Polemidion v Akritas prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Polemidion 0–2 Akritas AKRITAS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Akritas win~~41%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.532

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.335

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Akritas win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Akritas was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 32–28–40
1′KICK-OFF Polemidion v Akritas
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Akritas win 36%)
38′Akritas find the net on 38′. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–20–73
38′We published Akritas at 41%. Our model now makes it 73%. 0–1 · 7–20–73
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Polemidion 0–1 Akritas
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Akritas win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Akritas win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 39%)
39′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 7–20–73
45′HALF-TIME Polemidion 0–2 Akritas
46′A goal for Akritas on 45′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
46′We published Akritas at 41%. Our model now makes it 94%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
46′⚽ GOAL · 45' Polemidion 0–2 Akritas
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Akritas win: 41% at kick-off, 94% now
46′SECOND HALF Polemidion 0–2 Akritas
50′We published Akritas at 41%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
82′We published Akritas at 41%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Polemidion 0–2 Akritas
FTPolemidion 0–2 Akritas · Akritas win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Akritas are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Polemidion 32%, draw 28%, Akritas 41%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Polemidion v AkritasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Polemidion win32%

Draw28%

Akritas win41%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Polemidion

Akritas

7Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

Last match: 21 Oct · Cup (Cyprus)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Polemidion	4	−7	3
14	Akritas	4	−3	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · akritas winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

41% The market53%

Us41%

~~Market~~53%

We make Akritas a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Polemidion v Akritas~~1.08 – 1.26

~~Form · 2. Division this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D0 L3 · W0 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 2~~12 v 14

~~The market · Akritas win~~53% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Akritas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Polemidion win	32%	22%	+10
Draw	28%	25%	+3
Akritas win	41%	53%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	41%	50%	−9
Both teams to score	46%	50%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	67%	71%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	21%	31%	−10
Polemidion or draw	59%	47%	+12
Polemidion clean sheet	29%	–	–
Akritas clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 10.2 12.2 7.6 3.3 1 10.5 12.5 7.8 3.4 2 5.6 6.7 4.2 3 2.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Polemidion down, Akritas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,189 2. Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 33 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Polemidion at home: 0.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 2). Akritas away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Polemidion, 1.26 for Akritas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Division this season · since 11 Sept

POLEMIDION

WLLL1–0 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–4

AKRITAS

LDLD0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ethnikos Achna	5	+11	12
2	Doxa	4	+5	10
3	Enosis	4	+5	10
4	PAEEK	4	+4	9
5	Ermis	4	+4	9
6	APEA	4	+2	8
7	ASIL Lysi	4	+3	7
8	Digenis Morphou	4	+1	5
9	Iraklis Yerolakkou	4	0	5
10	Spartakos Kitiou	4	+1	4
11	Anagennisi Deryneia	5	−7	3
12	Polemidion	4	−7	3
13	Halkanoras	4	−3	2
14	Akritas	4	−3	2
15	Ayia Napa	4	−6	1
16	MEAP Nisou	4	−10	1