Krasava Ypsonas v Karmiotissa prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Krasava Ypsonas 2–1 Karmiotissa KRASAVA YPSONAS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Krasava Ypsonas win~~43%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.480

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.548

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Krasava Ypsonas win at 43%.
2′Much as we predicted: Krasava Ypsonas was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
2′KICK-OFF Krasava Ypsonas v Karmiotissa
19′SUBSTITUTION · 17' Krasava Ypsonas · Krasava Ypsonas
24′We said Krasava Ypsonas at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–24–60
24′A goal for Karmiotissa on 23′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 16–24–60
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Krasava Ypsonas 0–1 Karmiotissa
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Krasava Ypsonas win: 43% at kick-off, 16% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Karmiotissa win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Krasava Ypsonas win 16%)
27′A goal for Karmiotissa on 24′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–24–61
27′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Krasava Ypsonas
30′We said Krasava Ypsonas at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 14–24–62
33′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Krasava Ypsonas
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Krasava Ypsonas win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Krasava Ypsonas 1–1 Karmiotissa
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Krasava Ypsonas win: 43% at kick-off, 35% now
44′Krasava Ypsonas score on 41′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 35–40–25
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Karmiotissa win 25%)
45′HALF-TIME Krasava Ypsonas 2–1 Karmiotissa
46′SECOND HALF Krasava Ypsonas 2–1 Karmiotissa
48′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Krasava Ypsonas 2–1 Karmiotissa
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+3' Krasava Ypsonas win: 43% at kick-off, 75% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+3' Krasava Ypsonas win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 19%)
49′Krasava Ypsonas find the net on 45′. 2–1. 2–1 · 76–19–6
49′We published Krasava Ypsonas at 43%. Our model now makes it 76%. 2–1 · 76–19–6
49′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 76–19–6
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+4' Krasava Ypsonas win: 43% at kick-off, 76% now
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Karmiotissa · On: Jael Pawaridihadjo · Off: Panagiotis Tachtsidis
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Karmiotissa · On: Marios Kokinoftas · Off: Christos Wheeler
60′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Bismark Boateng · Krasava Ypsonas
60′🟨 YELLOW · 55' petros psichas · Karmiotissa
62′We published Krasava Ypsonas at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
65′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Marios Kokinoftas · Karmiotissa
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Krasava Ypsonas · On: panagiotis angeli · Off: Rubén Pardo
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Krasava Ypsonas · On: Marco Camús · Off: Yassine Bahassa
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Krasava Ypsonas win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Karmiotissa · On: Theodosis kyprou · Off: petros psichas
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Karmiotissa · On: Nassim Ouammou · Off: Sadio Dembele
73′We published Krasava Ypsonas at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
74′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Krasava Ypsonas
80′We published Krasava Ypsonas at 43%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Krasava Ypsonas · On: Diby Keita · Off: Kevin Luckassen
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Krasava Ypsonas · On: Lysandros Andreas Papastylianou · Off: Vasilios Papafotis
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Karmiotissa · On: Mateja Bajunovic · Off: Aleksandr Martynov
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Krasava Ypsonas win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
87′We published Krasava Ypsonas at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Ruben Garcia · Karmiotissa
FTFULL TIME Krasava Ypsonas 2–1 Karmiotissa
FTKrasava Ypsonas 2–1 Karmiotissa · Krasava Ypsonas win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Krasava Ypsonas are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Krasava Ypsonas 43%, draw 26%, Karmiotissa 30%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Krasava Ypsonas v KarmiotissaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Krasava Ypsonas win43%

Draw26%

Karmiotissa win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueStelios Chari Stadium

RefereeMichalis Louka

Line-ups

Krasava Ypsonas

Karmiotissa

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Krasava Ypsonas

Karmiotissa

3Days since last match8

Last match: 14 Oct · Cup (Cyprus)

Last match: 9 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Karmiotissa	5	−6	3
14	Krasava Ypsonas	5	−10	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Krasava Ypsonas

Formation not confirmed

25 A. Christodoulou

13 Tabekou Ouambé

14 Rubén Pardo

10 V. Papafotis

77 G. Kiakos

30 F. Katelaris

3 L. de Lucas

29 Issam Chebake

42 K. Luckassen

19 N. Boateng

28 Yassine Bahassa

Coach · Marios Neophytou

Substitutes

20 · A. Athanasiou

22 · P. Angeli

75 · Y. Avramenko

9 · E. Budnik

80 · Marco Camus

5 · Kristopher Da Graca

12 · Andreas Georgiou

21 · D. Keita

11 · M. Panagidis

17 · L. Papastylianou

6 · Xavi Quintillà

93 · A. Richter

Karmiotissa

Formation not confirmed

4 S. Dembélé

22 Ruben Garcia

33 Julio Cesar

5 A. Martynov

9 Patrick Luan

21 P. Psychas

10 D. A. Reynolds

77 P. Tachtsidis

6 C. Wheeler

8 C. Yebli

1 N. Giannakopoulos

Coach · Alexandros Garpozis

Substitutes

18 · A. Violaris

70 · themistoklis themistokleous

26 · X. Tabaku

99 · D. Priniotaki

34 · Jael Pawaridihadjo

27 · Manolis Pavlis

19 · S. Panagiotou

42 · N. Ouammou

17 · Theodosis kyprou

20 · Marios Kokkinoftas

97 · Angelos Argyriou

7 · M. Bajunovic

Our number · krasava ypsonas winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:34 · locked at kick-off

43% The market40%

Us43%

~~Market~~40%

We make Krasava Ypsonas a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Krasava Ypsonas v Karmiotissa~~1.42 – 1.13

~~Form · 1. Division this season · since 28 Aug~~W0 D0 L5 · W0 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 0 v 3~~14 v 12

~~The market · Krasava Ypsonas win~~40% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Krasava Ypsonas win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Krasava Ypsonas win	43%	40%	+3
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Karmiotissa win	30%	33%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	47%	49%	−2
Both teams to score	50%	54%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	72%	74%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	28%	−3
Krasava Ypsonas or draw	70%	67%	+3
Krasava Ypsonas clean sheet	33%	–	–
Karmiotissa clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.3 8.8 5.0 1 11.1 12.3 6.9 2.6 2 7.8 8.6 4.8 3 3.8 4.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Krasava Ypsonas down, Karmiotissa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,242 1. Division matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.6% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Krasava Ypsonas at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Karmiotissa away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Krasava Ypsonas, 1.13 for Karmiotissa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~KAR 3–2 KRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · 1. Division this season · since 28 Aug

KRASAVA YPSONAS

LLLLL0–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 1–3

KARMIOTISSA

LDDDL0–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AEK Larnaca	5	+6	12
2	AEL	5	0	12
3	Omonia Nicosia	5	+9	11
4	Pafos	5	+4	10
5	Apollon Limassol	5	+4	9
6	Aris	5	−1	8
7	Apoel Nicosia	5	+4	7
8	Omonia Aradippou	5	0	6
9	Omonia 29is Maiou	5	+1	5
10	Olympiakos	5	−1	4
11	Nea Salamis	5	−2	4
12	Karmiotissa	5	−6	3
13	Anorthosis	5	−8	3
14	Krasava Ypsonas	5	−10	0