Ermis v Anagennisi Deryneia prediction · 2. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ErmisDrawAnagennisi Deryneia

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ermis 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ermis are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ermis 42%, draw 23%, Anagennisi Deryneia 35%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Ermis v Anagennisi DeryneiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Ermis win42%

Draw23%

Anagennisi Deryneia win35%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueAmmochostos Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ermis

Anagennisi Deryneia

6Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

Last match: 23 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Ermis	5	+2	9
14	Anagennisi Deryneia	5	−7	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ermis winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Ermis a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ermis v Anagennisi Deryneia~~1.70 – 1.51

~~Form · 2. Division this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D0 L2 · W1 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 3~~6 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ermis win

Published at 45%, 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ermis win	42%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Anagennisi Deryneia win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Ermis or draw	65%	–	–
Ermis clean sheet	24%	–	–
Anagennisi Deryneia clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.8 6.6 4.7 2.4 1 7.4 10.1 7.2 3.7 2 6.0 8.1 5.8 3.0 3 3.4 4.6 3.3 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ermis down, Anagennisi Deryneia across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,196 2. Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.38 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ermis at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Anagennisi Deryneia away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Ermis, 1.51 for Anagennisi Deryneia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.38

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ANA 3–3 ERM · ERM 0–1 ANA · ANA 2–2 ERM · ERM 2–3 ANA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Division this season · since 11 Sept

ERMIS

WLWWL2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–2

ANAGENNISI DERYNEIA

LLLWL0–3 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enosis	5	+6	13
2	Ethnikos Achna	5	+11	12
3	PAEEK	5	+6	12
4	Doxa	5	+5	11
5	APEA	5	+4	11
6	Ermis	5	+2	9
7	ASIL Lysi	5	+3	8
8	Iraklis Yerolakkou	5	−1	5
9	Digenis Morphou	5	0	5
10	Akritas	5	−1	5
11	Halkanoras	5	−2	5
12	Spartakos Kitiou	5	0	4
13	Ayia Napa	5	−5	4
14	Anagennisi Deryneia	5	−7	3
15	Polemidion	5	−9	3
16	MEAP Nisou	5	−12	1