Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › 1. Division › Pafos v Apoel Nicosia

Back
Cyprus flag

Pafos v Apoel Nicosia

Pafos
0–0Full time
Apoel Nicosia

1. Division · MON 19 OCT · Stelios Kyriakides Stadium

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 18:30
Pafos 0–0 Apoel Nicosia PAFOS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Pafos win51%
The market said49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.887
The market’s Brier score0.836

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Pafos win at 51%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Pafos v Apoel Nicosia
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Pafos was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–24
  4. 7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Pafos
  5. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Pafos win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
  6. 45′SECOND HALF Pafos 0–0 Apoel Nicosia
  7. 46′We said Pafos at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–39–22
  8. 46′HALF-TIME Pafos 0–0 Apoel Nicosia
  9. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Apoel Nicosia · On: Georgios·Angelopoulos · Off: Álvaro Carrillo
  10. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Pafos · On: Domingos Quina · Off: Vlad Dragomir
  11. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Apoel Nicosia · On: Daniel Mancini · Off: Dimitris Limnios
  12. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Pafos · On: Alexandre Brito · Off: Gonçalo Rosa Gonçalves Pereira Rodrigues
  13. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Pafos win 39%)
  14. 55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 35–45–20
  15. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Apoel Nicosia
  16. 57′We said Pafos at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–19
  17. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Pafos win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
  18. 65′We said Pafos at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–54–17
  19. 71′We said Pafos at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–61–15
  20. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Apoel Nicosia · On: Stavros Georgiou · Off: Marquinhos
  21. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Pafos
  22. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Pafos win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
  23. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Pafos
  24. 77′We said Pafos at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–70–11
  25. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Pafos · On: Anderson Silva · Off: Leanderson da Silva Genésio
  26. 81′We said Pafos at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–9
  27. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Apoel Nicosia · On: Stylianos Vrontis · Off: Anastasios Bakasetas
  28. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Pafos win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
  29. 85′We said Pafos at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
  30. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Pafos · On: afonso patrao · Off: Pêpê
  31. 91′We said Pafos at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
  32. 96′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Apoel Nicosia · On: Filip Đuričić · Off: Fabricio Pedrozo
  33. FTFULL TIME Pafos 0–0 Apoel Nicosia
  34. FTPafos 0–0 Apoel Nicosia · Pafos win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pafos are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pafos 51%, draw 25%, Apoel Nicosia 24%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Pafos v Apoel NicosiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Pafos win51%
Draw25%
Apoel Nicosia win24%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueStelios Kyriakides Stadium

RefereeChrysovalantis Theouli

Line-ups

Pafos

Apoel Nicosia

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pafos

Apoel Nicosia

4Days since last match9

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Pafos5+410
8Apoel Nicosia5+47

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Pafos

Formation not confirmed

99 R. Majecki

26 I. Šunjić

12 K. Sema

88 Pêpê Rodrigues

3 S. Mmaee

18 Lelê

14 N. Ioannou

6 Guga

30 V. Dragomir

77 João Correia

20 Biel

Coach · Ricardo Sá Pinto

Substitutes

50 · Alexandre Miguel Soares Carvalho Brito

33 · Anderson Silva

7 · Bruno Felipe

60 · Christos Evzonas

72 · K. Ioannou

42 · G. Michael

23 · Jonatás Noro

71 · M. Papastylianou

17 · afonso patrao

82 · P. Petrou

8 · Domingos Quina

2 · Yoram\t Zague

Apoel Nicosia

Formation not confirmed

9 A. Bakasetas

72 A. Barák

16 Álvaro Carrillo

8 Dálcio

34 K. Laifis

18 D. Limnios

10 Marquinhos

15 F. Pedrozo

25 Joan Sastre

3 K. Stafylidis

27 V. Belec

Coach · N. Papadopoulos

Substitutes

1 · O. Zelenika

6 · S. Vrontis

21 · K. Poursaitidis

99 · F. Pérez

7 · D. Mancini

70 · S. Georgiou

14 · Ángel García

11 · Gabriel Maioli

31 · F. Đuričić

5 · M. Degenek

4 · G. Angelopoulos

32 · I. Avramidis

Our number · pafos winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off
51% The market49%
Us51%
Market49%

We make Pafos a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Pafos v Apoel Nicosia1.64 – 1.05
Form · 1. Division this season · since 29 AugW3 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L2
Table places · points 10 v 75 v 8
The market · Pafos win49% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 13 OCT 05:3419 OCT 15:37
Our probability · Pafos win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Pafos win51%49%+2
Draw25%27%−2
Apoel Nicosia win24%25%−1
Over 2.5 goals50%50%0
Both teams to score52%53%−1
Over 1.5 goals75%73%+2
Over 3.5 goals29%29%0
Pafos or draw76%75%+1
Pafos clean sheet35%––
Apoel Nicosia clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%
0123450 7.1 7.2 3.8 1 11.1 11.6 6.0 2.1 2 9.1 9.3 4.9 3 5.0 5.1 2.7 4 2.1 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Pafos down, Apoel Nicosia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.20
Over 2.52 of 10
Both scored4 of 10
Last meetingsPAF 2–0 APO · APO 3–3 PAF · PAF 2–0 APO · APO 0–1 PAF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1. Division this season · since 29 Aug

PAFOS

WDWLW3–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 3–1

APOEL NICOSIA

LWLDW1–3 · 6–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1AEL6+215
2AEK Larnaca6+613
3Apollon Limassol6+612
4Omonia Nicosia5+911
5Pafos5+410
6Aris6−19
7Omonia 29is Maiou6+28
8Apoel Nicosia5+47
9Omonia Aradippou6−26
10Olympiakos5−14
11Nea Salamis6−44
12Krasava Ypsonas6−93
13Anorthosis6−93
14Karmiotissa6−73

The competition's standings before kick-off.