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Benešov v Bohemians 1905 II

Benešov

2–1Full time

Bohemians 1905 II

3. liga - CFL A · SAT 24 OCT · Football Pitch Benesov

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 12:08

Benešov 2–1 Bohemians 1905 II BOHEMIANS 1905 II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bohemians 1905 II win~~43%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.664

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.572

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bohemians 1905 II win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bohemians 1905 II was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 35–22–43
1′KICK-OFF Benešov v Bohemians 1905 II
18′We said Bohemians 1905 II at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 1–0 · 59–20–21
18′Benešov score on 18′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 59–20–21
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Benešov 1–0 Bohemians 1905 II
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Bohemians 1905 II win: 43% at kick-off, 21% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Benešov win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Bohemians 1905 II win 41%)
20′17′: P. Hampl on the scoresheet for Benešov, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 59–21–21
25′We said Bohemians 1905 II at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 60–21–19
28′We said Bohemians 1905 II at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 2–0 · 81–12–7
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Benešov 2–0 Bohemians 1905 II
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Bohemians 1905 II win: 43% at kick-off, 7% now
30′Benešov find the net on 29′. 2–0. 2–0 · 82–12–7
40′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 2–0 · 85–11–5
43′We said Bohemians 1905 II at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 85–10–4
45′HALF-TIME Benešov 2–0 Bohemians 1905 II
45′SECOND HALF Benešov 2–0 Bohemians 1905 II
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Bohemians 1905 II win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
55′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Bohemians 1905 II · On: D. Drahovzal · Off: K. Kachur
67′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Bohemians 1905 II · On: D. Salac · Off: M. Suryn
67′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Bohemians 1905 II · On: M. Spacek · Off: M. Nechvatal
67′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Bohemians 1905 II · On: A. Bui · Off: D. Pomahac
68′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Benešov · On: A. T. Trenkwitz · Off: O. Kubis
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Benešov
82′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Benešov · On: A. Lupac · Off: M. Dolezal
83′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Bohemians 1905 II · On: D. Muller · Off: J. Mudrik
83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Benešov · On: S. Stary · Off: J. Vosahlo
83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Benešov · On: O. Soukup · Off: T. Pilik
83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Benešov · On: M. Redina · Off: M. Cettl
84′A goal for Bohemians 1905 II on 84′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 89–10–1
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Benešov 2–1 Bohemians 1905 II
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Benešov
94′Full time, 2–1. We called Bohemians 1905 II at 43% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Benešov 2–1 Bohemians 1905 II
FTBenešov 2–1 Bohemians 1905 II · Bohemians 1905 II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bohemians 1905 II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Benešov 35%, draw 22%, Bohemians 1905 II 43%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Benešov v Bohemians 1905 IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Benešov win35%

Draw22%

Bohemians 1905 II win43%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 09:15

RoundGroup A · matchday 12

VenueFootball Pitch Benesov

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Benešov

Bohemians 1905 II

14Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. liga - CFL A

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. liga - CFL A

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Bohemians 1905 II	11	−4	13
15	Benešov	10	−9	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bohemians 1905 ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

43% The market37%

Us43%

~~Market~~37%

We make Bohemians 1905 II a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Benešov v Bohemians 1905 II~~1.71 – 1.93

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL A this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 13~~15 v 10

~~The market · Bohemians 1905 II win~~37% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bohemians 1905 II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Benešov win	35%	39%	−4
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Bohemians 1905 II win	43%	37%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	70%	69%	+1
Both teams to score	69%	70%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	88%	85%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	49%	49%	0
Benešov or draw	57%	63%	−6
Benešov clean sheet	15%	–	–
Bohemians 1905 II clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.4 4.8 5.0 3.2 1 4.3 9.1 8.0 5.1 2.6 2 4.0 7.2 6.7 4.3 2.1 3 2.3 4.1 3.8 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Benešov down, Bohemians 1905 II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,302 3. liga - CFL A matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - CFL A matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.6% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Benešov at home: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Bohemians 1905 II away: 1.33 scored, 3.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Benešov, 1.93 for Bohemians 1905 II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL A this season · since 5 Sept

BENEŠOV

DLDLLL2–2 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–4

BOHEMIANS 1905 II

LWDDDW1–4 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 3–3 · 7–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	České Budějovice	11	+21	25
2	Králův Dvůr	10	+13	25
3	Jiskra Domažlice	11	+5	21
4	Motorlet Praha	11	+8	20
5	Viktoria Plzeň II	10	+8	20
6	Sparta Praha II	9	+11	16
7	Loko Vltavín	11	−3	15
8	Slavia III	11	+2	14
9	Admira Praha	11	−3	14
10	Bohemians 1905 II	11	−4	13
11	Písek	11	−7	11
12	Příbram II	10	−3	10
13	Dukla Praha II	11	−3	10
14	Aritma Praha	11	−17	8
15	Benešov	10	−9	7
16	Povltava FA	11	−19	2