PRAHA

DWLDWW1–1 · 4–1 · 2–3 · 4–4 · 4–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1České Budějovice11+2125
2Králův Dvůr10+1325
3Jiskra Domažlice11+521
4Motorlet Praha11+820
5Viktoria Plzeň II10+820
6Sparta Praha II9+1116
7Loko Vltavín11−315
8Slavia III11+214
9Admira Praha11−314
10Bohemians 1905 II11−413
11Písek11−711
12Příbram II10−310
13Dukla Praha II11−310
14Aritma Praha11−178
15Benešov10−97
16Povltava FA11−192

Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.