Anagennisi Deryneia v Ethnikos Achna prediction · 2. Division

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 19:31

Anagennisi Deryneia 1–3 Ethnikos Achna ETHNIKOS ACHNA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ethnikos Achna win~~64%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.189

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.284

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ethnikos Achna win at 64%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ethnikos Achna 64% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 19–17–64
1′KICK-OFF Anagennisi Deryneia v Ethnikos Achna
29′Ethnikos Achna find the net on 29′. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–13–81
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Anagennisi Deryneia 0–1 Ethnikos Achna
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Ethnikos Achna win: 64% at kick-off, 81% now
30′We said Ethnikos Achna at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 0–1 · 6–13–81
31′The goal count is tracking the 4.0 we expected. 0–1 · 6–13–81
39′A goal for Ethnikos Achna on 39′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–94
39′We said Ethnikos Achna at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 0–2 · 1–4–94
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Anagennisi Deryneia 0–2 Ethnikos Achna
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Ethnikos Achna win: 64% at kick-off, 94% now
40′We said Ethnikos Achna at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
42′Anagennisi Deryneia score on 41′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 5–13–81
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Anagennisi Deryneia 1–2 Ethnikos Achna
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Ethnikos Achna win: 64% at kick-off, 81% now
45′HALF-TIME Anagennisi Deryneia 1–2 Ethnikos Achna
46′SECOND HALF Anagennisi Deryneia 1–2 Ethnikos Achna
48′Ethnikos Achna find the net on 45′. 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–95
48′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Anagennisi Deryneia 1–3 Ethnikos Achna
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+3' Ethnikos Achna win: 64% at kick-off, 95% now
49′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45+4' Ethnikos Achna
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+4' Ethnikos Achna win: 64% at kick-off, 82% now
67′We said Ethnikos Achna at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
76′Ethnikos Achna find the net on 75′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Anagennisi Deryneia 1–3 Ethnikos Achna
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Ethnikos Achna win: 64% at kick-off, 99% now
82′We said Ethnikos Achna at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Anagennisi Deryneia 1–3 Ethnikos Achna
FTAnagennisi Deryneia 1–3 Ethnikos Achna · Ethnikos Achna win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ethnikos Achna are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Anagennisi Deryneia 19%, draw 17%, Ethnikos Achna 64%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Anagennisi Deryneia v Ethnikos AchnaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Anagennisi Deryneia win19%

Draw17%

Ethnikos Achna win64%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Anagennisi Deryneia

Ethnikos Achna

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Ethnikos Achna	4	+9	9
11	Anagennisi Deryneia	4	−5	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ethnikos achna winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 04:13 · locked at kick-off

64% The market57%

Us64%

~~Market~~57%

We make Ethnikos Achna a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–2.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Anagennisi Deryneia v Ethnikos Achna~~1.24 – 2.80

~~Form · 2. Division this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D0 L3 · W3 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 9~~11 v 3

~~The market · Ethnikos Achna win~~57% · ours 64%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ethnikos Achna win The market, margin stripped

Published at 70%, 64% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Anagennisi Deryneia win	19%	21%	−2
Draw	17%	22%	−5
Ethnikos Achna win	64%	57%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	72%	61%	+11
Both teams to score	62%	59%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	88%	80%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	53%	41%	+12
Anagennisi Deryneia or draw	36%	43%	−7
Anagennisi Deryneia clean sheet	10%	–	–
Ethnikos Achna clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.7%

0123450 2.9 5.9 6.7 5.4 3.8 2.41 3.4 7.2 7.7 6.0 4.0 2.52 2.2 4.5 4.8 3.6 2.4 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Anagennisi Deryneia down, Ethnikos Achna across0–5 goals a side shown (88.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,188 2. Division matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.1% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Anagennisi Deryneia at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ethnikos Achna away: 2.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Anagennisi Deryneia, 2.80 for Ethnikos Achna. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ETH 2–0 ANA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Division this season · since 12 Sept

ANAGENNISI DERYNEIA

LLLW0–3 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 3–2

ETHNIKOS ACHNA

WWWL4–2 · 3–0 · 5–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Doxa	4	+5	10
2	Enosis	4	+5	10
3	Ethnikos Achna	4	+9	9
4	PAEEK	4	+4	9
5	Ermis	4	+4	9
6	APEA	4	+2	8
7	ASIL Lysi	4	+3	7
8	Digenis Morphou	4	+1	5
9	Iraklis Yerolakkou	4	0	5
10	Spartakos Kitiou	4	+1	4
11	Anagennisi Deryneia	4	−5	3
12	Polemidion	4	−7	3
13	Halkanoras	4	−3	2
14	Akritas	4	−3	2
15	Ayia Napa	4	−6	1
16	MEAP Nisou	4	−10	1