Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › 3. liga - CFL A › České Budějovice v Loko Vltavín

Back
Czech Republic flag

České Budějovice v Loko Vltavín

České Budějovice
2–1Full time
Loko Vltavín

3. liga - CFL A · SAT 17 OCT · Strelecky ostrov

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
České Budějovice 2–1 Loko Vltavín ČESKÉ BUDĚJOVICE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said České Budějovice win66%
The market said73%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.178
The market’s Brier score0.110

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 35 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said České Budějovice win at 66%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: České Budějovice 66% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–19–16
  3. 1′KICK-OFF České Budějovice v Loko Vltavín
  4. 6′A goal for České Budějovice on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 84–10–6
  5. 6′⚽ GOAL · 6' České Budějovice 1–0 Loko Vltavín
  6. 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' České Budějovice win: 66% at kick-off, 84% now
  7. 7′We said České Budějovice at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–10–6
  8. 24′Loko Vltavín score on 24′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 60–23–17
  9. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' České Budějovice 1–1 Loko Vltavín
  10. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' České Budějovice win: 66% at kick-off, 60% now
  11. 25′GOAL DISALLOWED · 25' Loko Vltavín
  12. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' České Budějovice win: 66% at kick-off, 83% now
  13. 29′České Budějovice are down to ten from 29′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 83–12–5
  14. 29′🟥 RED CARD · 29' České Budějovice
  15. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 83–12–5
  16. 38′D. I. Nemec scores for České Budějovice on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–13–4
  17. 38′České Budějovice are down to ten from 31′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 83–13–4
  18. 39′We said České Budějovice at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–13–4
  19. 45′HALF-TIME České Budějovice 1–0 Loko Vltavín
  20. 46′SECOND HALF České Budějovice 1–0 Loko Vltavín
  21. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' České Budějovice · On: T. Abdullahi · Off: M. Zeman
  22. 49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Loko Vltavín
  23. 56′Loko Vltavín score on 56′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 46–38–16
  24. 56′We said České Budějovice at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 46%. 1–1 · 46–38–16
  25. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' České Budějovice 1–1 Loko Vltavín
  26. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' České Budějovice win: 66% at kick-off, 46% now
  27. 57′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–1 · 45–38–16
  28. 59′We said České Budějovice at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–40–16
  29. 60′České Budějovice find the net on 59′. 2–1. 2–1 · 84–13–3
  30. 60′⚽ GOAL · 59' České Budějovice 2–1 Loko Vltavín
  31. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' České Budějovice win: 66% at kick-off, 84% now
  32. 62′We said České Budějovice at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
  33. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Loko Vltavín · On: J. Jakab · Off: J. Havrlik
  34. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' České Budějovice win: 66% at kick-off, 86% now
  35. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Loko Vltavín
  36. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Loko Vltavín · On: M. Candela · Off: V. Plachy
  37. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Loko Vltavín · On: D. Lasek · Off: D. Kotrba
  38. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Loko Vltavín
  39. 78′We said České Budějovice at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  40. 81′A goal for Loko Vltavín on 80′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 19–72–8
  41. 81′We said České Budějovice at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–72–8
  42. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Loko Vltavín · On: V. Venc · Off: F. Kaczmarek Corrected
  43. 81′⚽ GOAL · 80' České Budějovice 2–2 Loko Vltavín
  44. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' České Budějovice win: 66% at kick-off, 19% now
  45. 81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 72% (was České Budějovice win 19%)
  46. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Loko Vltavín · On: T. Vancura · Off: B. Rudavskyi Corrected
  47. 82′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 18–75–8
  48. 82′GOAL DISALLOWED · 82' Loko Vltavín
  49. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' České Budějovice win: 66% at kick-off, 92% now
  50. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' České Budějovice win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 7%)
  51. 86′We said České Budějovice at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  52. 87′We said České Budějovice at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  53. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' České Budějovice win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
  54. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' České Budějovice
  55. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Loko Vltavín
  56. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 86' České Budějovice · On: D. Artymovych · Off: V. Charvat
  57. FTFULL TIME České Budějovice 2–1 Loko Vltavín
  58. FTČeské Budějovice 2–1 Loko Vltavín · České Budějovice win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

České Budějovice are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: České Budějovice 66%, draw 19%, Loko Vltavín 16%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on České Budějovice v Loko VltavínBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

České Budějovice win66%
Draw19%
Loko Vltavín win16%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundGroup A · matchday 11

VenueStrelecky ostrov

Line-ups

České Budějovice

Loko Vltavín

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

České Budějovice

Loko Vltavín

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. liga - CFL A

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. liga - CFL A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1České Budějovice10+2022
7Loko Vltavín10−215

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

České Budějovice

Formation not confirmed

4 O. Novak

7 T. Gantogtokh

10 D. I. Nemec

12 D. Louzecky

14 M. Zeman

18 M. Faltus

21 M. Doudera

22 V. Charvat

28 Y. Terekhov

29 J. Volek

31 D. Emmanuel

Coach · –

Substitutes

6 · J. Brabec

9 · T. Abdullahi

13 · D. Sturma

17 · D. Artymovych

24 · L. Simecek

30 · M. Lis

Loko Vltavín

Formation not confirmed

4 B. Rudavskyi

5 V. Plachy

7 J. Havrlik

9 D. Kotrba

11 M. Lehocky

14 D. Bohac

16 F. Kaczmarek

20 N. Demmer

23 P. Tvaroh

25 A. T. Sivok

30 D. Kerl

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · P. Storc

3 · V. Venc

6 · T. Vancura

8 · V. Holinka

12 · D. Lasek

19 · J. Jakab

21 · M. Candela

Our number · české budějovice winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
66% The market73%
Us66%
Market73%

We make České Budějovice a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · České Budějovice v Loko Vltavín2.42 – 1.11
Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL A this season · since 4 SeptW3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 22 v 151 v 7
The market · České Budějovice win73% · ours 66%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70%75%80% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 14:05
Our probability · České Budějovice win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 73% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
České Budějovice win66%73%−7
Draw19%16%+3
Loko Vltavín win16%11%+5
Over 2.5 goals68%68%0
Both teams to score61%55%+6
Over 1.5 goals87%84%+3
Over 3.5 goals47%49%−2
České Budějovice or draw84%89%−5
České Budějovice clean sheet34%––
Loko Vltavín clean sheet9%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.3%
0123450 3.6 3.0 1 6.9 8.2 4.3 2 8.6 9.3 5.1 3 6.9 7.4 4.1 4 4.2 4.5 2.5 5 2.1 2.3
under 2% 5% 12%+České Budějovice down, Loko Vltavín across0–5 goals a side shown (95.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL A this season · since 4 Sept

ČESKÉ BUDĚJOVICE

DLWLWW2–2 · 2–3 · 7–0 · 3–6 · 3–0 · 3–1

LOKO VLTAVÍN

DWLLLW2–2 · 4–2 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1České Budějovice10+2022
2Králův Dvůr9+1222
3Jiskra Domažlice10+1021
4Motorlet Praha11+820
5Viktoria Plzeň II9+517
6Sparta Praha II9+1116
7Loko Vltavín10−215
8Slavia III10+314
9Písek10−311
10Admira Praha10−411
11Příbram II10−310
12Bohemians 1905 II10−910
13Aritma Praha10−148
14Dukla Praha II10−77
15Benešov10−97
16Povltava FA10−182

Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.