Olympiakos v Aris prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Olympiakos 1–2 Aris ARIS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aris win~~53%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.337

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.381

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aris win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Aris 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 23–24–53
2′Little has changed for our model: Aris 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 23–25–53
39′A goal for Aris on 40′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 5–16–79
40′A goal for Aris on 40′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 5–16–79
42′We said Aris at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 0–1 · 5–16–79
44′We said Aris at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 0–1 · 5–16–79
45′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 4–16–79
46′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 4–16–79
49′We said Aris at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 4–16–80
51′We said Aris at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 4–16–80
68′We said Aris at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
75′We said Aris at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 1–1 · 12–67–21
79′75′ and it is 1–1: Zannetos Savva on the scoresheet for Olympiakos. 1–1 · 10–74–17
81′75′ and it is 1–1: Zannetos Savva on the scoresheet for Olympiakos. 1–1 · 8–78–14
85′Aris are down to ten from 80′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 5–87–8
88′We said Aris at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 2–1 · 96–4–0
91′Olympiakos ahead on 88′ through Zannetos Savva. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–0–100
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Olympiakos win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Aris win 0%)
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Aris win: 53% at kick-off, 100% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Aris win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Olympiakos win 0%)
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Aris win: 53% at kick-off, 0% now
92′⚽ GOAL · 91' Olympiakos 1–2 Aris
92′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Olympiakos
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Aris win: 53% at kick-off, 100% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Aris win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Olympiakos win 0%)
94′Aris find the net on 90′. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–0–100
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' Aris win: 53% at kick-off, 0% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 94' Olympiakos win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Aris win 0%)
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' Aris win: 53% at kick-off, 100% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 94' Aris win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Olympiakos win 0%)
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 95' Aris win: 53% at kick-off, 0% now
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 95' Olympiakos win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Aris win 0%)
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 95' Aris win: 53% at kick-off, 100% now
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 95' Aris win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Olympiakos win 0%)
96′Aris find the net on 90′. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–0–100
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 96' Aris win: 53% at kick-off, 100% now
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 96' Aris win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Olympiakos win 0%)
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 96' Aris win: 53% at kick-off, 0% now
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 96' Olympiakos win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Aris win 0%)
FTFULL TIME Olympiakos 1–2 Aris
FTOlympiakos 1–2 Aris · Aris win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Olympiakos win23%

Draw24%

Aris win53%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

VenueGSP Stadium

RefereeKyriakos Athanasiou

Line-ups

Olympiakos

Aris

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Olympiakos

Aris

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Aris	4	−2	5
10	Olympiakos	4	0	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Olympiakos

Formation not confirmed

2 C. Frantzis

1 C. Talichmanidis

77 A. Vrikkis

24 M. Tamás

80 Miguel Esteves Sancho Pedro

23 M. Pechlivanis

8 Bruno Paz

26 P. Kynigopoulos

5 Eduardo Kunde

12 Jean Felipe

55 Henrique Gomes

Coach · G. Kostis

Substitutes

4 · A. Doumas

21 · Constantinos christou

29 · K. Irakleous

31 · georgios kitsios

32 · M. Kyriakou

11 · A. Lolis

13 · Nhayson

6 · Georgios Okkas

10 · D. Prokop

9 · Zannetos Savva

20 · georgios tziortzis

14 · Konstantinos Elia

Aris

Formation not confirmed

91 M. Zadro

7 Anderson Correia

27 J. Badelj

8 C. Charalampous

11 R. Effaghe

70 C. El Allachi

29 D. Gaustad

30 Gustavo Pajé

17 M. Matysik

22 V. Nikolić

19 Sane mamadou

Coach · A. Radkov

Substitutes

88 · C. Fi Akamba

23 · Bernardo Folha

21 · D. Galyata

24 · G. Kalulu

16 · Oriyomi Lebi

5 · D. Lelle

78 · Denis Ovsyannikov

18 · B. Szakos

1 · Vaná Alves

99 · Werton

46 · G. Dimitriou

40 · A. Panagiotou

Our number · aris winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

53% The market50%

Us53%

~~Market~~50%

We make Aris a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · aris win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 53% now. The market has gone from 46% to 50% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olympiakos win	23%	23%	0
Draw	24%	27%	−2
Aris win	53%	50%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	50%	49%	+1
Both teams to score	51%	52%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	72%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	28%	29%	−1
Olympiakos or draw	47%	50%	−3
Olympiakos clean sheet	19%	–	–
Aris clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 7.3 11.4 9.5 5.3 2.3 1 6.9 11.4 9.3 5.2 2.3 2 3.6 5.7 4.7 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Olympiakos down, Aris across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,238 1. Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.7% of games this season, across 31 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.83 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Olympiakos at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Aris away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Olympiakos, 1.68 for Aris. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~OLY 0–0 ARI · ARI 2–0 OLY · OLY 0–0 ARI · ARI 5–0 OLY

Form · last six in 1. Division

OLYMPIAKOS

WWDDDD3–1 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 1–1

ARIS

LLDLWD2–3 · 3–4 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Omonia Nicosia	5	+9	11
2	AEK Larnaca	4	+5	9
3	Apollon Limassol	5	+4	9
4	AEL	4	−1	9
5	Apoel Nicosia	5	+4	7
6	Pafos	4	+2	7
7	Omonia Aradippou	4	+1	6
8	Omonia 29is Maiou	4	+2	5
9	Aris	4	−2	5
10	Olympiakos	4	0	4
11	Nea Salamis	5	−2	4
12	Anorthosis	4	−6	3
13	Karmiotissa	5	−6	3
14	Krasava Ypsonas	5	−10	0