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Omonia Nicosia v Olympiakos

Omonia Nicosia

2–2Full time

Olympiakos

1. Division · MON 19 OCT · GSP Stadium

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:00

Omonia Nicosia 2–2 Olympiakos OMONIA NICOSIA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Omonia Nicosia win~~79%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.364

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.250

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 42 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Omonia Nicosia win at 79%.
1′KICK-OFF Omonia Nicosia v Olympiakos
2′Little has changed for our model: Omonia Nicosia 79% before kick-off, 78% now. 0–0 · 78–14–8
5′🟨 YELLOW · 4' Olympiakos
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Omonia Nicosia win: 79% at kick-off, 69% now
31′We said Omonia Nicosia at 79%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 0–1 · 41–28–31
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Omonia Nicosia 0–1 Olympiakos
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Omonia Nicosia win: 79% at kick-off, 41% now
32′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 0–1 · 41–28–31
34′We said Omonia Nicosia at 79%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–1 · 39–28–32
34′We said Omonia Nicosia at 79%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–2 · 18–21–61
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Omonia Nicosia win: 79% at kick-off, 39% now
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Omonia Nicosia 0–2 Olympiakos
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Omonia Nicosia win: 79% at kick-off, 18% now
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Olympiakos win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Omonia Nicosia win 39%)
35′A goal for Olympiakos on 32′. 0–2 · 18–21–61
36′Olympiakos find the net on 35′. 0–2. 0–2 · 17–21–62
37′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Olympiakos
42′We said Omonia Nicosia at 79%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–2 · 14–20–66
45′We said Omonia Nicosia at 79%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 1–2 · 31–31–38
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Omonia Nicosia 1–2 Olympiakos
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Omonia Nicosia win: 79% at kick-off, 31% now
45′SECOND HALF Omonia Nicosia 1–2 Olympiakos
47′A goal for Omonia Nicosia on 45′. 1–3 · 11–18–70
47′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 11–18–70
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Omonia Nicosia 1–3 Olympiakos
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Omonia Nicosia win: 79% at kick-off, 11% now
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Omonia Nicosia · On: Lubomír Šatka · Off: Stefan Simić
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Omonia Nicosia 2–2 Olympiakos
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Omonia Nicosia win: 79% at kick-off, 60% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Omonia Nicosia win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Olympiakos win 40%)
50′GOAL DISALLOWED · 50' Olympiakos
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Omonia Nicosia win: 79% at kick-off, 27% now
50′HALF-TIME Omonia Nicosia 1–2 Olympiakos
50′🟨 YELLOW · 45+6' Olympiakos
53′GOAL DISALLOWED · 53' Omonia Nicosia
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Omonia Nicosia win: 79% at kick-off, 25% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Olympiakos win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Omonia Nicosia win 57%)
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Omonia Nicosia win: 79% at kick-off, 19% now
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Omonia Nicosia
72′We said Omonia Nicosia at 79%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–28–63
72′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Omonia Nicosia · On: Loïc Nego · Off: Senou Coulibaly
72′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Omonia Nicosia · On: Mateo Marić · Off: Luuk Brouwers
72′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Olympiakos · On: Constantinos christou · Off: Bruno Paz
72′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Olympiakos · On: marios pechlivanis · Off: Zannetos Savva
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Omonia Nicosia win: 79% at kick-off, 9% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Omonia Nicosia · On: Mihlali Mayambela · Off: Jaden Sean Montnor
73′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Omonia Nicosia · On: Muamer Tanković · Off: Florin Tănase
79′We said Omonia Nicosia at 79%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–22–74
92′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Olympiakos · On: Alexandros Lolis · Off: Dominik Prokop
93′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Olympiakos · On: Agapios Vrikkis · Off: Jean Felipe
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Olympiakos
96′PENALTY MISSED · 90+5' Omonia Nicosia
101′⚽ GOAL · 90+11' Omonia Nicosia 2–2 Olympiakos
101′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+11' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Olympiakos win 97%)
FTFULL TIME Omonia Nicosia 2–2 Olympiakos
FTOmonia Nicosia 2–2 Olympiakos · Omonia Nicosia win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Omonia Nicosia are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Omonia Nicosia 79%, draw 14%, Olympiakos 7%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Omonia Nicosia v OlympiakosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Omonia Nicosia win79%

Draw14%

Olympiakos win7%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueGSP Stadium

RefereePanagiotis Hadjigeorghiou

Line-ups

Omonia Nicosia

Olympiakos

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Omonia Nicosia

Olympiakos

4Days since last match8

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 11 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Omonia Nicosia	5	+9	11
10	Olympiakos	5	−1	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Omonia Nicosia

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Kaminski

27 S. Simič

93 J. Duverne

5 S. Coulibaly

29 J. Balkovec

17 F. Tănase

11 Ewandro

20 L. Brouwers

74 P. Andreou

7 J. Montnor

99 L. Diony

Coach · H. Berg

Substitutes

40 · Fabiano

82 · A. Christou

9 · A. Kakoullis

14 · M. Marić

21 · M. Mayambela

78 · Pantelis Michail

77 · L. Négo

85 · A. Neophytou

28 · M. Odubajo

37 · Ľ. Šatka

22 · M. Tankovic

44 · G. Viktoros

Olympiakos

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Talichmanidis

24 M. Tamás

8 Bruno Paz

5 Eduardo Kunde

12 Jean Felipe

55 Henrique Gomes

2 C. Frantzis

80 Miguel Esteves Sancho Pedro

10 D. Prokop

9 Zannetos Savva

26 P. Kynigopoulos

Coach · G. Kostis

Substitutes

4 · A. Doumas

14 · Konstantinos Elia

3 · Michalis Foulias

29 · K. Irakleous

31 · georgios kitsios

32 · M. Kyriakou

11 · A. Lolis

23 · M. Pechlivanis

22 · Marios Praxitelous Al Herek

20 · georgios tziortzis

77 · A. Vrikkis

21 · Constantinos christou

Our number · omonia nicosia winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

79% The market74%

Us79%

~~Market~~74%

We make Omonia Nicosia a 79% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Omonia Nicosia v Olympiakos~~2.66 – 0.65

~~Form · 1. Division this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D2 L0 · W0 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 4~~4 v 10

~~The market · Omonia Nicosia win~~74% · ours 79%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Omonia Nicosia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Omonia Nicosia win	79%	74%	+5
Draw	14%	17%	−3
Olympiakos win	7%	9%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	63%	61%	+2
Both teams to score	44%	46%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	83%	81%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	42%	40%	+2
Omonia Nicosia or draw	93%	91%	+2
Omonia Nicosia clean sheet	53%	–	–
Olympiakos clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.6%

0123450 4.1 2.6 1 10.0 6.5 2.2 2 12.6 8.1 2.7 3 10.9 6.9 2.3 4 7.4 4.6 5 4.1 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Omonia Nicosia down, Olympiakos across0–5 goals a side shown (93.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,247 1. Division matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.0% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Omonia Nicosia at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Olympiakos away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.66 goals for Omonia Nicosia, 0.65 for Olympiakos. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 19 Oct 16:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~1 of 8

~~Last meetings~~OMO 5–0 OLY · OLY 0–3 OMO · OLY 0–1 OMO · OMO 4–0 OLY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1. Division this season · since 28 Aug

OMONIA NICOSIA

DWDWW0–0 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 3–0

OLYMPIAKOS

DDDDL3–3 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AEL	6	+2	15
2	AEK Larnaca	6	+6	13
3	Apollon Limassol	6	+6	12
4	Omonia Nicosia	5	+9	11
5	Pafos	5	+4	10
6	Aris	6	−1	9
7	Omonia 29is Maiou	6	+2	8
8	Apoel Nicosia	5	+4	7
9	Omonia Aradippou	6	−2	6
10	Olympiakos	5	−1	4
11	Nea Salamis	6	−4	4
12	Krasava Ypsonas	6	−9	3
13	Anorthosis	6	−9	3
14	Karmiotissa	6	−7	3