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Karviná U19 v Sparta Praha U19

Karviná U19

1–2Full time

Sparta Praha U19

1. Liga U19 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56

Karviná U19 1–2 Sparta Praha U19 SPARTA PRAHA U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Sparta Praha U19 win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.394

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sparta Praha U19 win at 49%.
1′KICK-OFF Karviná U19 v Sparta Praha U19
2′Much as we predicted: Sparta Praha U19 was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 30–21–49
13′A goal for Karviná U19 on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 53–21–26
13′We said Sparta Praha U19 at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–0 · 53–21–26
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Karviná U19 1–0 Sparta Praha U19
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Sparta Praha U19 win: 49% at kick-off, 26% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Karviná U19 win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Sparta Praha U19 win 26%)
21′We said Sparta Praha U19 at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 54–22–24
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.8 we expected. 1–0 · 56–23–22
38′We said Sparta Praha U19 at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 57–23–19
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Sparta Praha U19 win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
45′HALF-TIME Karviná U19 1–0 Sparta Praha U19
46′SECOND HALF Karviná U19 1–0 Sparta Praha U19
51′We said Sparta Praha U19 at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 61–24–14
63′We said Sparta Praha U19 at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–24–9
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Sparta Praha U19 win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
65′Sparta Praha U19 score on 65′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 23–45–32
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Karviná U19 1–1 Sparta Praha U19
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Sparta Praha U19 win: 49% at kick-off, 32% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Karviná U19 win 23%)
66′We said Sparta Praha U19 at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 23–46–31
70′Sparta Praha U19 find the net on 70′. 1–2. 1–2 · 4–17–79
70′We published Sparta Praha U19 at 49%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–2 · 4–17–79
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Karviná U19 1–2 Sparta Praha U19
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Sparta Praha U19 win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Sparta Praha U19 win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 17%)
71′We published Sparta Praha U19 at 49%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
78′We published Sparta Praha U19 at 49%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Sparta Praha U19 win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
83′We published Sparta Praha U19 at 49%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
90′We published Sparta Praha U19 at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Karviná U19 1–2 Sparta Praha U19
FTKarviná U19 1–2 Sparta Praha U19 · Sparta Praha U19 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sparta Praha U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Karviná U19 30%, draw 21%, Sparta Praha U19 49%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Karviná U19 v Sparta Praha U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Karviná U19 win30%

Draw21%

Sparta Praha U19 win49%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Karviná U19

Sparta Praha U19

8Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · 1. Liga U19

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Sparta Praha U19	9	+1	10
15	Karviná U19	10	−23	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sparta praha u19 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Sparta Praha U19 a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–2.2, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Karviná U19 v Sparta Praha U19~~1.66 – 2.15

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga U19 this season · since 1 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 10~~15 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karviná U19 win	30%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Sparta Praha U19 win	49%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	52%	–	–
Karviná U19 or draw	51%	–	–
Karviná U19 clean sheet	12%	–	–
Sparta Praha U19 clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.3%

0123450 2.5 4.9 5.2 3.7 2.0 1 3.8 8.0 8.3 5.9 3.2 2 3.2 6.5 6.8 4.8 2.6 3 3.6 3.8 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karviná U19 down, Sparta Praha U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,278 1. Liga U19 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga U19 matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.2% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karviná U19 at home: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sparta Praha U19 away: 2.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Karviná U19, 2.15 for Sparta Praha U19. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KAR 3–1 SPA · SPA 4–2 KAR · SPA 1–0 KAR · KAR 1–2 SPA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga U19 this season · since 1 Sept

KARVINÁ U19

WLLLLL3–2 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 2–6 · 0–2 · 0–5

SPARTA PRAHA U19

LWLWDL3–5 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Opava U19	10	+13	22
2	Baník Ostrava U19	9	+4	21
3	Viktoria Plzeň U19	8	+17	19
4	Hradec Králové U19	11	+12	19
5	Sigma Olomouc U19	9	+11	19
6	Dukla Praha U19	10	+6	17
7	Mladá Boleslav U19	10	+3	16
8	Teplice U19	10	−3	16
9	České Budějovice U19	9	+9	14
10	Zbrojovka Brno U19	10	+1	14
11	Sparta Praha U19	9	+1	10
12	Slovácko U19	10	−8	10
13	Pardubice U19	12	−15	8
14	Slavia Praha U19	9	−10	6
15	Karviná U19	10	−23	6
16	Zlín U19	10	−18	5