Omonia Nicosia v AEL prediction · 1. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Omonia NicosiaDrawAEL

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Omonia Nicosia 76%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Omonia Nicosia are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Omonia Nicosia 76%, draw 15%, AEL 9%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Omonia Nicosia v AELBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Omonia Nicosia win76%

Draw15%

AEL win9%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueGSP Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Omonia Nicosia

AEL

9Days since last match13

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · omonia nicosia winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

76% The market–

Us76%

We make Omonia Nicosia a 76% chance to win. The model expects 2.7–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Omonia Nicosia v AEL~~2.69 – 0.78

~~Form · 1. Division this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 15~~3 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Omonia Nicosia win	76%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
AEL win	9%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Omonia Nicosia or draw	91%	–	–
Omonia Nicosia clean sheet	46%	–	–
AEL clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.1%

0123450 3.6 2.6 1 8.5 6.8 2.7 2 11.1 8.5 3.4 3 9.7 7.4 2.9 4 6.6 5.0 5 3.7 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Omonia Nicosia down, AEL across0–5 goals a side shown (93.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,251 1. Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.4% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Omonia Nicosia at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). AEL away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.69 goals for Omonia Nicosia, 0.78 for AEL. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~OMO 1–1 AEL · AEL 0–2 OMO · OMO 5–0 AEL · OMO 3–0 AEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1. Division this season · since 30 Aug

OMONIA NICOSIA

DWDWWD0–0 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 3–0 · 2–2

AEL

WLWWWW2–0 · 0–6 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AEL	6	+2	15
2	AEK Larnaca	6	+6	13
3	Omonia Nicosia	6	+9	12
4	Apollon Limassol	6	+6	12
5	Pafos	6	+4	11
6	Aris	6	−1	9
7	Apoel Nicosia	6	+4	8
8	Omonia 29is Maiou	6	+2	8
9	Anorthosis	7	−7	6
10	Olympiakos	7	−1	6
11	Omonia Aradippou	7	−4	6
12	Nea Salamis	6	−4	4
13	Krasava Ypsonas	7	−9	4
14	Karmiotissa	6	−7	3