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Iraklis Yerolakkou v Enosis

Iraklis Yerolakkou
0–1Full time
Enosis

2. Division · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38
Iraklis Yerolakkou 0–1 Enosis ENOSIS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Enosis win42%
The market said50%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.497
The market’s Brier score0.375

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 8 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Enosis win at 42%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Enosis was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 28–30–42
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Iraklis Yerolakkou v Enosis
  4. 14′Enosis score on 14′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–18–73
  5. 14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Iraklis Yerolakkou 0–1 Enosis
  6. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Enosis win: 42% at kick-off, 73% now
  7. 15′We published Enosis at 42%. Our model now makes it 73%. 0–1 · 8–18–73
  8. 21′15′: L. Narsingh on the scoresheet for Enosis, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 8–18–74
  9. 27′We published Enosis at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 7–18–75
  10. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 7–18–75
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Iraklis Yerolakkou 0–1 Enosis
  12. 46′SECOND HALF Iraklis Yerolakkou 0–1 Enosis
  13. 53′We published Enosis at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 4–17–80
  14. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Enosis win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
  15. 67′We published Enosis at 42%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
  16. 77′We published Enosis at 42%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
  17. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Enosis win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
  18. 84′We published Enosis at 42%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
  19. FTFULL TIME Iraklis Yerolakkou 0–1 Enosis
  20. FTIraklis Yerolakkou 0–1 Enosis · Enosis win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Enosis are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Iraklis Yerolakkou 28%, draw 30%, Enosis 42%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Iraklis Yerolakkou v EnosisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Iraklis Yerolakkou win28%
Draw30%
Enosis win42%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Iraklis Yerolakkou

Enosis

7Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

Last match: 16 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Enosis4+510
9Iraklis Yerolakkou405

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · enosis winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
42% The market50%
Us42%
Market50%

We make Enosis a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Iraklis Yerolakkou v Enosis0.89 – 1.18
Form · 2. Division this season · since 12 SeptW1 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L0
Table places · points 5 v 109 v 3
The market · Enosis win50% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 12:16
Our probability · Enosis win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Iraklis Yerolakkou win28%22%+6
Draw30%28%+2
Enosis win42%50%−8
Over 2.5 goals34%41%−7
Both teams to score39%45%−6
Over 1.5 goals60%65%−5
Over 3.5 goals16%22%−6
Iraklis Yerolakkou or draw58%50%+8
Iraklis Yerolakkou clean sheet32%––
Enosis clean sheet42%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.9%
0123450 13.5 14.9 8.7 3.6 1 11.3 12.4 7.2 2.9 2 5.1 5.6 3.2 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Iraklis Yerolakkou down, Enosis across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Division this season · since 12 Sept

IRAKLIS YEROLAKKOU

WDLD2–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–0

ENOSIS

WDWW3–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Ethnikos Achna5+1112
2Doxa4+510
3Enosis4+510
4PAEEK4+49
5Ermis4+49
6APEA4+28
7ASIL Lysi4+37
8Digenis Morphou4+15
9Iraklis Yerolakkou405
10Spartakos Kitiou4+14
11Anagennisi Deryneia5−73
12Polemidion4−73
13Halkanoras4−32
14Akritas4−32
15Ayia Napa4−61
16MEAP Nisou4−101

The competition's standings before kick-off.