Spartakos Kitiou v Ayia Napa prediction · 2. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Spartakos KitiouDrawAyia Napa

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Spartakos Kitiou 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spartakos Kitiou are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Spartakos Kitiou 46%, draw 23%, Ayia Napa 31%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Spartakos Kitiou v Ayia NapaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Spartakos Kitiou win46%

Draw23%

Ayia Napa win31%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Spartakos Kitiou

Ayia Napa

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Spartakos Kitiou	5	0	4
13	Ayia Napa	5	−5	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spartakos kitiou winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Spartakos Kitiou a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Spartakos Kitiou v Ayia Napa~~1.73 – 1.37

~~Form · 2. Division this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 4 v 4~~12 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spartakos Kitiou win	46%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Ayia Napa win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Spartakos Kitiou or draw	69%	–	–
Spartakos Kitiou clean sheet	27%	–	–
Ayia Napa clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 5.0 6.4 4.3 1 8.1 10.4 7.0 3.2 2 6.8 8.8 5.8 2.7 3 4.0 5.1 3.4 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Spartakos Kitiou down, Ayia Napa across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,196 2. Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Spartakos Kitiou at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ayia Napa away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Spartakos Kitiou, 1.37 for Ayia Napa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~AYI 2–0 SPA · AYI 3–1 SPA · SPA 4–1 AYI · AYI 1–0 SPA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Division this season · since 12 Sept

SPARTAKOS KITIOU

LWDLL0–1 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 1–2

AYIA NAPA

LDLLW1–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enosis	5	+6	13
2	Ethnikos Achna	5	+11	12
3	PAEEK	5	+6	12
4	Doxa	5	+5	11
5	APEA	5	+4	11
6	Ermis	5	+2	9
7	ASIL Lysi	5	+3	8
8	Iraklis Yerolakkou	5	−1	5
9	Digenis Morphou	5	0	5
10	Akritas	5	−1	5
11	Halkanoras	5	−2	5
12	Spartakos Kitiou	5	0	4
13	Ayia Napa	5	−5	4
14	Anagennisi Deryneia	5	−7	3
15	Polemidion	5	−9	3
16	MEAP Nisou	5	−12	1