APEA v Ermis prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

APEA 2–0 Ermis APEA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said APEA win~~48%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.405

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.502

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said APEA win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: APEA was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–26
1′KICK-OFF APEA v Ermis
22′A goal for APEA on 22′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–8
22′We published APEA at 48%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' APEA 1–0 Ermis
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' APEA win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 75–17–7
45′HALF-TIME APEA 1–0 Ermis
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' APEA win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
46′SECOND HALF APEA 1–0 Ermis
55′We published APEA at 48%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
70′We published APEA at 48%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' APEA win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
79′We published APEA at 48%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
85′APEA score on 85′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' APEA 2–0 Ermis
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' APEA win: 48% at kick-off, over 99% now
86′We published APEA at 48%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME APEA 2–0 Ermis
FTAPEA 2–0 Ermis · APEA win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

APEA are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: APEA 48%, draw 26%, Ermis 26%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on APEA v ErmisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

APEA win48%

Draw26%

Ermis win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

APEA

Ermis

3Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · Cup (Cyprus)

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Ermis	4	+4	9
6	APEA	4	+2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · apea winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

48% The market42%

Us48%

~~Market~~42%

We make APEA a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · APEA v Ermis~~1.52 – 1.03

~~Form · 2. Division this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D2 L0 · W3 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 9~~6 v 5

~~The market · APEA win~~42% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · APEA win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
APEA win	48%	42%	+6
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Ermis win	26%	30%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	46%	45%	+1
Both teams to score	48%	51%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	71%	69%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	26%	0
APEA or draw	74%	70%	+4
APEA clean sheet	37%	–	–
Ermis clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.1%

0123450 8.6 8.4 4.3 1 12.1 11.6 6.0 2.2 2 8.8 8.5 4.4 3 4.6 4.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+APEA down, Ermis across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,189 2. Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 33 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

APEA at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ermis away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for APEA, 1.03 for Ermis. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ERM 0–2 APE · APE 1–3 ERM · ERM 1–2 APE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Division this season · since 11 Sept

APEA

DWDW3–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

ERMIS

WLWW2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ethnikos Achna	5	+11	12
2	Doxa	4	+5	10
3	Enosis	4	+5	10
4	PAEEK	4	+4	9
5	Ermis	4	+4	9
6	APEA	4	+2	8
7	ASIL Lysi	4	+3	7
8	Digenis Morphou	4	+1	5
9	Iraklis Yerolakkou	4	0	5
10	Spartakos Kitiou	4	+1	4
11	Anagennisi Deryneia	5	−7	3
12	Polemidion	4	−7	3
13	Halkanoras	4	−3	2
14	Akritas	4	−3	2
15	Ayia Napa	4	−6	1
16	MEAP Nisou	4	−10	1