Olympiakos v Krasava Ypsonas prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Olympiakos 1–1 Krasava Ypsonas OLYMPIAKOS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Olympiakos win~~46%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.825

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.851

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Olympiakos win at 46%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Olympiakos 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–27
2′KICK-OFF Olympiakos v Krasava Ypsonas
18′PENALTY MISSED · 16' Krasava Ypsonas
27′We said Olympiakos at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–18–8
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Olympiakos 1–0 Krasava Ypsonas
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Olympiakos win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
31′We said Olympiakos at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–7
33′Olympiakos find the net on 27′. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–18–7
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Olympiakos win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
45′Tabekou Ouambé scores for Krasava Ypsonas on 44′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 36–41–23
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Olympiakos 1–1 Krasava Ypsonas
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Olympiakos win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Olympiakos win 77%)
45′HALF-TIME Olympiakos 1–1 Krasava Ypsonas
45′SUBSTITUTION · 30' Krasava Ypsonas · On: Lysandros Andreas Papastylianou · Off: Kevin Luckassen
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Ioannis Kiakos · Krasava Ypsonas
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Olympiakos win: 46% at kick-off, 35% now
46′SECOND HALF Olympiakos 1–1 Krasava Ypsonas
49′We said Olympiakos at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–43–23
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Krasava Ypsonas · On: Diby Keita · Off: Rubén Pardo
54′SUBSTITUTION · 50' Olympiakos · On: Constantinos christou · Off: Bruno Paz
60′We said Olympiakos at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–51–20
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Olympiakos · On: marios pechlivanis · Off: Alexandros Lolis
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Olympiakos win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
67′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Bismark Boateng · Krasava Ypsonas
68′We said Olympiakos at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–59–17
69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Krasava Ypsonas · On: panagiotis angeli · Off: Vasilios Papafotis
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Krasava Ypsonas · On: Xavier Quintilla · Off: Ioannis Kiakos
69′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Yassine Bahassa · Krasava Ypsonas
74′We said Olympiakos at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–67–13
75′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Olympiakos
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Olympiakos · On: Agapios Vrikkis · Off: Dominik Prokop
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Olympiakos · On: Alexandros Doumas · Off: Eduardo Kunde
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Olympiakos win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
79′We said Olympiakos at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–75–10
84′We said Olympiakos at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Olympiakos win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
89′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Krasava Ypsonas · On: Nikolaos Dosis · Off: Bismark Boateng
91′We said Olympiakos at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Olympiakos 1–1 Krasava Ypsonas
FTOlympiakos 1–1 Krasava Ypsonas · Olympiakos win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Olympiakos are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Olympiakos 46%, draw 27%, Krasava Ypsonas 28%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Olympiakos v Krasava YpsonasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Olympiakos win46%

Draw27%

Krasava Ypsonas win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueGSP Stadium

RefereeMarios Christoforou

Line-ups

Olympiakos

Krasava Ypsonas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Olympiakos

Krasava Ypsonas

5Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Olympiakos	6	−1	5
12	Krasava Ypsonas	6	−9	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Olympiakos

Formation not confirmed

2 C. Frantzis

55 Henrique Gomes

24 M. Tamás

9 Zannetos Savva

10 D. Prokop

8 Bruno Paz

11 A. Lolis

26 P. Kynigopoulos

5 Eduardo Kunde

12 Jean Felipe

1 C. Talichmanidis

Coach · G. Kostis

Substitutes

21 · Constantinos christou

4 · A. Doumas

14 · Konstantinos Elia

3 · Michalis Foulias

29 · K. Irakleous

31 · georgios kitsios

32 · M. Kyriakou

23 · M. Pechlivanis

22 · Marios Praxitelous Al Herek

20 · georgios tziortzis

77 · A. Vrikkis

Krasava Ypsonas

Formation not confirmed

5 Kristopher Da Graca

25 A. Christodoulou

28 Yassine Bahassa

19 N. Boateng

42 K. Luckassen

12 Andreas Georgiou

30 F. Katelaris

77 G. Kiakos

10 V. Papafotis

14 Rubén Pardo

13 Tabekou Ouambé

Coach · Marios Neophytou

Substitutes

20 · A. Athanasiou

33 · K. Venizelou

75 · Y. Avramenko

9 · E. Budnik

8 · N. Dosis

21 · D. Keita

18 · D. Melnichenko

11 · M. Panagidis

17 · L. Papastylianou

6 · Xavi Quintillà

93 · A. Richter

22 · P. Angeli

Our number · olympiakos winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

46% The market49%

Us46%

~~Market~~49%

We make Olympiakos a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Olympiakos v Krasava Ypsonas~~1.45 – 1.05

~~Form · 1. Division this season · since 28 Aug~~W0 D5 L1 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 5 v 3~~10 v 12

~~The market · Olympiakos win~~49% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Olympiakos win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olympiakos win	46%	49%	−3
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Krasava Ypsonas win	28%	25%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	45%	53%	−8
Both teams to score	49%	56%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	71%	75%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	24%	32%	−8
Olympiakos or draw	72%	75%	−3
Olympiakos clean sheet	35%	–	–
Krasava Ypsonas clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.7 8.6 4.6 1 11.8 12.4 6.4 2.3 2 8.5 8.7 4.6 3 4.2 4.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Olympiakos down, Krasava Ypsonas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,249 1. Division matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.89 goals a meeting; 2 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Olympiakos at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Krasava Ypsonas away: 1.17 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Olympiakos, 1.05 for Krasava Ypsonas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.89

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~KRA 1–0 OLY · KRA 1–0 OLY · OLY 1–1 KRA · OLY 1–1 KRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1. Division this season · since 28 Aug

OLYMPIAKOS

DDDDLD3–3 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–2

KRASAVA YPSONAS

LLLLLW0–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AEL	6	+2	15
2	AEK Larnaca	6	+6	13
3	Omonia Nicosia	6	+9	12
4	Apollon Limassol	6	+6	12
5	Pafos	6	+4	11
6	Aris	6	−1	9
7	Apoel Nicosia	6	+4	8
8	Omonia 29is Maiou	6	+2	8
9	Omonia Aradippou	6	−2	6
10	Olympiakos	6	−1	5
11	Nea Salamis	6	−4	4
12	Krasava Ypsonas	6	−9	3
13	Anorthosis	6	−9	3
14	Karmiotissa	6	−7	3