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ASIL Lysi v Iraklis Yerolakkou

ASIL Lysi

2–0Full time

Iraklis Yerolakkou

2. Division · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:06

ASIL Lysi 2–0 Iraklis Yerolakkou ASIL LYSI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ASIL Lysi win~~36%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.609

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.299

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said ASIL Lysi win at 36%.
1′KICK-OFF ASIL Lysi v Iraklis Yerolakkou
2′Little has changed for our model: ASIL Lysi 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–28–36
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was ASIL Lysi win 30%)
45′HALF-TIME ASIL Lysi 0–0 Iraklis Yerolakkou
46′SECOND HALF ASIL Lysi 0–0 Iraklis Yerolakkou
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' ASIL Lysi 1–0 Iraklis Yerolakkou
61′ASIL Lysi ahead on 48′ through J. Bela. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–19–4
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' ASIL Lysi win: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' ASIL Lysi win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 19%)
81′We said ASIL Lysi at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' ASIL Lysi win: 36% at kick-off, 90% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' ASIL Lysi 2–0 Iraklis Yerolakkou
FTFULL TIME ASIL Lysi 2–0 Iraklis Yerolakkou
FTASIL Lysi 2–0 Iraklis Yerolakkou · ASIL Lysi win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

ASIL Lysi win36%

Draw27%

Iraklis Yerolakkou win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · asil lysi winPublished 10 Oct 13:47

36% The market55%

Us36%

~~Market~~55%

We make ASIL Lysi a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 19 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · asil lysi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ASIL Lysi win	36%	55%	−19
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Iraklis Yerolakkou win	36%	20%	+17
Over 2.5 goals	43%	47%	−4
Both teams to score	48%	48%	0
Over 1.5 goals	69%	70%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	23%	26%	−4
ASIL Lysi or draw	64%	80%	−17
ASIL Lysi clean sheet	31%	–	–
Iraklis Yerolakkou clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 9.5 11.0 6.5 2.7 1 11.0 12.5 7.4 3.1 2 6.5 7.4 4.4 3 2.7 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ASIL Lysi down, Iraklis Yerolakkou across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,172 2. Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ASIL Lysi at home: 1.33 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Iraklis Yerolakkou away: 0.50 scored, 0.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for ASIL Lysi, 1.21 for Iraklis Yerolakkou. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~IRA 1–1 ASI

Form · last six in 2. Division

ASIL LYSI

DLWLWD5–5 · 2–6 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 3–1 · 1–1

IRAKLIS YEROLAKKOU

WLLDWD4–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ethnikos Achna	2	+5	6
2	Enosis	2	+3	4
3	ASIL Lysi	2	+2	4
4	Iraklis Yerolakkou	2	+2	4
5	Doxa	2	+1	4
6	APEA	2	+1	4
7	Spartakos Kitiou	2	+2	3
8	Ermis	2	+1	3
9	PAEEK	2	−1	3
10	Polemidion	2	−2	3
11	Digenis Morphou	2	−1	1
12	Ayia Napa	2	−2	1
13	Akritas	2	−2	1
14	Halkanoras	2	−2	1
15	MEAP Nisou	2	−3	1
16	Anagennisi Deryneia	2	−4	0