ASIL Lysi v Doxa prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

ASIL Lysi 1–1 Doxa DOXA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Doxa win~~41%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.884

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.781

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Doxa win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Doxa 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 35–23–41
1′KICK-OFF ASIL Lysi v Doxa
45′HALF-TIME ASIL Lysi 0–0 Doxa
46′SECOND HALF ASIL Lysi 0–0 Doxa
49′ASIL Lysi score on 49′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 67–23–11
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Doxa win 35%)
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' ASIL Lysi 1–0 Doxa
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Doxa win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' ASIL Lysi win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 38%)
50′We said Doxa at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–0 · 67–23–10
52′50′: J. Bela on the scoresheet for ASIL Lysi, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 68–22–10
53′We said Doxa at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
69′We said Doxa at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–19–4
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Doxa win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
84′Doxa find the net on 84′. 1–1. 1–1 · 9–82–9
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' ASIL Lysi 1–1 Doxa
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Doxa win: 41% at kick-off, 9% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 82% (was ASIL Lysi win 91%)
FTFULL TIME ASIL Lysi 1–1 Doxa
FTASIL Lysi 1–1 Doxa · Doxa win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Doxa are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ASIL Lysi 35%, draw 23%, Doxa 41%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on ASIL Lysi v DoxaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

ASIL Lysi win35%

Draw23%

Doxa win41%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ASIL Lysi

Doxa

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Doxa	4	+5	10
7	ASIL Lysi	4	+3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · doxa winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

41% The market32%

Us41%

~~Market~~32%

We make Doxa a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ASIL Lysi v Doxa~~1.50 – 1.65

~~Form · 2. Division this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 10~~7 v 2

~~The market · Doxa win~~32% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Doxa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ASIL Lysi win	35%	40%	−5
Draw	23%	28%	−5
Doxa win	41%	32%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	60%	48%	+12
Both teams to score	61%	53%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	81%	71%	+10
Over 3.5 goals	38%	28%	+10
ASIL Lysi or draw	59%	68%	−9
ASIL Lysi clean sheet	21%	–	–
Doxa clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.9 7.5 5.9 3.2 1 6.8 10.4 8.2 4.5 2 4.9 7.5 5.9 3.3 3 2.5 3.8 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ASIL Lysi down, Doxa across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,189 2. Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 33 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ASIL Lysi at home: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Doxa away: 2.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for ASIL Lysi, 1.65 for Doxa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~DOX 1–0 ASI · ASI 2–0 DOX · ASI 1–2 DOX · ASI 0–0 DOX

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Division this season · since 12 Sept

ASIL LYSI

WDWL3–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–2

DOXA

DWWW3–3 · 2–1 · 4–3 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ethnikos Achna	5	+11	12
2	Doxa	4	+5	10
3	Enosis	4	+5	10
4	PAEEK	4	+4	9
5	Ermis	4	+4	9
6	APEA	4	+2	8
7	ASIL Lysi	4	+3	7
8	Digenis Morphou	4	+1	5
9	Iraklis Yerolakkou	4	0	5
10	Spartakos Kitiou	4	+1	4
11	Anagennisi Deryneia	5	−7	3
12	Polemidion	4	−7	3
13	Halkanoras	4	−3	2
14	Akritas	4	−3	2
15	Ayia Napa	4	−6	1
16	MEAP Nisou	4	−10	1