Dukla Praha II v Písek prediction · 3. liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 12:06

Dukla Praha II 4–0 Písek DUKLA PRAHA II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dukla Praha II win~~41%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.526

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.676

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dukla Praha II win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dukla Praha II was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–25–34
1′KICK-OFF Dukla Praha II v Písek
17′Dukla Praha II score on 16′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 67–19–14
17′We published Dukla Praha II at 41%. Our model now makes it 67%. 1–0 · 67–19–14
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Dukla Praha II 1–0 Písek
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Dukla Praha II win: 41% at kick-off, 67% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 68–20–12
34′Dukla Praha II find the net on 34′. 2–0. 2–0 · 89–8–3
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Dukla Praha II 2–0 Písek
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Dukla Praha II win: 41% at kick-off, 89% now
35′We published Dukla Praha II at 41%. Our model now makes it 89%. 2–0 · 89–8–3
38′We published Dukla Praha II at 41%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Dukla Praha II win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
45′HALF-TIME Dukla Praha II 3–0 Písek
46′SECOND HALF Dukla Praha II 3–0 Písek
47′A goal for Dukla Praha II on 45′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 98–2–0
47′We published Dukla Praha II at 41%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–0 · 98–2–0
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Dukla Praha II 3–0 Písek
47′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45+2' Dukla Praha II
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Dukla Praha II 3–0 Písek
59′Dukla Praha II score on 59′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
59′We published Dukla Praha II at 41%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Dukla Praha II 4–0 Písek
60′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
89′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Písek · On: M. Suba · Off: M. Kalousek
FTFULL TIME Dukla Praha II 4–0 Písek
FTDukla Praha II 4–0 Písek · Dukla Praha II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dukla Praha II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dukla Praha II 41%, draw 25%, Písek 34%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Dukla Praha II v PísekBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dukla Praha II win41%

Draw25%

Písek win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 09:15

RoundGroup A · matchday 11

VenueStadion FK Zbuzany

Line-ups

Dukla Praha II

Písek

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dukla Praha II

Písek

7Days since last match9

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. liga - CFL A

Last match: 9 Oct · 3. liga - CFL A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Písek	10	−3	11
14	Dukla Praha II	10	−7	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dukla Praha II

Formation not confirmed

2 M. Folprecht

4 F. Skalnik

5 J. Regal

6 A. Franke

9 L. Kostka

10 V. Babka

12 E. Rotundo

13 P. Gaszczyk

18 T. Schanelec

21 O. Lilling

31 D. Basta

Coach · –

Substitutes

7 · F. Breburda

8 · D. Ungerman

11 · M. Bezstarosti

15 · M. Kroupa

16 · L. Jelinek

20 · M. Koci

44 · J. Mencl

Písek

Formation not confirmed

4 J. Kaspar

7 F. Lorincz

8 A. Sedlacek

10 M. Kalousek

11 R. Polansky

12 O. Belousek

19 J. Kucharik

20 V. Bartizal

21 J. Malecha

27 M. Prasek

29 M. Cechal

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · T. Lerch

5 · J. Parizek

9 · T. Riha

14 · M. Suba

15 · M. Voracek

18 · F. Firbacher

Our number · dukla praha ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market34%

Us41%

~~Market~~34%

We make Dukla Praha II a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dukla Praha II v Písek~~1.61 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL A this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 11~~14 v 9

~~The market · Dukla Praha II win~~34% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dukla Praha II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dukla Praha II win	41%	34%	+7
Draw	25%	25%	0
Písek win	34%	41%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	59%	62%	−3
Both teams to score	61%	64%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	82%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	36%	40%	−4
Dukla Praha II or draw	66%	59%	+7
Dukla Praha II clean sheet	24%	–	–
Písek clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.5 6.3 5.0 2.4 1 7.1 11.4 7.8 3.8 2 6.1 8.6 6.2 3.0 3 3.3 4.6 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dukla Praha II down, Písek across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,298 3. liga - CFL A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - CFL A matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.1% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.38 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dukla Praha II at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Písek away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Dukla Praha II, 1.45 for Písek. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~DUK 0–3 PIS · PIS 1–0 DUK · DUK 0–2 PIS · PIS 1–1 DUK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL A this season · since 5 Sept

DUKLA PRAHA II

LDDDLL1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–2

PÍSEK

DWLDDD1–1 · 3–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	České Budějovice	11	+21	25
2	Králův Dvůr	10	+13	25
3	Jiskra Domažlice	10	+10	21
4	Motorlet Praha	11	+8	20
5	Viktoria Plzeň II	9	+5	17
6	Sparta Praha II	9	+11	16
7	Loko Vltavín	11	−3	15
8	Slavia III	11	+2	14
9	Písek	10	−3	11
10	Admira Praha	10	−4	11
11	Příbram II	10	−3	10
12	Bohemians 1905 II	10	−9	10
13	Aritma Praha	10	−14	8
14	Dukla Praha II	10	−7	7
15	Benešov	10	−9	7
16	Povltava FA	10	−18	2