MEAP Nisou v PAEEK prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

MEAP Nisou 0–2 PAEEK PAEEK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said PAEEK win~~56%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.292

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.196

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said PAEEK win at 56%.
2′Little has changed for our model: PAEEK 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 22–23–56
2′KICK-OFF MEAP Nisou v PAEEK
7′PAEEK find the net on 7′. 0–1. 0–1 · 8–14–78
7′We said PAEEK at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 0–1 · 8–14–78
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' MEAP Nisou 0–1 PAEEK
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' PAEEK win: 56% at kick-off, 78% now
17′A goal for PAEEK on 17′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–5–93
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' MEAP Nisou 0–2 PAEEK
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' PAEEK win: 56% at kick-off, 93% now
18′We said PAEEK at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 0–2 · 2–5–93
36′We said PAEEK at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
45′HALF-TIME MEAP Nisou 0–2 PAEEK
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' PAEEK win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
46′SECOND HALF MEAP Nisou 0–2 PAEEK
49′PENALTY MISSED · 49' MEAP Nisou
50′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–2 · 1–3–96
81′We said PAEEK at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME MEAP Nisou 0–2 PAEEK
FTMEAP Nisou 0–2 PAEEK · PAEEK win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

PAEEK are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: MEAP Nisou 22%, draw 23%, PAEEK 56%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on MEAP Nisou v PAEEKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

MEAP Nisou win22%

Draw23%

PAEEK win56%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

MEAP Nisou

PAEEK

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	PAEEK	4	+4	9
16	MEAP Nisou	4	−10	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · paeek winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

56% The market64%

Us56%

~~Market~~64%

We make PAEEK a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · MEAP Nisou v PAEEK~~1.02 – 1.86

~~Form · 2. Division this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D1 L3 · W3 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 9~~16 v 4

~~The market · PAEEK win~~64% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · PAEEK win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
MEAP Nisou win	22%	15%	+7
Draw	23%	21%	+2
PAEEK win	56%	64%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	54%	56%	−2
Both teams to score	52%	49%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	35%	−2
MEAP Nisou or draw	44%	36%	+8
MEAP Nisou clean sheet	17%	–	–
PAEEK clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 10.6%

0123450 6.3 10.6 9.3 5.8 2.9 1 6.2 10.5 9.0 5.5 2.7 2 3.2 5.4 4.6 2.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+MEAP Nisou down, PAEEK across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,189 2. Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 33 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

MEAP Nisou at home: 1.00 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). PAEEK away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for MEAP Nisou, 1.86 for PAEEK. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MEA 1–2 PAE · PAE 2–1 MEA · MEA 0–2 PAE · PAE 1–1 MEA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Division this season · since 12 Sept

MEAP NISOU

DLLL0–0 · 1–4 · 0–5 · 0–2

PAEEK

LWWW2–4 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ethnikos Achna	5	+11	12
2	Doxa	4	+5	10
3	Enosis	4	+5	10
4	PAEEK	4	+4	9
5	Ermis	4	+4	9
6	APEA	4	+2	8
7	ASIL Lysi	4	+3	7
8	Digenis Morphou	4	+1	5
9	Iraklis Yerolakkou	4	0	5
10	Spartakos Kitiou	4	+1	4
11	Anagennisi Deryneia	5	−7	3
12	Polemidion	4	−7	3
13	Halkanoras	4	−3	2
14	Akritas	4	−3	2
15	Ayia Napa	4	−6	1
16	MEAP Nisou	4	−10	1