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Pafos v Apoel Nicosia
Pafos
Apoel Nicosia1. Division · MON 19 OCT · Stelios Kyriakides Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Pafos win at 51%.
- 1′KICK-OFF Pafos v Apoel Nicosia
- 2′Much as we predicted: Pafos was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–24
- 7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Pafos
- 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Pafos win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
- 45′SECOND HALF Pafos 0–0 Apoel Nicosia
- 46′We said Pafos at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–39–22
- 46′HALF-TIME Pafos 0–0 Apoel Nicosia
- 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Apoel Nicosia · On: Georgios·Angelopoulos · Off: Álvaro Carrillo
- 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Pafos · On: Domingos Quina · Off: Vlad Dragomir
- 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Apoel Nicosia · On: Daniel Mancini · Off: Dimitris Limnios
- 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Pafos · On: Alexandre Brito · Off: Gonçalo Rosa Gonçalves Pereira Rodrigues
- 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Pafos win 39%)
- 55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 35–45–20
- 56′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Apoel Nicosia
- 57′We said Pafos at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–19
- 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Pafos win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
- 65′We said Pafos at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–54–17
- 71′We said Pafos at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–61–15
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Apoel Nicosia · On: Stavros Georgiou · Off: Marquinhos
- 73′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Pafos
- 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Pafos win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
- 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Pafos
- 77′We said Pafos at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–70–11
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Pafos · On: Anderson Silva · Off: Leanderson da Silva Genésio
- 81′We said Pafos at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–9
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Apoel Nicosia · On: Stylianos Vrontis · Off: Anastasios Bakasetas
- 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Pafos win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
- 85′We said Pafos at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Pafos · On: afonso patrao · Off: Pêpê
- 91′We said Pafos at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
- 96′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Apoel Nicosia · On: Filip Đuričić · Off: Fabricio Pedrozo
- FTFULL TIME Pafos 0–0 Apoel Nicosia
- FTPafos 0–0 Apoel Nicosia · Pafos win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Pafos are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Pafos 51%, draw 25%, Apoel Nicosia 24%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off
Pafos win51%
Apoel Nicosia win24%Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 16:00
RoundMatchday 6
VenueStelios Kyriakides Stadium
RefereeChrysovalantis Theouli
Match timeline
All events
PafosMIN
Apoel NicosiaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Pafos
Apoel Nicosia
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Pafos
Apoel Nicosia
Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League
Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Pafos
Formation not confirmed
99 R. Majecki
26 I. Šunjić
12 K. Sema
88 Pêpê Rodrigues
3 S. Mmaee
18 Lelê
14 N. Ioannou
6 Guga
30 V. Dragomir
77 João Correia
20 Biel
Coach · Ricardo Sá Pinto
Substitutes
50 · Alexandre Miguel Soares Carvalho Brito
33 · Anderson Silva
7 · Bruno Felipe
60 · Christos Evzonas
72 · K. Ioannou
42 · G. Michael
23 · Jonatás Noro
71 · M. Papastylianou
17 · afonso patrao
82 · P. Petrou
8 · Domingos Quina
2 · Yoram\t Zague
Apoel Nicosia
Formation not confirmed
9 A. Bakasetas
72 A. Barák
16 Álvaro Carrillo
8 Dálcio
34 K. Laifis
18 D. Limnios
10 Marquinhos
15 F. Pedrozo
25 Joan Sastre
3 K. Stafylidis
27 V. Belec
Coach · N. Papadopoulos
Substitutes
1 · O. Zelenika
6 · S. Vrontis
21 · K. Poursaitidis
99 · F. Pérez
7 · D. Mancini
70 · S. Georgiou
14 · Ángel García
11 · Gabriel Maioli
31 · F. Đuričić
5 · M. Degenek
4 · G. Angelopoulos
32 · I. Avramidis
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Pafos
Formation not confirmed
99 R. Majecki
26 I. Šunjić
12 K. Sema
88 Pêpê Rodrigues
3 S. Mmaee
18 Lelê
14 N. Ioannou
6 Guga
30 V. Dragomir
77 João Correia
20 Biel
Coach · Ricardo Sá Pinto
Substitutes
50 · Alexandre Miguel Soares Carvalho Brito
33 · Anderson Silva
7 · Bruno Felipe
60 · Christos Evzonas
72 · K. Ioannou
42 · G. Michael
23 · Jonatás Noro
71 · M. Papastylianou
17 · afonso patrao
82 · P. Petrou
8 · Domingos Quina
2 · Yoram\t Zague
Apoel Nicosia
Formation not confirmed
9 A. Bakasetas
72 A. Barák
16 Álvaro Carrillo
8 Dálcio
34 K. Laifis
18 D. Limnios
10 Marquinhos
15 F. Pedrozo
25 Joan Sastre
3 K. Stafylidis
27 V. Belec
Coach · N. Papadopoulos
Substitutes
1 · O. Zelenika
6 · S. Vrontis
21 · K. Poursaitidis
99 · F. Pérez
7 · D. Mancini
70 · S. Georgiou
14 · Ángel García
11 · Gabriel Maioli
31 · F. Đuričić
5 · M. Degenek
4 · G. Angelopoulos
32 · I. Avramidis
We make Pafos a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pafos win | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | −2 |
| Apoel Nicosia win | 24% | 25% | −1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 29% | 0 |
| Pafos or draw | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Pafos clean sheet | 35% | – | – |
| Apoel Nicosia clean sheet | 20% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · 1. Division this season · since 29 Aug
PAFOS
APOEL NICOSIA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEL | 6 | +2 | 15 |
| 2 | AEK Larnaca | 6 | +6 | 13 |
| 3 | Apollon Limassol | 6 | +6 | 12 |
| 4 | Omonia Nicosia | 5 | +9 | 11 |
| 5 | Pafos | 5 | +4 | 10 |
| 6 | Aris | 6 | −1 | 9 |
| 7 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 8 | Apoel Nicosia | 5 | +4 | 7 |
| 9 | Omonia Aradippou | 6 | −2 | 6 |
| 10 | Olympiakos | 5 | −1 | 4 |
| 11 | Nea Salamis | 6 | −4 | 4 |
| 12 | Krasava Ypsonas | 6 | −9 | 3 |
| 13 | Anorthosis | 6 | −9 | 3 |
| 14 | Karmiotissa | 6 | −7 | 3 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
AEL
AEK Larnaca
Apollon Limassol
Omonia Nicosia
Aris
Omonia 29is Maiou
Omonia Aradippou
Olympiakos
Nea Salamis
Krasava Ypsonas
Anorthosis
Karmiotissa