Nea Salamis v APEA
Nea SalamisAPEACup · WED 21 OCT · Ammochostos Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Nea Salamis win at 62%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Nea Salamis 62% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–23–15
- 1′KICK-OFF Nea Salamis v APEA
- 24′We said Nea Salamis at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–12–4
- 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Nea Salamis 1–0 APEA
- 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Nea Salamis win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
- 25′A goal for Nea Salamis on 25′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 85–12–4
- 28′🟥 RED CARD · 28' APEA
- 29′APEA are down to ten from 29′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 85–12–3
- 31′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 85–12–3
- 45′SECOND HALF Nea Salamis 1–0 APEA
- 47′HALF-TIME Nea Salamis 1–0 APEA
- 69′We said Nea Salamis at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
- 70′We said Nea Salamis at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
- 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Nea Salamis 2–0 APEA
- 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Nea Salamis win: 62% at kick-off, 99% now
- 71′Nea Salamis score on 71′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
- 76′We said Nea Salamis at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 81′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Nea Salamis 3–0 APEA
- 83′Nea Salamis find the net on 82′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 87′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
- 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Nea Salamis 4–0 APEA
- 88′A goal for Nea Salamis on 87′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
- 92′4–0 at the end. Our 62% on Nea Salamis comes in. 4–0 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Nea Salamis 4–0 APEA
- FTNea Salamis 4–0 APEA · Nea Salamis win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Nea Salamis are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Nea Salamis 62%, draw 23%, APEA 15%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 40%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
Nea Salamis win62%APEA win15%Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 16:00
RoundRound of 32
VenueAmmochostos Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Nea SalamisMINAPEAEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Nea Salamis
APEA
Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)
Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Nea Salamis a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 64%, 62% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 77% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nea Salamis win | 62% | 77% | −15 |
| Draw | 23% | 16% | +7 |
| APEA win | 15% | 8% | +7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 60% | −16 |
| Both teams to score | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 80% | −10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 39% | −15 |
| Nea Salamis or draw | 85% | 92% | −7 |
| Nea Salamis clean sheet | 50% | – | – |
| APEA clean sheet | 18% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
1 meeting since 2022/23Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Cup this season
NEA SALAMIS
No matches in our record yet.
APEA
No matches in our record yet.