Doxa v Iraklis Yerolakkou prediction · 2. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

DoxaDrawIraklis Yerolakkou

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Doxa 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Doxa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Doxa 45%, draw 27%, Iraklis Yerolakkou 28%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Doxa v Iraklis YerolakkouBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Doxa win45%

Draw27%

Iraklis Yerolakkou win28%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueMakario Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Doxa

Iraklis Yerolakkou

6Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Doxa	5	+5	11
8	Iraklis Yerolakkou	5	−1	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · doxa winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Doxa a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Doxa v Iraklis Yerolakkou~~1.36 – 0.99

~~Form · 2. Division this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L0 · W1 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 5~~4 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Doxa win	45%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Iraklis Yerolakkou win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Doxa or draw	72%	–	–
Doxa clean sheet	38%	–	–
Iraklis Yerolakkou clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.0%

0123450 10.1 9.7 4.8 1 13.0 12.4 6.1 2.1 2 8.7 8.2 4.1 3 4.0 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Doxa down, Iraklis Yerolakkou across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,189 2. Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 33 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Doxa at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Iraklis Yerolakkou away: 0.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Doxa, 0.99 for Iraklis Yerolakkou. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~DOX 1–0 IRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Division this season · since 12 Sept

DOXA

DWWWD3–3 · 2–1 · 4–3 · 3–0 · 1–1

IRAKLIS YEROLAKKOU

WDLDL2–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enosis	5	+6	13
2	Ethnikos Achna	5	+11	12
3	PAEEK	5	+6	12
4	Doxa	5	+5	11
5	APEA	5	+4	11
6	Ermis	5	+2	9
7	ASIL Lysi	5	+3	8
8	Iraklis Yerolakkou	5	−1	5
9	Digenis Morphou	5	0	5
10	Akritas	5	−1	5
11	Halkanoras	5	−2	5
12	Spartakos Kitiou	5	0	4
13	Ayia Napa	5	−5	4
14	Anagennisi Deryneia	5	−7	3
15	Polemidion	5	−9	3
16	MEAP Nisou	5	−12	1