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Akritas v Iraklis Yerolakkou

Akritas
0–0Full time
Iraklis Yerolakkou

2. Division · SAT 17 OCT · Stelios Kyriakides Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26
Akritas 0–0 Iraklis Yerolakkou AKRITAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Akritas win42%
The market said61%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.757
The market’s Brier score0.986

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 8 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Akritas win at 42%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Akritas 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–30–29
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Akritas v Iraklis Yerolakkou
  4. 34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Akritas win 35%)
  5. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Akritas win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Akritas 0–0 Iraklis Yerolakkou
  7. 46′SECOND HALF Akritas 0–0 Iraklis Yerolakkou
  8. 49′We said Akritas at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–48–22
  9. 51′We said Akritas at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–49–22
  10. 62′We said Akritas at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–58–18
  11. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Akritas win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
  12. 70′We said Akritas at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–66–15
  13. 77′We said Akritas at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–75–11
  14. 79′We said Akritas at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–0 · 12–79–9
  15. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Akritas win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
  16. 82′We said Akritas at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
  17. 89′We said Akritas at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–3
  18. FTFULL TIME Akritas 0–0 Iraklis Yerolakkou
  19. FTAkritas 0–0 Iraklis Yerolakkou · Akritas win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Akritas are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Akritas 42%, draw 29%, Iraklis Yerolakkou 29%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Akritas v Iraklis YerolakkouBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Akritas win42%
Draw29%
Iraklis Yerolakkou win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 4

VenueStelios Kyriakides Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Akritas

Iraklis Yerolakkou

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Division (Cyprus)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
10Iraklis Yerolakkou304
14Akritas3−31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · akritas winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
42% The market61%
Us42%
Market61%

We make Akritas a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 19 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Akritas v Iraklis Yerolakkou1.19 – 0.93
Form · 2. Division this season · since 11 SeptW0 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L1
Table places · points 1 v 414 v 10
The market · Akritas win61% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%50%60%70% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 12:50
Our probability · Akritas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Akritas win42%61%−19
Draw29%23%+6
Iraklis Yerolakkou win29%15%+14
Over 2.5 goals35%51%−16
Both teams to score41%49%−8
Over 1.5 goals62%74%−12
Over 3.5 goals17%31%−14
Akritas or draw71%85%−14
Akritas clean sheet40%––
Iraklis Yerolakkou clean sheet32%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.3%
0123450 12.8 11.3 5.3 1 14.3 12.6 5.9 2 8.4 7.4 3.5 3 3.4 3.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Akritas down, Iraklis Yerolakkou across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 2. Division this season · since 11 Sept

AKRITAS

LDL0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

IRAKLIS YEROLAKKOU

WDL2–0 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Enosis4+510
2Ethnikos Achna3+109
3ASIL Lysi4+37
4Doxa3+27
5PAEEK306
6Ermis3+26
7APEA3+15
8Spartakos Kitiou3+24
9Digenis Morphou3+14
10Iraklis Yerolakkou304
11Polemidion3−33
12Ayia Napa3−31
13Halkanoras3−31
14Akritas3−31
15MEAP Nisou3−81
16Anagennisi Deryneia3−60

The competition's standings before kick-off.