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Krasava Ypsonas v Apollon Limassol

Krasava Ypsonas

1–3Full time

Apollon Limassol

1. Division · SAT 10 OCT · Ammochostos Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Krasava Ypsonas 1–3 Apollon Limassol APOLLON LIMASSOL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Apollon Limassol win~~53%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.327

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.215

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Apollon Limassol win at 53%.
1′KICK-OFF Krasava Ypsonas v Apollon Limassol
3′Much as we predicted: Apollon Limassol was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 21–25–53
36′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Apollon Limassol
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Krasava Ypsonas 0–1 Apollon Limassol
41′We published Apollon Limassol at 53%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 4–16–80
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Apollon Limassol win: 53% at kick-off, 80% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Apollon Limassol win: 53% at kick-off, 44% now
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Krasava Ypsonas 1–1 Apollon Limassol
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Apollon Limassol win: 53% at kick-off, 44% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Apollon Limassol win: 53% at kick-off, 80% now
42′⚽ GOAL · 38' Krasava Ypsonas 1–1 Apollon Limassol · Gustavo Assunção
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Apollon Limassol win: 53% at kick-off, 44% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Apollon Limassol win: 53% at kick-off, 80% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 42' Krasava Ypsonas 1–1 Apollon Limassol · Luiyi de Lucas
45′HALF-TIME Krasava Ypsonas 1–1 Apollon Limassol
46′SECOND HALF Krasava Ypsonas 1–1 Apollon Limassol
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Apollon Limassol · On: Alen Ožbolt · Off: Brandon Thomas
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Apollon Limassol · On: Bruno Gaspar · Off: Emanuel Aiwu
54′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Kevin Luckassen · Krasava Ypsonas
63′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Krasava Ypsonas · On: Marco Camús · Off: Yassine Bahassa
63′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Krasava Ypsonas · On: Evgen Budnik · Off: Kevin Luckassen
69′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Gustavo Assunção · Apollon Limassol
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Krasava Ypsonas · On: Michalis Panagidis · Off: Vasilios Papafotis
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Apollon Limassol · On: Ivan Ljubić · Off: Morgan Brown
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Apollon Limassol · On: Dani Escriche · Off: Gaetan Weissbeck
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Luiyi de Lucas · Krasava Ypsonas
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Krasava Ypsonas 1–2 Apollon Limassol · Luiyi de Lucas
81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Krasava Ypsonas 1–2 Apollon Limassol
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Krasava Ypsonas 1–3 Apollon Limassol · Luiyi de Lucas
86′⚽ GOAL · 84' Krasava Ypsonas 1–2 Apollon Limassol
90′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Tabekou Ouambé · Krasava Ypsonas
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Bismark Boateng · Krasava Ypsonas
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Krasava Ypsonas 1–3 Apollon Limassol · Bruno Gaspar
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Krasava Ypsonas 1–3 Apollon Limassol · Garry Rodrigues
FTFULL TIME Krasava Ypsonas 1–3 Apollon Limassol
FTKrasava Ypsonas 1–3 Apollon Limassol · Apollon Limassol win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Krasava Ypsonas win22%

Draw25%

Apollon Limassol win53%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

Venue · Ammochostos Stadium

Referee · Konstantinos Fotiou

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Krasava Ypsonas

Formation not confirmed

25 A. Christodoulou

13 Tabekou Ouambé

14 Rubén Pardo

10 V. Papafotis

77 G. Kiakos

30 F. Katelaris

3 L. de Lucas

29 Issam Chebake

42 K. Luckassen

19 N. Boateng

28 Yassine Bahassa

Coach · Marios Neophytou

Substitutes

22 · P. Angeli

33 · K. Venizelou

93 · A. Richter

75 · Y. Avramenko

9 · E. Budnik

80 · Marco Camus

8 · N. Dosis

12 · Andreas Georgiou

21 · D. Keita

11 · M. Panagidis

17 · L. Papastylianou

6 · Xavi Quintillà

Apollon Limassol

Formation not confirmed

22 P. Kühn

4 E. Aiwu

29 J. Asoro

12 Gustavo Assunção

5 M. Brown

37 L. Konomis

44 J. Kvída

14 G. Malekkides

10 Garry Rodrigues

23 Brandon Thomas

27 G. Weissbeck

Coach · H. Losada

Substitutes

99 · I. Ugbo

31 · K. Stylianou

26 · A. Shikkis

9 · A. Ožbolt

77 · I. Ljubic

76 · Bruno Gaspar

30 · Dani Escriche

38 · K. Balogiannis

19 · Nearchos zinonos

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Krasava Ypsonas

Formation not confirmed

25 A. Christodoulou

13 Tabekou Ouambé

14 Rubén Pardo

10 V. Papafotis

77 G. Kiakos

30 F. Katelaris

3 L. de Lucas

29 Issam Chebake

42 K. Luckassen

19 N. Boateng

28 Yassine Bahassa

Coach · Marios Neophytou

Substitutes

22 · P. Angeli

33 · K. Venizelou

93 · A. Richter

75 · Y. Avramenko

9 · E. Budnik

80 · Marco Camus

8 · N. Dosis

12 · Andreas Georgiou

21 · D. Keita

11 · M. Panagidis

17 · L. Papastylianou

6 · Xavi Quintillà

Apollon Limassol

Formation not confirmed

22 P. Kühn

4 E. Aiwu

29 J. Asoro

12 Gustavo Assunção

5 M. Brown

37 L. Konomis

44 J. Kvída

14 G. Malekkides

10 Garry Rodrigues

23 Brandon Thomas

27 G. Weissbeck

Coach · H. Losada

Substitutes

99 · I. Ugbo

31 · K. Stylianou

26 · A. Shikkis

9 · A. Ožbolt

77 · I. Ljubic

76 · Bruno Gaspar

30 · Dani Escriche

38 · K. Balogiannis

19 · Nearchos zinonos

Our number · apollon limassol winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

53% The market62%

Us53%

~~Market~~62%

We make Apollon Limassol a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · apollon limassol win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 58% to 62% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Krasava Ypsonas win	22%	15%	+6
Draw	25%	22%	+3
Apollon Limassol win	53%	62%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	47%	54%	−7
Both teams to score	47%	50%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	72%	76%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	25%	32%	−7
Krasava Ypsonas or draw	47%	38%	+9
Krasava Ypsonas clean sheet	21%	–	–
Apollon Limassol clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.3 12.6 10.2 5.6 2.4 1 7.3 11.6 9.0 4.9 2.1 2 3.5 5.3 4.2 2.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Krasava Ypsonas down, Apollon Limassol across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,236 1. Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Krasava Ypsonas at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Apollon Limassol away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Krasava Ypsonas, 1.63 for Apollon Limassol. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 16:04. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KRA 0–1 APO · APO 0–3 KRA

Form · last six in 1. Division

KRASAVA YPSONAS

LDLLLL2–5 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–4

APOLLON LIMASSOL

WLDWDD3–2 · 2–5 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Omonia Nicosia	5	+9	11
2	AEK Larnaca	4	+5	9
3	AEL	4	−1	9
4	Pafos	4	+2	7
5	Apollon Limassol	4	+2	6
6	Omonia Aradippou	4	+1	6
7	Omonia 29is Maiou	4	+2	5
8	Aris	4	−2	5
9	Apoel Nicosia	4	+3	4
10	Olympiakos	4	0	4
11	Nea Salamis	4	−1	4
12	Anorthosis	4	−6	3
13	Karmiotissa	5	−6	3
14	Krasava Ypsonas	4	−8	0