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Model 1.2

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Digenis Morphou v Halkanoras

Digenis Morphou
1–1Full time
Halkanoras

2. Division · SUN 18 OCT · Makario Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04
Digenis Morphou 1–1 Halkanoras DIGENIS MORPHOU WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Digenis Morphou win42%
The market said44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.880
The market’s Brier score0.815

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 13 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Digenis Morphou win at 42%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Digenis Morphou v Halkanoras
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Digenis Morphou was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–24–34
  4. 45′HALF-TIME Digenis Morphou 0–0 Halkanoras
  5. 46′SECOND HALF Digenis Morphou 0–0 Halkanoras
  6. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Digenis Morphou win 33%)
  7. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Digenis Morphou win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
  8. 55′We expected about 3.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 31–42–26
  9. 57′We said Digenis Morphou at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–44–26
  10. 60′We said Digenis Morphou at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–46–25
  11. 69′We said Digenis Morphou at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–56–20
  12. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Digenis Morphou win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
  13. 75′We said Digenis Morphou at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–64–17
  14. 77′A goal for Halkanoras on 77′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 2–15–83
  15. 77′We said Digenis Morphou at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–1 · 2–15–83
  16. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Digenis Morphou 0–1 Halkanoras
  17. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Digenis Morphou win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
  18. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Halkanoras win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
  19. 86′Digenis Morphou score on 85′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 8–85–7
  20. 86′We said Digenis Morphou at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–85–7
  21. 86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Digenis Morphou 1–1 Halkanoras
  22. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Digenis Morphou win: 42% at kick-off, 8% now
  23. 86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Halkanoras win 7%)
  24. FTFULL TIME Digenis Morphou 1–1 Halkanoras
  25. FTDigenis Morphou 1–1 Halkanoras · Digenis Morphou win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Digenis Morphou are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Digenis Morphou 42%, draw 24%, Halkanoras 34%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Digenis Morphou v HalkanorasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Digenis Morphou win42%
Draw24%
Halkanoras win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 4

VenueMakario Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Digenis Morphou

Halkanoras

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
10Digenis Morphou3+14
14Halkanoras3−31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · digenis morphou winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
42% The market44%
Us42%
Market44%

We make Digenis Morphou a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Digenis Morphou v Halkanoras1.62 – 1.42
Form · 2. Division this season · since 12 SeptW1 D1 L1 · W0 D1 L2
Table places · points 4 v 110 v 14
The market · Digenis Morphou win44% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 12 OCT 04:0118 OCT 13:14
Our probability · Digenis Morphou win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Digenis Morphou win42%44%−2
Draw24%27%−3
Halkanoras win34%29%+5
Over 2.5 goals58%54%+4
Both teams to score59%57%+2
Over 1.5 goals80%76%+4
Over 3.5 goals36%33%+3
Digenis Morphou or draw66%71%−5
Digenis Morphou clean sheet25%––
Halkanoras clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%
0123450 5.2 7.1 4.9 2.4 1 8.1 10.7 7.4 3.6 2 6.3 8.5 5.9 2.8 3 3.5 4.6 3.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Digenis Morphou down, Halkanoras across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.43
Over 2.56 of 7
Both scored6 of 7
Last meetingsDIG 0–0 HAL · HAL 2–2 DIG · DIG 3–2 HAL · HAL 3–2 DIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Division this season · since 12 Sept

DIGENIS MORPHOU

DLW0–0 · 0–1 · 3–1

HALKANORAS

LDL0–2 · 0–0 · 3–4

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Doxa4+510
2Enosis4+510
3Ethnikos Achna4+99
4PAEEK4+49
5Ermis4+49
6APEA4+28
7ASIL Lysi4+37
8Iraklis Yerolakkou405
9Spartakos Kitiou4+14
10Digenis Morphou3+14
11Anagennisi Deryneia4−53
12Polemidion4−73
13Akritas4−32
14Halkanoras3−31
15Ayia Napa4−61
16MEAP Nisou4−101

The competition's standings before kick-off.