Omonia 29is Maiou v Anorthosis prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31

Omonia 29is Maiou 1–0 Anorthosis ANORTHOSIS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Anorthosis win~~44%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.735

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.931

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Anorthosis win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Anorthosis was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 31–25–44
1′KICK-OFF Omonia 29is Maiou v Anorthosis
2′We published Anorthosis at 44%. Our model now makes it 69%. 0–1 · 13–18–69
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Omonia 29is Maiou 0–1 Anorthosis
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Anorthosis win: 44% at kick-off, 69% now
4′Anorthosis find the net on 2′. 0–0 · 31–26–43
4′GOAL DISALLOWED · 4' Anorthosis
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Anorthosis win: 44% at kick-off, 43% now
11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Omonia 29is Maiou
16′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Stylianos Panteli · Omonia 29is Maiou
27′SUBSTITUTION · 22' Omonia 29is Maiou · On: Anestis Vlachomitros · Off: panyiotis zachariou
37′We said Anorthosis at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–24–14
37′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 63–24–14
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Omonia 29is Maiou 1–0 Anorthosis
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Anorthosis win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Omonia 29is Maiou win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Anorthosis win 14%)
39′Omonia 29is Maiou find the net on 37′. 1–0. 1–0 · 63–24–13
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Omonia 29is Maiou 1–1 Anorthosis
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Anorthosis win: 44% at kick-off, 35% now
45′HALF-TIME Omonia 29is Maiou 1–0 Anorthosis
46′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45+1' Anorthosis
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Anorthosis win: 44% at kick-off, 11% now
46′SECOND HALF Omonia 29is Maiou 1–0 Anorthosis
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Omonia 29is Maiou · On: Charalambos aristotelous · Off: Stylianos Panteli
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Anorthosis · On: Tamás Kiss · Off: Andreas Chrysostomou
51′We said Anorthosis at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–23–9
68′We said Anorthosis at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Anorthosis win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Omonia 29is Maiou · On: Luis·Santos · Off: Steve Brahim Joshep Omar Ambri
70′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Omonia 29is Maiou · On: Domen Črnigoj · Off: Matej Senić
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Anorthosis · On: stephanos charalambous · Off: Rafael Lopes
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Anorthosis · On: simranjit thandi · Off: Konstantinos Sergiou
78′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Omonia 29is Maiou
81′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Nemanja Tošić · Anorthosis
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Omonia 29is Maiou · On: Henry Bates Andreou · Off: Sotiris Fiakas
91′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Anorthosis · On: dimitrianos tzouliou · Off: Stijn Middendorp
91′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Anorthosis · On: Fabio Elian Sosa Vivaldi · Off: Alessio Da Cruz
FTFULL TIME Omonia 29is Maiou 1–0 Anorthosis
FTOmonia 29is Maiou 1–0 Anorthosis · Anorthosis win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Anorthosis are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Omonia 29is Maiou 31%, draw 25%, Anorthosis 44%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Omonia 29is Maiou v AnorthosisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Omonia 29is Maiou win31%

Draw25%

Anorthosis win44%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueMakario Stadium

RefereeKonstantinos Fotiou

Line-ups

Omonia 29is Maiou

Anorthosis

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Omonia 29is Maiou

Anorthosis

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Omonia 29is Maiou	5	+1	5
13	Anorthosis	5	−8	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Omonia 29is Maiou

Formation not confirmed

98 F. Uzoho

17 panyiotis zachariou

11 Fergus Tierney

30 M. Senić

19 A. Portales

16 Constantinos Pattichis

15 S. Panteli

22 K. Nwakali

4 A. Kaiafas

20 S. Fiakas

45 Steve Ambri

Coach · N. Tutiç

Substitutes

26 · A. Marios

27 · A. Vlachomitros

5 · S. Tsoukalas

46 · M. Sotiriou

10 · Mike Morais

43 · Antonis Mavrantonis

1 · Nikos Grammatikakis

14 · H. Andreou

8 · C. Aristotelous

89 · D. Črnigoj

77 · Luís Santos

7 · R. Fernandes

Anorthosis

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Panayi

44 N. Tošić

22 K. Sergiou

21 Rafael Lopes

36 Stijn Middendorp

5 Kiko

45 Gabriel Furtado

9 Alessio Da Cruz

88 A. Chrysostomou

4 K. Artymatas

20 C. Aboagye

Coach · Nestor El Maestro

Substitutes

50 · D. Juliou

57 · E. Charalambous

18 · stephanos charalambous

2 · S. Thandi

32 · E. Sosa

51 · S. Panagi

7 · T. Kiss

28 · J. Karlstrøm

47 · A. Karamanolis

70 · M. Ilia

11 · B. Dione

65 · Sabrawi Ali

Our number · anorthosis winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market52%

Us44%

~~Market~~52%

We make Anorthosis a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Omonia 29is Maiou v Anorthosis~~1.22 – 1.52

~~Form · 1. Division this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D2 L2 · W1 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 5 v 3~~9 v 13

~~The market · Anorthosis win~~52% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Anorthosis win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Omonia 29is Maiou win	31%	23%	+8
Draw	25%	25%	0
Anorthosis win	44%	52%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	51%	52%	−1
Both teams to score	54%	54%	0
Over 1.5 goals	75%	76%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	31%	−1
Omonia 29is Maiou or draw	56%	48%	+8
Omonia 29is Maiou clean sheet	23%	–	–
Anorthosis clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.9 9.8 7.4 3.8 1 7.9 11.8 8.7 4.4 2 4.9 7.1 5.3 2.7 3 2.1 3.0 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Omonia 29is Maiou down, Anorthosis across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,244 1. Division matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.3% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Omonia 29is Maiou at home: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Anorthosis away: 0.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Omonia 29is Maiou, 1.52 for Anorthosis. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ANO 4–2 OMO · OMO 0–0 ANO · ANO 2–0 OMO · OMO 0–2 ANO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1. Division this season · since 28 Aug

OMONIA 29IS MAIOU

WDDLL3–0 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 1–2

ANORTHOSIS

LLWLL0–2 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Apollon Limassol	6	+6	12
2	AEK Larnaca	5	+6	12
3	AEL	5	0	12
4	Omonia Nicosia	5	+9	11
5	Pafos	5	+4	10
6	Aris	5	−1	8
7	Apoel Nicosia	5	+4	7
8	Omonia Aradippou	5	0	6
9	Omonia 29is Maiou	5	+1	5
10	Olympiakos	5	−1	4
11	Nea Salamis	6	−4	4
12	Krasava Ypsonas	6	−9	3
13	Anorthosis	5	−8	3
14	Karmiotissa	6	−7	3