Ayia Napa v Digenis Morphou prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Ayia Napa 2–1 Digenis Morphou DIGENIS MORPHOU WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Digenis Morphou win~~41%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.653

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.809

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Digenis Morphou win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Digenis Morphou was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 35–24–41
1′KICK-OFF Ayia Napa v Digenis Morphou
23′Ayia Napa find the net on 23′. 1–0. 1–0 · 62–22–16
23′We said Digenis Morphou at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 1–0 · 62–22–16
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Ayia Napa 1–0 Digenis Morphou
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Digenis Morphou win: 41% at kick-off, 16% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Ayia Napa win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Digenis Morphou win 38%)
26′A goal for Digenis Morphou on 25′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 33–30–38
26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Ayia Napa 1–1 Digenis Morphou
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Digenis Morphou win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Digenis Morphou win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Ayia Napa win 62%)
34′G. Neto scores for Digenis Morphou on 26′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 31–32–36
45′HALF-TIME Ayia Napa 1–1 Digenis Morphou
46′SECOND HALF Ayia Napa 1–1 Digenis Morphou
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Digenis Morphou win 35%)
49′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–1 · 28–39–33
51′Ayia Napa score on 51′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 68–23–9
51′We said Digenis Morphou at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 68–23–9
51′That is 3, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 68–23–9
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Ayia Napa 2–1 Digenis Morphou
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Digenis Morphou win: 41% at kick-off, 9% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Ayia Napa win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 40%)
68′We said Digenis Morphou at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 76–20–4
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Digenis Morphou win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
FTFULL TIME Ayia Napa 2–1 Digenis Morphou
FTAyia Napa 2–1 Digenis Morphou · Digenis Morphou win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Digenis Morphou are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ayia Napa 35%, draw 24%, Digenis Morphou 41%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Ayia Napa v Digenis MorphouBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ayia Napa win35%

Draw24%

Digenis Morphou win41%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ayia Napa

Digenis Morphou

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

Last match: 18 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Digenis Morphou	4	+1	5
15	Ayia Napa	4	−6	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · digenis morphou winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

41% The market45%

Us41%

~~Market~~45%

We make Digenis Morphou a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ayia Napa v Digenis Morphou~~1.42 – 1.57

~~Form · 2. Division this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 5~~15 v 8

~~The market · Digenis Morphou win~~45% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Digenis Morphou win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ayia Napa win	35%	27%	+8
Draw	24%	28%	−4
Digenis Morphou win	41%	45%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	56%	46%	+10
Both teams to score	58%	51%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	79%	70%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	35%	26%	+9
Ayia Napa or draw	59%	55%	+4
Ayia Napa clean sheet	22%	–	–
Digenis Morphou clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.5 8.2 6.3 3.3 1 7.4 10.9 8.3 4.4 2 5.1 7.6 5.8 3.0 3 2.5 3.6 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ayia Napa down, Digenis Morphou across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,189 2. Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 33 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ayia Napa at home: 2.17 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Digenis Morphou away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Ayia Napa, 1.57 for Digenis Morphou. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~DIG 1–2 AYI · DIG 2–1 AYI · DIG 0–1 AYI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Division this season · since 12 Sept

AYIA NAPA

LDLL1–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–3

DIGENIS MORPHOU

DLWD0–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ethnikos Achna	5	+11	12
2	Doxa	4	+5	10
3	Enosis	4	+5	10
4	PAEEK	4	+4	9
5	Ermis	4	+4	9
6	APEA	4	+2	8
7	ASIL Lysi	4	+3	7
8	Digenis Morphou	4	+1	5
9	Iraklis Yerolakkou	4	0	5
10	Spartakos Kitiou	4	+1	4
11	Anagennisi Deryneia	5	−7	3
12	Polemidion	4	−7	3
13	Halkanoras	4	−3	2
14	Akritas	4	−3	2
15	Ayia Napa	4	−6	1
16	MEAP Nisou	4	−10	1