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Doxa v Ayia Napa

Doxa
3–0Full time
Ayia Napa

2. Division · SAT 17 OCT · Makario Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26
Doxa 3–0 Ayia Napa DOXA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Doxa win48%
The market said73%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.408
The market’s Brier score0.112

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Doxa win at 48%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Doxa 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–23–30
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Doxa v Ayia Napa
  4. 30′Doxa score on 29′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 72–18–10
  5. 30′We said Doxa at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–18–10
  6. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 72–18–10
  7. 30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Doxa 1–0 Ayia Napa
  8. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Doxa win: 48% at kick-off, 72% now
  9. 36′Doxa find the net on 36′. 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
  10. 36′We said Doxa at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
  11. 36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Doxa 2–0 Ayia Napa
  12. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Doxa win: 48% at kick-off, 91% now
  13. 40′Doxa ahead on 35′ through J. Jose. 2–0. 2–0 · 91–6–2
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Doxa 2–0 Ayia Napa
  15. 46′SECOND HALF Doxa 2–0 Ayia Napa
  16. 58′We said Doxa at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  17. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Doxa win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
  18. 82′Doxa ahead on 35′ through J. Jose. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  19. 82′We said Doxa at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  20. 84′We said Doxa at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  21. 93′A goal for Doxa on 90′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  22. 93′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  23. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Doxa 3–0 Ayia Napa
  24. FTFULL TIME Doxa 3–0 Ayia Napa
  25. FTDoxa 3–0 Ayia Napa · Doxa win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Doxa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Doxa 48%, draw 22%, Ayia Napa 30%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Doxa v Ayia NapaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Doxa win48%
Draw22%
Ayia Napa win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 4

VenueMakario Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Doxa

Ayia Napa

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Doxa3+27
12Ayia Napa3−31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · doxa winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
48% The market73%
Us48%
Market73%

We make Doxa a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 25 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Doxa v Ayia Napa1.86 – 1.41
Form · 2. Division this season · since 12 SeptW2 D1 L0 · W0 D1 L2
Table places · points 7 v 14 v 12
The market · Doxa win73% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%50%60%70%80% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 12:50
Our probability · Doxa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 73% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Doxa win48%73%−25
Draw22%19%+3
Ayia Napa win30%8%+22
Over 2.5 goals62%55%+7
Both teams to score61%41%+20
Over 1.5 goals82%76%+6
Over 3.5 goals40%34%+6
Doxa or draw70%92%−22
Doxa clean sheet26%––
Ayia Napa clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%
0123450 4.5 5.8 3.9 1 7.6 9.9 6.6 3.1 2 6.7 8.6 5.8 2.8 3 4.1 5.3 3.6 4 2.6 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Doxa down, Ayia Napa across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.52 of 6
Both scored3 of 6
Last meetingsDOX 0–3 AYI · AYI 1–2 DOX · DOX 1–1 AYI · DOX 0–1 AYI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Division this season · since 12 Sept

DOXA

DWW3–3 · 2–1 · 4–3

AYIA NAPA

LDL1–3 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Enosis4+510
2Ethnikos Achna3+109
3ASIL Lysi4+37
4Doxa3+27
5PAEEK306
6Ermis3+26
7APEA3+15
8Spartakos Kitiou3+24
9Digenis Morphou3+14
10Iraklis Yerolakkou304
11Polemidion3−33
12Ayia Napa3−31
13Halkanoras3−31
14Akritas3−31
15MEAP Nisou3−81
16Anagennisi Deryneia3−60

The competition's standings before kick-off.