Home › Football › 2. Division › Spartakos Kitiou v Anagennisi Deryneia

Spartakos Kitiou v Anagennisi Deryneia

Spartakos Kitiou

2–3Full time

Anagennisi Deryneia

2. Division · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Spartakos Kitiou 2–3 Anagennisi Deryneia SPARTAKOS KITIOU WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spartakos Kitiou win~~56%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.939

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.373

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Spartakos Kitiou win at 56%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Spartakos Kitiou 56% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–21–23
1′KICK-OFF Spartakos Kitiou v Anagennisi Deryneia
19′A goal for Anagennisi Deryneia on 18′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 28–24–48
19′We said Spartakos Kitiou at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–1 · 28–24–48
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Spartakos Kitiou 0–1 Anagennisi Deryneia
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Spartakos Kitiou win: 56% at kick-off, 28% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Anagennisi Deryneia win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Spartakos Kitiou win 28%)
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Spartakos Kitiou win: 56% at kick-off, 26% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 0–1 · 25–25–51
31′We said Spartakos Kitiou at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–25–51
43′We said Spartakos Kitiou at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
45′HALF-TIME Spartakos Kitiou 0–1 Anagennisi Deryneia
46′SECOND HALF Spartakos Kitiou 0–1 Anagennisi Deryneia
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Spartakos Kitiou win: 56% at kick-off, 16% now
54′We said Spartakos Kitiou at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
64′We said Spartakos Kitiou at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
70′Anagennisi Deryneia score on 69′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
70′We said Spartakos Kitiou at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Spartakos Kitiou 0–2 Anagennisi Deryneia
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Spartakos Kitiou win: 56% at kick-off, 1% now
78′Anagennisi Deryneia score on 69′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
78′We said Spartakos Kitiou at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 0–2 · 0–3–97
85′Spartakos Kitiou find the net on 85′. 1–2. 1–2 · 1–10–89
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Spartakos Kitiou 1–2 Anagennisi Deryneia
86′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–2 · 1–10–90
86′A goal for Anagennisi Deryneia on 86′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Spartakos Kitiou 1–3 Anagennisi Deryneia
87′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–99
88′Spartakos Kitiou score on 88′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 0–8–92
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Spartakos Kitiou 2–3 Anagennisi Deryneia
89′5 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 0–7–93
FTFULL TIME Spartakos Kitiou 2–3 Anagennisi Deryneia
FTSpartakos Kitiou 2–3 Anagennisi Deryneia · Spartakos Kitiou win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spartakos Kitiou are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Spartakos Kitiou 56%, draw 21%, Anagennisi Deryneia 23%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Spartakos Kitiou v Anagennisi DeryneiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Spartakos Kitiou win56%

Draw21%

Anagennisi Deryneia win23%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Spartakos Kitiou

Anagennisi Deryneia

3Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · Cup (Cyprus)

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Spartakos Kitiou	3	+2	4
16	Anagennisi Deryneia	3	−6	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spartakos kitiou winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

56% The market71%

Us56%

~~Market~~71%

We make Spartakos Kitiou a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Spartakos Kitiou v Anagennisi Deryneia~~2.07 – 1.23

~~Form · 2. Division this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L1 · W0 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 4 v 0~~8 v 16

~~The market · Spartakos Kitiou win~~71% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Spartakos Kitiou win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spartakos Kitiou win	56%	71%	−15
Draw	21%	20%	+1
Anagennisi Deryneia win	23%	9%	+14
Over 2.5 goals	62%	59%	+3
Both teams to score	59%	46%	+13
Over 1.5 goals	82%	81%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	41%	38%	+3
Spartakos Kitiou or draw	77%	91%	−14
Spartakos Kitiou clean sheet	31%	–	–
Anagennisi Deryneia clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 4.4 5.1 3.1 1 8.1 9.3 5.7 2.4 2 7.8 8.9 5.4 2.3 3 5.2 5.9 3.6 4 2.9 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Spartakos Kitiou down, Anagennisi Deryneia across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,181 2. Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Spartakos Kitiou at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Anagennisi Deryneia away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.07 goals for Spartakos Kitiou, 1.23 for Anagennisi Deryneia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SPA 3–4 ANA · ANA 3–1 SPA · ANA 1–3 SPA · SPA 2–0 ANA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Division this season · since 12 Sept

SPARTAKOS KITIOU

LWD0–1 · 4–1 · 0–0

ANAGENNISI DERYNEIA

LLL0–3 · 1–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enosis	4	+5	10
2	Ethnikos Achna	3	+10	9
3	ASIL Lysi	4	+3	7
4	Doxa	3	+2	7
5	PAEEK	3	0	6
6	Ermis	3	+2	6
7	APEA	3	+1	5
8	Spartakos Kitiou	3	+2	4
9	Digenis Morphou	3	+1	4
10	Iraklis Yerolakkou	3	0	4
11	Polemidion	3	−3	3
12	Ayia Napa	3	−3	1
13	Halkanoras	3	−3	1
14	Akritas	3	−3	1
15	MEAP Nisou	3	−8	1
16	Anagennisi Deryneia	3	−6	0