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Model 1.1

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Aris v Ethnikos Achna

Aris
4–0Full time
Ethnikos Achna

Cup · WED 14 OCT · Alphamega Stadium

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 19:45
Aris 4–0 Ethnikos Achna ARIS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Aris win67%
The market said73%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.160
The market’s Brier score0.110

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Aris win at 67%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Aris 67% before kick-off, 68% now. 0–0 · 68–18–14
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Aris v Ethnikos Achna
  4. 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Aris 1–0 Ethnikos Achna
  5. 12′Aris find the net on 10′. 1–0. 1–0 · 86–10–4
  6. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Aris win: 67% at kick-off, 86% now
  7. 14′We said Aris at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–10–4
  8. 31′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 85–11–4
  9. 37′A goal for Aris on 37′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–1
  10. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Aris 2–0 Ethnikos Achna
  11. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Aris win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
  12. 40′We said Aris at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–1
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Aris 2–0 Ethnikos Achna
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Aris 2–0 Ethnikos Achna
  15. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Aris 3–0 Ethnikos Achna
  16. 58′57′ and it is 3–0: Aris have scored. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  17. 60′We said Aris at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  18. 86′Aris find the net on 86′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  19. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Aris 4–0 Ethnikos Achna
  20. 88′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  21. FTFULL TIME Aris 4–0 Ethnikos Achna
  22. FTAris 4–0 Ethnikos Achna · Aris win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Aris v Ethnikos AchnaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 16:33 · locked at kick-off

Aris win67%
Draw18%
Ethnikos Achna win14%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 17:00

VenueAlphamega Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Aris

Ethnikos Achna

266Days since last match280
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aris winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 16:33 · locked at kick-off
67% The market73%
Us67%
Market73%

We make Aris a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Aris v Ethnikos Achna2.31 – 0.94
Last six in CupW2 D2 L2 · W3 D0 L3
The market · Aris win73% · ours 67%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75% 9 OCT 06:2114 OCT 15:50
Our probability · aris win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 73% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Aris win67%73%−6
Draw18%17%+1
Ethnikos Achna win14%9%+5
Over 2.5 goals62%59%+4
Both teams to score54%43%+11
Over 1.5 goals83%80%+3
Over 3.5 goals41%38%+2
Aris or draw86%91%−5
Aris clean sheet40%––
Ethnikos Achna clean sheet11%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.2%
0123450 4.3 3.8 1 9.1 8.5 4.0 2 10.2 9.4 4.4 3 7.8 7.1 3.3 4 4.6 4.2 5 2.2 2.0
under 2% 5% 12%+Aris down, Ethnikos Achna across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.57 of 8
Both scored4 of 8
Last meetingsETH 0–3 ARI · ARI 3–0 ETH · ARI 6–1 ETH · ETH 1–2 ARI

Form · last six in Cup

ARIS

LDLWDW3–4 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–1

ETHNIKOS ACHNA

WLWLWL1–0 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–2