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Doxa v Ayia Napa
Doxa
Ayia Napa2. Division · SAT 17 OCT · Makario Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Doxa win at 48%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Doxa 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–23–30
- 1′KICK-OFF Doxa v Ayia Napa
- 30′Doxa score on 29′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 72–18–10
- 30′We said Doxa at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–18–10
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 72–18–10
- 30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Doxa 1–0 Ayia Napa
- 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Doxa win: 48% at kick-off, 72% now
- 36′Doxa find the net on 36′. 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
- 36′We said Doxa at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
- 36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Doxa 2–0 Ayia Napa
- 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Doxa win: 48% at kick-off, 91% now
- 40′Doxa ahead on 35′ through J. Jose. 2–0. 2–0 · 91–6–2
- 45′HALF-TIME Doxa 2–0 Ayia Napa
- 46′SECOND HALF Doxa 2–0 Ayia Napa
- 58′We said Doxa at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Doxa win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
- 82′Doxa ahead on 35′ through J. Jose. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
- 82′We said Doxa at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
- 84′We said Doxa at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 93′A goal for Doxa on 90′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 93′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Doxa 3–0 Ayia Napa
- FTFULL TIME Doxa 3–0 Ayia Napa
- FTDoxa 3–0 Ayia Napa · Doxa win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassDoxa are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Doxa 48%, draw 22%, Ayia Napa 30%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 61%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Doxa win48%
Ayia Napa win30%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30
RoundMatchday 4
VenueMakario Stadium
Match timeline
All events
DoxaMIN
Ayia NapaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Doxa
Ayia Napa
Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)
Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Doxa a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 25 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.4.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 73% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Doxa win | 48% | 73% | −25 |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | +3 |
| Ayia Napa win | 30% | 8% | +22 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 55% | +7 |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 41% | +20 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 76% | +6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 34% | +6 |
| Doxa or draw | 70% | 92% | −22 |
| Doxa clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
| Ayia Napa clean sheet | 17% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
6 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · 2. Division this season · since 12 Sept
DOXA
AYIA NAPA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enosis | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 2 | Ethnikos Achna | 3 | +10 | 9 |
| 3 | ASIL Lysi | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | Doxa | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | PAEEK | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Ermis | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 7 | APEA | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 8 | Spartakos Kitiou | 3 | +2 | 4 |
| 9 | Digenis Morphou | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 10 | Iraklis Yerolakkou | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Polemidion | 3 | −3 | 3 |
| 12 | Ayia Napa | 3 | −3 | 1 |
| 13 | Halkanoras | 3 | −3 | 1 |
| 14 | Akritas | 3 | −3 | 1 |
| 15 | MEAP Nisou | 3 | −8 | 1 |
| 16 | Anagennisi Deryneia | 3 | −6 | 0 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Enosis
Ethnikos Achna
ASIL Lysi
PAEEK
Ermis
APEA
Spartakos Kitiou
Digenis Morphou
Iraklis Yerolakkou
Polemidion
Halkanoras
Akritas
MEAP Nisou
Anagennisi Deryneia