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Aritma Praha v Dukla Praha II

Aritma Praha

0–0Full time

Dukla Praha II

3. liga - CFL A · SAT 24 OCT · SK Aritma Praha

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 12:08

Aritma Praha 0–0 Dukla Praha II ARITMA PRAHA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aritma Praha win~~39%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.844

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.834

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aritma Praha win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Aritma Praha 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–25–36
1′KICK-OFF Aritma Praha v Dukla Praha II
45′HALF-TIME Aritma Praha 0–0 Dukla Praha II
45′SECOND HALF Aritma Praha 0–0 Dukla Praha II
46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Dukla Praha II
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Aritma Praha win 34%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.1 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 30–42–28
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Aritma Praha win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
61′We said Aritma Praha at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–47–26
67′We said Aritma Praha at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–53–23
74′We said Aritma Praha at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–62–18
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Aritma Praha win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Aritma Praha
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Dukla Praha II · On: D. Ungerman · Off: P. Gaszczyk
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Aritma Praha · On: N. Wacker · Off: E. Biegon
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Aritma Praha · On: V. Patka · Off: A. Kokes
80′We said Aritma Praha at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–13
80′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Dukla Praha II · On: L. Kostka · Off: T. Schanelec
80′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Dukla Praha II · On: L. Jelinek · Off: V. Babka
80′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Dukla Praha II · On: J. Hajek · Off: J. Regal
80′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Aritma Praha · On: F. Vacha · Off: A. Vich
84′We said Aritma Praha at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–82–9
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Aritma Praha win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
91′We said Aritma Praha at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
94′0–0 at the end. Our 39% on Aritma Praha misses, and the record keeps it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Aritma Praha 0–0 Dukla Praha II
FTAritma Praha 0–0 Dukla Praha II · Aritma Praha win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Aritma Praha just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Aritma Praha 39%, draw 25%, Dukla Praha II 36%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Aritma Praha v Dukla Praha IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Aritma Praha win39%

Draw25%

Dukla Praha II win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 09:15

RoundGroup A · matchday 12

VenueSK Aritma Praha

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aritma Praha

Dukla Praha II

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. liga - CFL A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Dukla Praha II	11	−3	10
14	Aritma Praha	11	−17	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aritma praha winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

39% The market37%

Us39%

~~Market~~37%

We make Aritma Praha a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aritma Praha v Dukla Praha II~~1.57 – 1.49

~~Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL A this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 10~~14 v 13

~~The market · Aritma Praha win~~37% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Aritma Praha win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aritma Praha win	39%	37%	+2
Draw	25%	25%	0
Dukla Praha II win	36%	38%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	59%	60%	−1
Both teams to score	61%	63%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	80%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	37%	39%	−2
Aritma Praha or draw	64%	62%	+2
Aritma Praha clean sheet	23%	–	–
Dukla Praha II clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.5 6.5 5.2 2.6 1 6.9 11.4 8.0 4.0 2 5.8 8.4 6.2 3.1 3 3.0 4.4 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aritma Praha down, Dukla Praha II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,302 3. liga - CFL A matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. liga - CFL A matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.6% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aritma Praha at home: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Dukla Praha II away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Aritma Praha, 1.49 for Dukla Praha II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ARI 2–1 DUK · DUK 0–1 ARI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. liga - CFL A this season · since 12 Sept

ARITMA PRAHA

LLWDDL1–3 · 0–7 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 0–3

DUKLA PRAHA II

DDDLLW1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	České Budějovice	11	+21	25
2	Králův Dvůr	10	+13	25
3	Jiskra Domažlice	11	+5	21
4	Motorlet Praha	11	+8	20
5	Viktoria Plzeň II	10	+8	20
6	Sparta Praha II	9	+11	16
7	Loko Vltavín	11	−3	15
8	Slavia III	11	+2	14
9	Admira Praha	11	−3	14
10	Bohemians 1905 II	11	−4	13
11	Písek	11	−7	11
12	Příbram II	10	−3	10
13	Dukla Praha II	11	−3	10
14	Aritma Praha	11	−17	8
15	Benešov	10	−9	7
16	Povltava FA	11	−19	2