Krasava Ypsonas v AEK Larnaca prediction · 1. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Krasava YpsonasDrawAEK Larnaca

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · AEK Larnaca 62%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AEK Larnaca are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Krasava Ypsonas 16%, draw 22%, AEK Larnaca 62%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Krasava Ypsonas v AEK LarnacaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Krasava Ypsonas win16%

Draw22%

AEK Larnaca win62%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueAmmochostos Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Krasava Ypsonas

AEK Larnaca

7Days since last match10

Last match: 24 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)

Last match: 21 Oct · Cup (Cyprus)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	AEK Larnaca	6	+6	13
13	Krasava Ypsonas	7	−9	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aek larnaca winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make AEK Larnaca a 62% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.9, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Krasava Ypsonas v AEK Larnaca~~0.79 – 1.88

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 13~~13 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Krasava Ypsonas win	16%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
AEK Larnaca win	62%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Krasava Ypsonas or draw	38%	–	–
Krasava Ypsonas clean sheet	16%	–	–
AEK Larnaca clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.9%

0123450 7.5 12.9 12.0 7.6 3.7 1 5.6 10.3 9.2 5.7 2.8 2 2.3 4.1 3.7 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Krasava Ypsonas down, AEK Larnaca across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,251 1. Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.4% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Krasava Ypsonas at home: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). AEK Larnaca away: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.79 goals for Krasava Ypsonas, 1.88 for AEK Larnaca. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~AEK 2–1 KRA · KRA 0–4 AEK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 29 Aug

KRASAVA YPSONAS

LLLLWD1–2 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–1

AEK LARNACA

WWLWWD3–1 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AEL	6	+2	15
2	AEK Larnaca	6	+6	13
3	Omonia Nicosia	6	+9	12
4	Apollon Limassol	6	+6	12
5	Pafos	6	+4	11
6	Aris	6	−1	9
7	Apoel Nicosia	6	+4	8
8	Omonia 29is Maiou	6	+2	8
9	Anorthosis	7	−7	6
10	Olympiakos	7	−1	6
11	Omonia Aradippou	7	−4	6
12	Nea Salamis	6	−4	4
13	Krasava Ypsonas	7	−9	4
14	Karmiotissa	6	−7	3