PAEEK v Polemidion prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

PAEEK 4–0 Polemidion PAEEK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said PAEEK win~~49%

~~The market said~~77%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.388

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.083

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said PAEEK win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: PAEEK 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
1′KICK-OFF PAEEK v Polemidion
27′PAEEK score on 27′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–8
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' PAEEK 1–0 Polemidion
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' PAEEK win: 49% at kick-off, 75% now
28′We said PAEEK at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–7
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 75–17–7
45′HALF-TIME PAEEK 1–0 Polemidion
46′SECOND HALF PAEEK 1–0 Polemidion
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' PAEEK win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
56′We said PAEEK at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
71′We said PAEEK at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' PAEEK win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
79′PAEEK score on 27′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 90–10–1
79′We said PAEEK at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
80′PAEEK find the net on 80′. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
80′We said PAEEK at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' PAEEK 2–0 Polemidion
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' PAEEK win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
81′We said PAEEK at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′A goal for PAEEK on 83′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
84′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' PAEEK 3–0 Polemidion
90′PAEEK score on 90′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
90′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' PAEEK 4–0 Polemidion
FTFULL TIME PAEEK 4–0 Polemidion
FTPAEEK 4–0 Polemidion · PAEEK win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

PAEEK are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: PAEEK 49%, draw 25%, Polemidion 26%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on PAEEK v PolemidionBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

PAEEK win49%

Draw25%

Polemidion win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 4

VenueKyrenia - Epistrofi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

PAEEK

Polemidion

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	PAEEK	3	0	6
11	Polemidion	3	−3	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · paeek winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market77%

Us49%

~~Market~~77%

We make PAEEK a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are 28 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · PAEEK v Polemidion~~1.60 – 1.08

~~Form · 2. Division this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D0 L1 · W1 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 3~~5 v 11

~~The market · PAEEK win~~77% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · PAEEK win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 77% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
PAEEK win	49%	77%	−28
Draw	25%	16%	+9
Polemidion win	26%	7%	+19
Over 2.5 goals	49%	58%	−9
Both teams to score	51%	40%	+11
Over 1.5 goals	74%	78%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	28%	38%	−10
PAEEK or draw	74%	93%	−19
PAEEK clean sheet	35%	–	–
Polemidion clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 7.4 7.7 4.1 1 11.1 11.6 6.2 2.3 2 8.6 8.9 4.8 3 4.6 4.8 2.6 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+PAEEK down, Polemidion across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,181 2. Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

PAEEK at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Polemidion away: 0.00 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for PAEEK, 1.08 for Polemidion. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Division this season · since 12 Sept

PAEEK

LWW2–4 · 2–1 · 2–1

POLEMIDION

WLL1–0 · 0–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enosis	4	+5	10
2	Ethnikos Achna	3	+10	9
3	ASIL Lysi	4	+3	7
4	Doxa	3	+2	7
5	PAEEK	3	0	6
6	Ermis	3	+2	6
7	APEA	3	+1	5
8	Spartakos Kitiou	3	+2	4
9	Digenis Morphou	3	+1	4
10	Iraklis Yerolakkou	3	0	4
11	Polemidion	3	−3	3
12	Ayia Napa	3	−3	1
13	Halkanoras	3	−3	1
14	Akritas	3	−3	1
15	MEAP Nisou	3	−8	1
16	Anagennisi Deryneia	3	−6	0