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Model 1.2

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AEK Larnaca v Akritas

AEK Larnaca
3–2After extra time
Akritas

Cup · WED 21 OCT · AEK Arena

After 90 minutesGraded 21 Oct 18:01
AEK Larnaca 2–2 Akritas AEK LARNACA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said AEK Larnaca win76%
The market said87%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.308
The market’s Brier score1.573

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 2–2, the score after 90 minutes. It finished 3–2 after extra time.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay29 notes · 35 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said AEK Larnaca win at 76%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF AEK Larnaca v Akritas
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: AEK Larnaca was 76% before kick-off and our model makes it 76% now. 0–0 · 76–16–8
  4. 8′We said AEK Larnaca at 76%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 51%. 0–1 · 51–23–26
  5. 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' AEK Larnaca 0–1 Akritas
  6. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' AEK Larnaca win: 76% at kick-off, 51% now
  7. 10′Akritas find the net on 9′. 0–1. 0–1 · 50–24–26
  8. 12′We said AEK Larnaca at 76%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–1 · 49–24–27
  9. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' AEK Larnaca win: 76% at kick-off, 46% now
  10. 21′We said AEK Larnaca at 76%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–1 · 44–26–29
  11. 30′We said AEK Larnaca at 76%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–1 · 39–28–33
  12. 31′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 38–28–33
  13. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' AEK Larnaca win: 76% at kick-off, 36% now
  14. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' AEK Larnaca 1–1 Akritas
  15. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' AEK Larnaca win: 76% at kick-off, 65% now
  16. 36′A goal for AEK Larnaca on 35′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 64–26–10
  17. 37′We said AEK Larnaca at 76%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 64%. 1–1 · 64–26–10
  18. 38′We published AEK Larnaca at 76%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–8–2
  19. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' AEK Larnaca 2–1 Akritas
  20. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' AEK Larnaca win: 76% at kick-off, 90% now
  21. 39′AEK Larnaca score on 39′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 90–8–2
  22. 40′GOAL DISALLOWED · 40' AEK Larnaca
  23. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' AEK Larnaca win: 76% at kick-off, 62% now
  24. 45′SECOND HALF AEK Larnaca 1–1 Akritas
  25. 49′HALF-TIME AEK Larnaca 1–1 Akritas
  26. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' AEK Larnaca win: 76% at kick-off, 56% now
  27. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' AEK Larnaca win: 76% at kick-off, 46% now
  28. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was AEK Larnaca win 46%)
  29. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' AEK Larnaca win: 76% at kick-off, 35% now
  30. 72′🟥 RED CARD · 72' AEK Larnaca
  31. 74′A red card for AEK Larnaca on 73′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 32–60–7
  32. 75′We said AEK Larnaca at 76%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 31–62–7
  33. 76′We said AEK Larnaca at 76%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–64–7
  34. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' AEK Larnaca win: 76% at kick-off, 26% now
  35. 79′We said AEK Larnaca at 76%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–70–6
  36. 82′We said AEK Larnaca at 76%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–77–4
  37. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' AEK Larnaca win: 76% at kick-off, 15% now
  38. 86′We said AEK Larnaca at 76%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 1–1 · 12–84–3
  39. 86′We published AEK Larnaca at 76%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–1 · 97–3–0
  40. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' AEK Larnaca 2–1 Akritas
  41. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' AEK Larnaca win: 76% at kick-off, 97% now
  42. 86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' AEK Larnaca win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 84%)
  43. 87′AEK Larnaca score on 87′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 97–3–0
  44. 87′GOAL DISALLOWED · 87' AEK Larnaca
  45. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' AEK Larnaca win: 76% at kick-off, 11% now
  46. 87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 86% (was AEK Larnaca win 97%)
  47. 90′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes AEK Larnaca likeliest at 49%. 2–2 · 49–42–9
  48. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' AEK Larnaca 2–1 Akritas
  49. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' AEK Larnaca win: 76% at kick-off, 98% now
  50. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' AEK Larnaca win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 90%)
  51. 92′AEK Larnaca score on 90′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  52. 93′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes AEK Larnaca likeliest at 46%. 2–2 · 46–45–9
  53. 95′We said AEK Larnaca at 76%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 2–2 · 3–97–1
  54. 95′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 47%. 2–2 · 44–47–9
  55. 95′H. Milicevic scores for AEK Larnaca on 101′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 91–8–1
  56. 95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' AEK Larnaca 2–2 Akritas
  57. 95′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+5' AEK Larnaca win: 76% at kick-off, 3% now
  58. 95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was AEK Larnaca win 99%)
  59. 96′Akritas find the net on 90′. 2–2. 2–2 · 3–97–1 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  60. 97′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 3–97–1 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  61. 102′A goal for AEK Larnaca on 102′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 92–7–0
  62. 102′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 92–7–0
  63. 102′⚽ GOAL · 102' AEK Larnaca 3–2 Akritas
  64. 110′PENALTY MISSED · 110' Akritas
  65. FTFULL TIME AEK Larnaca 3–2 Akritas after extra time
  66. FTAEK Larnaca 2–2 Akritas after 90 minutes, as graded · AEK Larnaca win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AEK Larnaca are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AEK Larnaca 76%, draw 15%, Akritas 8%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on AEK Larnaca v AkritasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

AEK Larnaca win76%
Draw15%
Akritas win8%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 15:00

RoundRound of 32

VenueAEK Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AEK Larnaca

Akritas

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aek larnaca winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 21 Oct 04:10 · locked at kick-off
76% The market87%
Us76%
Market87%

We make AEK Larnaca a 76% chance to win. The market has them at 87%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · AEK Larnaca v Akritas2.49 – 0.64
The market · AEK Larnaca win87% · ours 76%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
75%80%85%90% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 14:45
Our probability · AEK Larnaca win The market, margin stripped

Published at 77%, 76% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 87% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
AEK Larnaca win76%87%−11
Draw15%9%+6
Akritas win8%4%+4
Over 2.5 goals60%74%−14
Both teams to score43%39%+4
Over 1.5 goals81%85%−4
Over 3.5 goals38%57%−19
AEK Larnaca or draw92%96%−4
AEK Larnaca clean sheet53%––
Akritas clean sheet9%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.2%
0123450 4.9 3.0 1 11.0 7.2 2.4 2 13.2 8.3 2.7 3 10.8 6.7 2.2 4 6.8 4.2 5 3.6 2.2
under 2% 5% 12%+AEK Larnaca down, Akritas across0–5 goals a side shown (95.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.53 of 5
Both scored3 of 5
Last meetingsAEK 3–0 AKR · AKR 1–1 AEK · AEK 5–0 AKR · AEK 1–1 AKR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season

AEK LARNACA

No matches in our record yet.

AKRITAS

No matches in our record yet.