Omonia Aradippou v AEL prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Omonia Aradippou 0–2 AEL OMONIA ARADIPPOU WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Omonia Aradippou win~~38%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.650

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.596

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Omonia Aradippou win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Omonia Aradippou 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–34
1′KICK-OFF Omonia Aradippou v AEL
16′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Omonia Aradippou
20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Omonia Aradippou
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Omonia Aradippou win 32%)
44′🟨 YELLOW · 39' AEL
45′HALF-TIME Omonia Aradippou 0–0 AEL
46′SECOND HALF Omonia Aradippou 0–0 AEL
47′We said Omonia Aradippou at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–21–7
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Omonia Aradippou 1–0 AEL
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Omonia Aradippou win: 38% at kick-off, 73% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Omonia Aradippou win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 21%)
48′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 73–21–7
50′A goal for Omonia Aradippou on 47′. 0–0 · 29–45–26
50′GOAL DISALLOWED · 50' Omonia Aradippou
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Omonia Aradippou win: 38% at kick-off, 29% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Omonia Aradippou win 29%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Omonia Aradippou win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
56′We said Omonia Aradippou at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–49–24
61′We said Omonia Aradippou at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–53–22
62′We said Omonia Aradippou at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–19–76
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Omonia Aradippou 0–1 AEL
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Omonia Aradippou win: 38% at kick-off, 4% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' AEL win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Omonia Aradippou 0–2 AEL
64′A goal for AEL on 62′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 4–19–77
64′GOAL DISALLOWED · 64' AEL
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Omonia Aradippou 0–2 AEL
67′AEL score on 63′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Omonia Aradippou · On: michalis koumouris · Off: Giorgos Pontikos
78′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Omonia Aradippou · On: curtis makosso · Off: Achraf bouchataoui el
78′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Omonia Aradippou · On: evripidou evripidou · Off: Niko Havelka
78′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Omonia Aradippou · On: gonzalez mathias · Off: Unai García
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' AEL · On: Sergio Conceicao · Off: Tavares jair
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' AEL · On: Ivan Milosavljevic · Off: Chinedu Geoffrey
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' AEL · On: Danil Paroutis · Off: Luther Singh
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' AEL · On: François Régis Mughe · Off: Stevan Jovetić
91′🟨 YELLOW · 86' AEL
93′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Omonia Aradippou · On: Sebastián Lomónaco · Off: Jeremy van Mullem
FTFULL TIME Omonia Aradippou 0–2 AEL
FTOmonia Aradippou 0–2 AEL · Omonia Aradippou win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Omonia Aradippou just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Omonia Aradippou 38%, draw 28%, AEL 34%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Omonia Aradippou v AELBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Omonia Aradippou win38%

Draw28%

AEL win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueAradippou Stadium

RefereeChristou Konstantinos

Line-ups

Omonia Aradippou

AEL

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Omonia Aradippou

AEL

6Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)

Last match: 11 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	AEL	5	0	12
8	Omonia Aradippou	5	0	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Omonia Aradippou

Formation not confirmed

12 Ž. Živković

14 J. van Mullem

9 G. Pontikos

23 Bogdan Petrovic

20 Jairo Izquierdo

6 N. Havelka

15 Unai García

8 A. El Bouchataoui

81 V. De Marco

34 Danny Agostinho Henriques

22 M. Antoniou

Coach · G. Okkas

Substitutes

3 · A. Christofi

10 · J. Schmidt

38 · A. Plumain

88 · G. Papacharalampous

91 · K. Panteli

41 · Mathias Gonzalez

77 · C. Makosso

27 · S. Lomónaco

7 · M. Koumouris

93 · G. Hadzigianni

1 · Gabriel Pereira

21 · evripidou evripidou

AEL

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Kapino

6 D. Zdravkovski

80 Jair Tavares

11 L. Singh

23 Diogo Gomes

30 G. Papageorgiou

10 R. Oudin

22 K. Neofytou

9 S. Jovetić

99 G. Chinedu

33 E. Antoniou

Coach · Hugo Martins

Substitutes

35 · Sérgio Conceição

75 · Simonas Christofi

17 · D. Paroutis

77 · F. Mughe

19 · I. Milosavljević

74 · Samy Merzouk

98 · P. Kyriakou

70 · kyriacos kyriacou

2 · A. Karo

4 · S. Denswil

Our number · omonia aradippou winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market35%

Us38%

~~Market~~35%

We make Omonia Aradippou a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Omonia Aradippou v AEL~~1.23 – 1.16

~~Form · 1. Division this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D3 L1 · W4 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 12~~8 v 3

~~The market · Omonia Aradippou win~~35% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Omonia Aradippou win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Omonia Aradippou win	38%	35%	+3
Draw	28%	28%	0
AEL win	34%	37%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	43%	50%	−7
Both teams to score	48%	56%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	69%	74%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	22%	29%	−7
Omonia Aradippou or draw	66%	63%	+3
Omonia Aradippou clean sheet	32%	–	–
AEL clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.5 10.5 6.2 2.4 1 11.2 12.9 7.4 2.9 2 6.9 7.8 4.5 3 2.9 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Omonia Aradippou down, AEL across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,244 1. Division matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.3% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Omonia Aradippou at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). AEL away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Omonia Aradippou, 1.16 for AEL. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 15:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~OMO 0–3 AEL · AEL 1–2 OMO · OMO 1–3 AEL · OMO 1–2 AEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1. Division this season · since 30 Aug

OMONIA ARADIPPOU

DWDDL0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

AEL

WLWWW2–0 · 0–6 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Apollon Limassol	6	+6	12
2	AEK Larnaca	5	+6	12
3	AEL	5	0	12
4	Omonia Nicosia	5	+9	11
5	Pafos	5	+4	10
6	Aris	5	−1	8
7	Apoel Nicosia	5	+4	7
8	Omonia Aradippou	5	0	6
9	Omonia 29is Maiou	5	+1	5
10	Olympiakos	5	−1	4
11	Nea Salamis	6	−4	4
12	Krasava Ypsonas	6	−9	3
13	Anorthosis	5	−8	3
14	Karmiotissa	6	−7	3