Ermis v MEAP Nisou prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Ermis 2–0 MEAP Nisou ERMIS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ermis win~~44%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.469

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.288

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ermis win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ermis was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–25–31
1′KICK-OFF Ermis v MEAP Nisou
13′Ermis find the net on 13′. 1–0. 1–0 · 70–18–12
13′We published Ermis at 44%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–18–12
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Ermis 1–0 MEAP Nisou
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Ermis win: 44% at kick-off, 70% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Ermis win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
45′HALF-TIME Ermis 1–0 MEAP Nisou
46′SECOND HALF Ermis 1–0 MEAP Nisou
48′We published Ermis at 44%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
64′We published Ermis at 44%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Ermis win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
74′We published Ermis at 44%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
78′Ermis find the net on 13′. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–11–1
79′We published Ermis at 44%. Our model now makes it 89%. 1–0 · 89–11–1
81′We published Ermis at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Ermis win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
87′We published Ermis at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′A goal for Ermis on 89′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′We published Ermis at 44%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Ermis 2–0 MEAP Nisou
FTFULL TIME Ermis 2–0 MEAP Nisou
FTErmis 2–0 MEAP Nisou · Ermis win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ermis are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ermis 44%, draw 25%, MEAP Nisou 31%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Ermis v MEAP NisouBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ermis win44%

Draw25%

MEAP Nisou win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 4

VenueAmmochostos Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ermis

MEAP Nisou

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Ermis	3	+2	6
15	MEAP Nisou	3	−8	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ermis winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market56%

Us44%

~~Market~~56%

We make Ermis a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ermis v MEAP Nisou~~1.51 – 1.20

~~Form · 2. Division this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D0 L1 · W0 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 1~~6 v 15

~~The market · Ermis win~~56% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ermis win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ermis win	44%	56%	−12
Draw	25%	24%	+1
MEAP Nisou win	31%	20%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	50%	54%	−4
Both teams to score	52%	54%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	77%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	33%	−4
Ermis or draw	69%	80%	−11
Ermis clean sheet	32%	–	–
MEAP Nisou clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 7.5 8.4 4.9 2.1 1 10.4 11.5 6.7 2.8 2 7.5 8.3 4.9 2.0 3 3.9 4.3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ermis down, MEAP Nisou across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,181 2. Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ermis at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). MEAP Nisou away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Ermis, 1.20 for MEAP Nisou. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ERM 1–2 MEA · MEA 0–0 ERM · MEA 1–2 ERM · ERM 0–1 MEA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Division this season · since 11 Sept

ERMIS

WLW2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0

MEAP NISOU

DLL0–0 · 1–4 · 0–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enosis	4	+5	10
2	Ethnikos Achna	3	+10	9
3	ASIL Lysi	4	+3	7
4	Doxa	3	+2	7
5	PAEEK	3	0	6
6	Ermis	3	+2	6
7	APEA	3	+1	5
8	Spartakos Kitiou	3	+2	4
9	Digenis Morphou	3	+1	4
10	Iraklis Yerolakkou	3	0	4
11	Polemidion	3	−3	3
12	Ayia Napa	3	−3	1
13	Halkanoras	3	−3	1
14	Akritas	3	−3	1
15	MEAP Nisou	3	−8	1
16	Anagennisi Deryneia	3	−6	0