Nea Salamis v Pafos prediction · 1. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Nea SalamisDrawPafos

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Pafos 65%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pafos are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nea Salamis 15%, draw 19%, Pafos 65%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Nea Salamis v PafosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Nea Salamis win15%

Draw19%

Pafos win65%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueAmmochostos Stadium

RefereeKonstantinos Fellas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nea Salamis

Pafos

5Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · Cup (Cyprus)

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Pafos	6	+4	11
12	Nea Salamis	6	−4	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pafos winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

65% The market57%

Us65%

~~Market~~57%

We make Pafos a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nea Salamis v Pafos~~0.93 – 2.20

~~Form · 1. Division this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 11~~12 v 5

~~The market · Pafos win~~57% · ours 65%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pafos win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nea Salamis win	15%	19%	−4
Draw	19%	24%	−5
Pafos win	65%	57%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	60%	55%	+5
Both teams to score	53%	53%	0
Over 1.5 goals	81%	77%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	38%	34%	+4
Nea Salamis or draw	35%	43%	−8
Nea Salamis clean sheet	12%	–	–
Pafos clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.3%

0123450 4.9 9.6 10.3 7.5 4.3 2.01 4.2 9.1 9.3 6.7 3.8 2 2.1 4.2 4.4 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nea Salamis down, Pafos across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,251 1. Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.4% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.57 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nea Salamis at home: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Pafos away: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Nea Salamis, 2.20 for Pafos. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.57

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~1 of 7

~~Last meetings~~NEA 0–2 PAF · PAF 4–0 NEA · NEA 0–5 PAF · PAF 0–0 NEA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1. Division this season · since 28 Aug

NEA SALAMIS

DLLWLL3–3 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 2–4

PAFOS

WDWLWD3–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AEL	6	+2	15
2	AEK Larnaca	6	+6	13
3	Omonia Nicosia	6	+9	12
4	Apollon Limassol	6	+6	12
5	Pafos	6	+4	11
6	Aris	6	−1	9
7	Apoel Nicosia	6	+4	8
8	Omonia 29is Maiou	6	+2	8
9	Anorthosis	7	−7	6
10	Olympiakos	7	−1	6
11	Omonia Aradippou	7	−4	6
12	Nea Salamis	6	−4	4
13	Krasava Ypsonas	7	−9	4
14	Karmiotissa	6	−7	3