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Enosis v ASIL Lysi

Enosis
2–1Full time
ASIL Lysi

2. Division · FRI 16 OCT · Paralimni Stadium

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 19:31
Enosis 2–1 ASIL Lysi ENOSIS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Enosis win53%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.330
The market’s Brier score0.421

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 16 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Enosis win at 53%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Enosis was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–23–23
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Enosis v ASIL Lysi
  4. 15′Enosis score on 15′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–15–8
  5. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Enosis 1–0 ASIL Lysi
  6. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Enosis win: 53% at kick-off, 77% now
  7. 16′We published Enosis at 53%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–15–7
  8. 31′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 78–16–6
  9. 41′ASIL Lysi find the net on 41′. 1–1. 1–1 · 44–35–21
  10. 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Enosis 1–1 ASIL Lysi
  11. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Enosis win: 53% at kick-off, 44% now
  12. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Enosis win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
  13. 45′ASIL Lysi level it on 40′ through M. Ogkmpoe. 1–1. 1–1 · 42–37–21
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Enosis 1–1 ASIL Lysi
  15. 46′SECOND HALF Enosis 1–1 ASIL Lysi
  16. 47′We said Enosis at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 1–1 · 41–38–21
  17. 51′We said Enosis at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–40–20
  18. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Enosis win 38%)
  19. 61′We said Enosis at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–48–18
  20. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Enosis win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
  21. 67′We said Enosis at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–54–16
  22. 73′We said Enosis at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–62–14
  23. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Enosis win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
  24. 78′We said Enosis at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–71–11
  25. 82′We said Enosis at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–79–8
  26. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Enosis win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
  27. 86′We said Enosis at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–5
  28. 91′A goal for Enosis on 90′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 97–3–0
  29. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90' Enosis 2–1 ASIL Lysi
  30. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Enosis win: 53% at kick-off, 97% now
  31. 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Enosis win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
  32. 92′We published Enosis at 53%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–1 · 98–2–0
  33. 92′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 98–2–0
  34. FTFULL TIME Enosis 2–1 ASIL Lysi
  35. FTEnosis 2–1 ASIL Lysi · Enosis win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Enosis are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Enosis 53%, draw 23%, ASIL Lysi 24%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Enosis v ASIL LysiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Enosis win53%
Draw23%
ASIL Lysi win24%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 4

VenueParalimni Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Enosis

ASIL Lysi

6Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2ASIL Lysi3+47
3Enosis3+47

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · enosis winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
53% The market47%
Us53%
Market47%

We make Enosis a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Enosis v ASIL Lysi1.78 – 1.07
Form · 2. Division this season · since 12 SeptW2 D1 L0 · W2 D1 L0
Table places · points 7 v 73 v 2
The market · Enosis win47% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 11 OCT 04:0216 OCT 16:25
Our probability · Enosis win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Enosis win53%47%+6
Draw23%28%−5
ASIL Lysi win24%25%−1
Over 2.5 goals53%46%+7
Both teams to score52%50%+2
Over 1.5 goals76%70%+6
Over 3.5 goals32%26%+6
Enosis or draw76%75%+1
Enosis clean sheet36%––
ASIL Lysi clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.7%
0123450 6.7 6.7 3.5 1 10.7 10.6 5.6 2.1 2 8.9 8.9 4.7 3 5.3 5.2 2.8 4 2.5 2.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Enosis down, ASIL Lysi across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting4.40
Over 2.55 of 5
Both scored5 of 5
Last meetingsENO 3–4 ASI · ASI 1–2 ENO · ASI 1–3 ENO · ENO 2–3 ASI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Division this season · since 12 Sept

ENOSIS

WDW3–0 · 0–0 · 2–1

ASIL LYSI

WDW3–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Ethnikos Achna3+109
2ASIL Lysi3+47
3Enosis3+47
4Doxa3+27
5PAEEK306
6Ermis3+26
7APEA3+15
8Spartakos Kitiou3+24
9Digenis Morphou3+14
10Iraklis Yerolakkou304
11Polemidion3−33
12Ayia Napa3−31
13Halkanoras3−31
14Akritas3−31
15MEAP Nisou3−81
16Anagennisi Deryneia3−60

The competition's standings before kick-off.